by dulan drift 
, Thursday, January 09, 2025, 06:30 (99 days ago)
Another incremental ante-upping? Or does it presage a new launchpad phase?
(Taiwan News) – The Coast Guard Administration intercepted a Cameroon-registered container ship with a Chinese name after it was suspected of damaging an undersea cable north of Taiwan on Friday.
This seems to be an occurrence increasing in frequency. It happened around the same time across the globe.
Accident or sabotage? American and European officials disagree as key undersea cables are cut
by dulan drift , Sunday, January 26, 2025, 19:00 (82 days ago) @ dan
There are many vulnerable, yet civilization-crippling targets, out there - that can all be played out in the secret wars theatre - at least until the curtain is finally drawn.
Secrecy is the problem - never benefits normal people - always ends up as corruption.
Sea-cable severing by merchant ships is a classic example of how far you can push the secret war without actual shooting.
Apart from internet/electricity, water is another big, vulnerable one. I guess if you shut off electricity, you shut off water, but it could also be disabled with a targeted computer hack (or a few well-placed explosives at key dams). How's Taipei (or anywhere) gonna go for a week without water? What happens to all those daily shits?
Hard to see that happening on a global level using the 'those in power have too much to lose' theory, but like Dan's limited nuclear war scenario, all of the above could get a theatre-release somewhere, Taiwan maybe.
On another note, as drones/cyberwarfare will feature heavily in any future war, in terms of training soldiers, you're gonna need at least as many computer nerds as traditional soldiers. I wonder if that's reflected in the current training.
Apart from internet/electricity, water is another big, vulnerable one. I guess if you shut off electricity, you shut off water, but it could also be disabled with a targeted computer hack (or a few well-placed explosives at key dams). How's Taipei (or anywhere) gonna go for a week without water? What happens to all those daily shits?
I've been growing more sensitive to this, and scared shitless (no pun intended) at our vulnerability. By 'our' I mean all of us living in places 100% dependent on electricity, because that's at the core -- electricity. Without that, we're fucked. And it can be shut down so easily by natural disasters or, perhaps more effectively, people wanting to do harm.
Covid demonstrated how quickly things can fall apart. Remember the shipping woes? Supply problems? And that was just a virus, and not a very bad one, really. Can you imagine a major volcano, like the Yellowstone Super Volcano? A big ass meteor? A major solar storm?
by dulan drift , Saturday, March 01, 2025, 19:04 (48 days ago) @ dan
Some MSM site: At 9.58am, the Virgin pilot notified Australian air traffic control that he had picked up a Chinese transmission on an international guard (warning) channel, stating that live ammunition was being used in his vicinity.
That would have been an interesting cockpit announcement for the passengers to hear.
The backstory is that CCP war ships have navigated their way though international waters, which are as thin as the Taiwan Strait in terms of closeness to Australian land at some northern points - then dwelt around 70km off of the coast of Sydney. They're now conducting live-fire drills between NZ & Aus.
That's provocative, but legal according to international practice. They're all doing it. I'm sure CCP has no trouble justifying that as a retaliatory tactic.
The strange bit is though, no-one appears to have been notified that firing had commenced - in a busy flight route. Not by Aus Gov anyway - first they heard was from a Chinese transmission.
The Albo gov are terrified to say anything that might be even vaguely offensive to Totalitarianism. Either they're covering up for the CCP again so as not to harm our shameful dependence on them, for everything ... or they really don't have any idea what's going on. Being treated by CCP with the disdain they deserve.
Australia is a long way from Taiwan, but a lot closer than America. At the very least it would be a critical supply chain inflection point.
It's, as with all CCP globo-positioning, an incremental brewing story.
by dulan drift , Wednesday, March 12, 2025, 10:23 (37 days ago) @ dulan drift
It's hard to think of a better window for the invasion of Taiwan than right now.
1. Trump has blown-up traditional ally relationships mitigating against a united response - in fact China will be seen as a better, more reliable partner by many countries.
2. He has no political morality - so he's unlikely to care if Taiwan is invaded - in fact he may prefer it. He (& other leaders) actually likes dealing with totalitarian regimes - less moving parts, meaning they (Xi, Putin, Trump/Musk, Kim Jong-un) can play their grand theatre performance without disruption from smaller (democratic) actors.
3. CCP's blockade tactics have been rehearsed & are ready to roll.
4. It's not typhoon season - doubt they'd undertake a massive operation if a typhoon could ruin all their planning.
5. If not now, when? China currently holds all the best economic cards - enough to cripple countries that oppose it. That may not last forever.