A few statements in the latest JTWC prognosis give me reason to believe this storm may hold some surprises. Specifically:

TY 10W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD
DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS.

The word 'drift' doesn't give me comfort.

UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TY 10W SHOULD
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY NEAR A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 48, WHICH SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTO TAU 72 BEFORE LANDFALL.

So it's going to intensify and drift. The above statement assumes the storm will not make landfall on Taiwan, but even if it doesn't, it's going to give us a lot of action as it drifts and intensifies on our east porch.

TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE MUST CURRENTLY REMAIN LOW DUE
TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND CAUTION IN THE NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK MOTION TIMING.

So, it's drifting, intensifying, and we're not really sure where it's going to go.

Full bulletin copied below.

WDPN31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 310445Z TRMM 85 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLCC AS WELL AS A LACK OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TRACK MOTION OVER
THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS BEEN SLOW AND MEANDERING AS TY 10W IS
CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, TRMM IMAGE, AND
PGTW FIX, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, ALONG WITH AN
APPROXIMATELY 75 PERCENT DEVELOPED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE TRMM IMAGE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 10W CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
CELL TO THE WEST FILLS INTO TROUGHING. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS
WELL DEFINED AND IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) OVER THE LLCC BUT
REACHES MODERATE TO STRONG LEVELS NEAR 25N DUE TO OUT-OF- PHASE
LOWER- AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FROM INFLOW INTO TS 11W, AS EVIDENT IN
THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD
DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS.
BY TAU 48 THE STR TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THE NER AS
THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE CAUSING AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK SPEED. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TY 10W SHOULD
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY NEAR A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 48, WHICH SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTO TAU 72 BEFORE LANDFALL.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, WITH A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER,
LEADING TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NORTHWESTWARD TURN NEAR TAU 48. THE EGRR IS THE LEFT MOST OUTLIER
WITH AN ABRUPT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BEFORE COMING BACK INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. THE GFDN IS THE RIGHT
MOST OUTLIER BUT HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS
(CONW) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN CONW DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY LEFT OF CONW DURING TAUS 36-72 TO OFFSET THE
OUTLIERS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE MUST CURRENTLY REMAIN LOW DUE
TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND CAUTION IN THE NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK MOTION TIMING.//
NNNN