back to business

Ok, the concert is over and it was a resounding success and now we can get back to the business of willing typhoons in without really being able to explain why you would have that urge.

And exhibit A is the one that's been brewing and was threatening rain as late as midday but has now gathered itself and is forecast to make a direct hit in our neighborhood.
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Saola. Such a tender, feminine sounding name. I wonder what we'll be saying about her three days from now.

And I don't think I've ever seen a combination of storm forecasts like the one below.

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Who knows what Saola is going to do at this point. Earlier in the game, the JTWC was sending her right into Donghe, discounting models that had Damrey pulling her north. Now, most models are putting Saola on a slighly more NNW track.Apparently Damrey is going to be a player in this show after all.

Somebody somewhere is going to get a shitload of rain. That's my prediction.

From JTWC 1207292208 Taiwan time:

C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE
DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS WITH NOGAPS AND GFS TRACKING THE SYSTEM NORTH
OF TAIWAN AND THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER
TAIWAN. THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE
IMPROVES AS TS 10W MOVES TOWARDS THE STR LOCATED OVER CHINA AND
JAPAN.//

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Apart from the element of uncertainty, the other thing is the slow pace of the typhoon due to the lack of a strong steering influence - and it may even slow down more than they are predicting. (Spoke to an avid chaser at Sugar today and he thinks a loop is even possible.) This makes it a potentially very dangerous typhoon as it takes longer to pass and historically, slow moving typhoons of about this strength have been the most destructive (Marakot, Nari). Will be an interesting one to watch.

Chart shows the high well north of the typhoon resulting in a reduction of the high's steering influence. However, the low pressure to the north of Saola, being much closer to the high can more confidently be predicted to follow the contoured ridge of the high and at a much faster pace.

Meanwhile the low behind Saola to the east would have to be an excellent chance to develop as well.
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It's still moving slowly and erratically - is this the start of a loop it is doing now?
Wild winds up here last night and today - my gustimate is about 70kph.

Hasn't been that much rain - only about 20ml so far.

How things looking your end?

Pretty much the same here. We've had some good gusts and a few heavy periods of rain, but otherwise it's been subdued. It seems to have practically stalled - not a good sign, or a good sign if you want to get hammered by three days of rain soon.

This is a tough one to call. When's it going to move?

It looks like we'll be getting the brunt of it over the next 24-36 hours. The question that remains is whether it will head on it's way politely or decide to dilly dally and give us hell.

A few statements in the latest JTWC prognosis give me reason to believe this storm may hold some surprises. Specifically:

TY 10W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD
DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS.

The word 'drift' doesn't give me comfort.

UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TY 10W SHOULD
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY NEAR A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 48, WHICH SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTO TAU 72 BEFORE LANDFALL.

So it's going to intensify and drift. The above statement assumes the storm will not make landfall on Taiwan, but even if it doesn't, it's going to give us a lot of action as it drifts and intensifies on our east porch.

TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE MUST CURRENTLY REMAIN LOW DUE
TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND CAUTION IN THE NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK MOTION TIMING.

So, it's drifting, intensifying, and we're not really sure where it's going to go.

Full bulletin copied below.

WDPN31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 310445Z TRMM 85 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLCC AS WELL AS A LACK OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TRACK MOTION OVER
THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS BEEN SLOW AND MEANDERING AS TY 10W IS
CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, TRMM IMAGE, AND
PGTW FIX, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, ALONG WITH AN
APPROXIMATELY 75 PERCENT DEVELOPED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE TRMM IMAGE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 10W CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
CELL TO THE WEST FILLS INTO TROUGHING. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS
WELL DEFINED AND IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) OVER THE LLCC BUT
REACHES MODERATE TO STRONG LEVELS NEAR 25N DUE TO OUT-OF- PHASE
LOWER- AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FROM INFLOW INTO TS 11W, AS EVIDENT IN
THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD
DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS.
BY TAU 48 THE STR TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THE NER AS
THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE CAUSING AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK SPEED. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TY 10W SHOULD
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY NEAR A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 48, WHICH SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTO TAU 72 BEFORE LANDFALL.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, WITH A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER,
LEADING TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NORTHWESTWARD TURN NEAR TAU 48. THE EGRR IS THE LEFT MOST OUTLIER
WITH AN ABRUPT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BEFORE COMING BACK INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. THE GFDN IS THE RIGHT
MOST OUTLIER BUT HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS
(CONW) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN CONW DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY LEFT OF CONW DURING TAUS 36-72 TO OFFSET THE
OUTLIERS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE MUST CURRENTLY REMAIN LOW DUE
TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND CAUTION IN THE NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK MOTION TIMING.//
NNNN

it's amazing what a difference a bit of elevation makes - just went down to Dulan to get some dinner and it was pretty calm - but up here there's a definite sense of a typhoon blowing. Can also notice the different effect from when it is turning away from us and when it is coming towards us - there was a three hour period where it 'drifted' due east (thought it might be a loop, but not)and the winds did drop off. But starting to whilstle through now again so suspect it's wandering back our way.

Serious rainfall in Yilan. There are places with 600 ml and counting from yesterday to today. Was planning on making a furniture run to TP this weekend but doubt the Su Hwa highway will survive this.

Should be a new graph from CWB any minute - will post it when it comes up.

Here's the latest graph:

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Driving rain here and some window shaking gusts

We're getting very hard rain here too. We've been getting high winds on and off all day. One gust actually almost (I caught it) blew over a full 500cc can of beer. What would that be on the Beaufort scale? I'm going to work on that new Beaufort scale tomorrow. But for now, here are some items that will have to be placed strategically on the scale (all have happened to me):

Lawn chairs blowing
Difficulty of rolling a cigarette (at least three levels to this one)
Lids blown of pots left in outdoor kitchen
Pots in outdoor kitchen blown away
Full beer blown over (almost)
Motorcycle blown over
Laundry disappears

That's a start. I'll get a wiki page going for it tomorrow. For now, a movie to watch before it gets too noisy with this wind and rain.

We just had a massive gust. It's going to be a crazy night, at least in this neck of the woods.

Like your Beaufort Scale and yeah, has kicked up a notch in the last hour - with a few real house shakers. Must have a pretty big sphere of high wind this typhoon.

There was a full-scale party here last night for the concert workers - i think it was wilder than the actual concert - and the typhoon was blowing up and seemed to be adding to the effect so that every time a huge gust came through it was spontaneously cheered - not sure whether that goes on the Beaufort scale for wind or drunkeness.

CWB is predicting gusts of up to 95kts for tomorrow and the next day for south-east off-shore. That's some serious wind. You wanna hold on tight to your beer can for that.

This is an interesting sat pic - shows a massive amount of rain and even a possible periphery circulation within the main typhoon to our south. If it follows the predicted path this will get dragged over us and could be substantial.

[image]

I noticed that huge cell south of Taiwan, and it's still there this morning. Odd, I got up this morning, the sun is out, it's breezy for sure but there's by standing outside you'd think it had left town. Apparently not.

Once this thing heads west, that cell south of us is going to come north. The question seems to be which side of the island is going to get it. I'd bet on Pingtung-Kaohsiung taking the brunt of it, but we'll see. It may sneak under the peninsula and give us show.

Getting some massive gusts right now! It surprises me a bit considering the eye is not really that close to us. Need the shutters down coz it's window popping level.

now it has weirdly calmed right down. The eye has edged just north of us so i guess that's the reason. May start to see a wind change soon, though the light breeze that i have at the moment is still coming from ne.

Guessing we will move into the rain stage of the typhoon later today or tonight.

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It started raining just as I was reading your message. I think the heaviest rain will be when the tail of the storm comes our way, maybe tomorrow. The CWB is giving us only a 40% chance of rain tomorrow. That seems odd.

It has started it's turn. Our rain is coming from the south now. This is when it gets ugly for us because it rains onto our only porch!

Just had a lone gust come through from the south - not huge - but a step up from what it has been.

That cell that was in the tail does appear to have largely dissipated, so i think that's pretty much it for us. Meanwhile, Ilan and Keelung are getting the brunt of it, though it's all in the front half - once that passes it'll be all over.

They are still saying the eye is going to graze the north eastern tip of Taiwan, but looking at this radar image it seems like it is ducking in well south of that and may make landfall in Ilan. Time will tell i guess.

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Yea, the storm is doing a little loop. They're still saying it's going to shoot off to the NW, but that movement hasn't started yet. It looks like it's stalling over the middle of the island. The central west coast and mountains are going to get hammered.

The loop so far.

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Pretty poor work from CWB i would have thought. Where's the passion for getting the correct info out there? Especially when it's of potentially life and death importance. The radar images from last night clearly showed that the typhoon was heading inland, 100's of kms south from where they were predicting it to go, but they neglected to correct their forecast track which still showed it staying well off the coast and just glancing the north east tip. Sometimes i wonder if they even bother looking at their own radar and sat images instead of just playing with their computer generated models.

The current situation looks pretty dire for central Taiwan. Would expect massive landslides and major damage. Those people really could have done with a bit more warning. Let's hope there aren't any lives lost due to this incompetent bungle.

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Yea failure to even come close to an accurate prediction for this storm is entirely inexcusable. It's still not moving at any meaningful speed. It was stationary for over six hours while in its loop.

The following article states that seven Taiwan deaths have resulted, and that's an old article, out of Boston no less.

http://bo.st/QhGUBc

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