Technically, not a typhoon yet, but looks like developing into one. Interestingly, they are saying the eye is already at the 25 degree line, equal with Taipei, though the bulk of the rain is well south of that, in fact several hundred kms away due east of ppe. Presumably it's going to gather that in in the next couple of days.

ITCZ seems way further north than it ever was last year.

I've noticed that trend of the ITCZ as well. It's odd. These storms at this time of year normally form way south of where they are forming now. And that huge band of moisture SE of us which will presumably be drawn into Haikui gives rise to concern.

In fact it looks like that system could pull the remnants of Saola back into Taiwan. How bizarre would that be!

They are really covering their arses with the margin of error here - basically it's a huge circle - meaning it could go anywhere.

You seem to be right about it pulling Saola back into play - in fact the west coast is copping another bucketing right now.

What's the hell is that high doing to the south where the typhoons usually form? Have you ever seen that before?

Don't like our chances of getting anything while that's there. Hope this is not some weird pattern forming.

That's odd. It's almost like the ITCZ has shifted north a few degrees, but then it wouldn't be 'inter-tropical'. All the current storms are forming well north of normal for this time of year. Very odd.

Yeah, i have to say, the outlook is pretty ordinary at this stage. There is no way we can get any action happening with that high plonked right where they should be forming. And this should be our peak period right now.

They keep saying global warming is meant to increase the prevalence and strength of typhoons, but i am starting to wonder if the opposite might be the case. I can only remember one cat 5 in the last few years - the one that went through the ppe and caused the tour bus disaster in Ilan.

Guess we still have the second half of Aug and Sep, so see what happens.

I think I read somewhere that the equatorial regions would experience the least extreme weather affects from global warming, or that they would be affected later in the process, while regions further from the equator would be affected more. The global weather events so far this year would certainly support that theory.

Yes, that seems to be the case. Read today about a drought in Texas recently that was put down to global warming.

Anyway, good to see that the High they were saying was going to sit south east of us all week seems to have already moved and been replaced by a low, so we might get something afterall. CWB's forcast charts seem to be experiencing problems but it still works if you click on 'animate'.