War in Taiwan 2024 - Formosahut forum

Let's say China does invade, overwhelms Taiwan's military, holds the island, or most of it.

Then what? Coalition forces bomb Taiwan - try to retake it?

Or do they bomb targets in China, as well?

Both parties would likely prefer to keep it contained - along the lines of the Ukraine War - so bombing China is a big step - invites retaliation. That's your WW3 scenario.

Though even if it's limited to Taiwan, the economic fallout would be colossal. Controlling chip production alone would be crippling.

That might be the war game CCP plays - prep-up with steel, essentials, launch a contained war on Taiwan (that doesn't damage the chip factories) - sink everyone else by shutting down the supply chain. See who blinks first.

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war in taiwan

Both parties would likely prefer to keep it contained - along the lines of the Ukraine War - so bombing China is a big step - invites retaliation. That's your WW3 scenario.

Yes, and maybe contained to outlying islands or some skirmish in the S. China Sea, perhaps involving the Philippines. It might even use a Philippine conflict as a proxy play war.

Though even if it's limited to Taiwan, the economic fallout would be colossal. Controlling chip production alone would be crippling.

That might be the war game CCP plays - prep-up with steel, essentials, launch a contained war on Taiwan (that doesn't damage the chip factories) - sink everyone else by shutting down the supply chain. See who blinks first.

But there's another series of scenarios here, and that is one in which both China and the US benefit from a controlled conflict. And this could take any number of forms, such as one involving the Philippines or contested islands.

Here's the thing. China's economy is tanking. The US has printed so much currency it's laughable. None of this can go on much longer. But if they have a controlled conflict, both countries have an excuse to reign in or otherwise overhaul their economies and currencies. You can imagine how a skirmish in the South China Sea, perhaps including something happening on one of Taiwan's islands, or that of the Philippines, when combined with a cyberattack on some critical infrastructure and, of course, some major development in the war in the Middle East could propel economies into major changes.

My point is that Chinese and US banking infrastructure could benefit from a limited war, one that doesn't destroy chip infrastructure or even drive Taiwan closer to reunification. All it has to do is help the Man strengthen his control and make people fall in line.

The Man is in China and the US. They're partners. They'll have play wars. Real wars would use nukes, right? Isn't that what war is? Kill everybody on the other side until they relent? Men, women, children, dogs, cats, babies, kill them all. Isn't that what the US did in WWII?

So, the US and China won't do that. They'll do something that benefits each side. It will be something shocking but, I'm guessing, not terribly devastating, well, aside from the thousands of lives of peasants that will be lost.

And it will be combined with other events to convince those peasants who were spared to do what the Man says, and thank him for helping them out.

And there will be parades and maybe new public holidays.

My point is that Chinese and US banking infrastructure could benefit from a limited war, one that doesn't destroy chip infrastructure or even drive Taiwan closer to reunification. All it has to do is help the Man strengthen his control and make people fall in line.

That's the key point that i can't escape - there's too much to lose on either side for a full-scale war.

The Man is in China and the US. They're partners. ... They'll do something that benefits each side. It will be something shocking but, I'm guessing, not terribly devastating, well, aside from the thousands of lives of peasants that will be lost.

Yep, they have far more in common with each other in terms of 'crowd control' than they do with the 'crowd'. They don't give a shit about some peasants dying, so long as it's happening on TV in some quarantined theatre.

And it will be combined with other events to convince those peasants who were spared to do what the Man says, and thank him for helping them out.

And there will be parades and maybe new public holidays.

Haha!

Today people in Taiwan received an English emergency text warning of a 'missile flyover' from China towards Taiwan - though in fact it was mis-translation of 'satellite launch'. Bet that got a few foreigner hearts pumping.

With all the people in Taiwan who speak great English, you'd think one of them would get the job of translating emergency attack messages.

Taiwan's election is between a Lie, a Cur, & a Ho.

I'm actually hoping Ke Wen-je does well, just to shake up the duopoly. He gets attacked for his China position, but it seems not too bad - he's vowed to continue Tsai Ing-wen's autonomy policy but to try & take some heat out of the relationship with China. Sounds sensible enough.

I noticed Ma Ing-jiu has weighed in saying Taiwan needs to "trust Xi Jin-ping" - but even the KMT candidate has distanced himself from that. The days of anyone talking up reunification appear to be dead & buried.

On a somewhat related note, I watched a good program about ties between China and Russia today. There was nothing really new in it for me, but it was refreshing to see a more in-depth look at the evolving relationship and what it means for the world and Taiwan, rather than the usual sound bites.

Looks like a comfortable win to Lai Ching-de. He seems pretty smart, has experience as VP.

CCP is pissed though.

Ch ambassador to Aus: If Australia is tied to the chariot of Taiwan separatist forces (Lai government), the Australian people would be pushed over the edge of an abyss.

At least we know wolf diplomacy is not dead. Imagine if the Aus ambassador said: If China is tied to the chariot of Totalitarian forces, the Chinese people would be pushed over the edge of an abyss.

Will watch the video tonight, but possibly related to that Russia-China collusion, i see the US has been dragged into (or gotten itself into) fighting with the Houthis - who seem to be waging a proxy front for Iran. We talked about a possible plan to light fires in order to stretch US forces, this might be Stage 2 of that.

At least we know wolf diplomacy is not dead. Imagine if the Aus ambassador said: If China is tied to the chariot of Totalitarian forces, the Chinese people would be pushed over the edge of an abyss.

Good point!

It sounds like the ambassador has been taking lessons from Kim Jong Un.

I just had a great idea for toy line. Create dolls of all these idiots with a string in the back. One of those dolls where you pull the string out and it says something in a squeaky voice. They can be loaded with their most outlandish quotes.

Of course, it would be hard to bring that idea to fruition because they probably only make such dolls in China now!

I just had a great idea for toy line. Create dolls of all these idiots with a string in the back. One of those dolls where you pull the string out and it says something in a squeaky voice. They can be loaded with their most outlandish quotes.

Brilliant idea! They would make great election merchandise. You could clean up with the US election this year.

I wanna put in a pre-order for a Dan Andrews doll.

Taiwan's election is between a Lie, a Cur, & a Ho.

I'm actually hoping Ke Wen-je does well, just to shake up the duopoly. He gets attacked for his China position, but it seems not too bad - he's vowed to continue Tsai Ing-wen's autonomy policy but to try & take some heat out of the relationship with China. Sounds sensible enough.

According to this live feed at 8:20PM on election day Japan time, Ke has over 25% of the vote, which is astonishing. Taiwan is clearly a multi-party democracy now, which is great. I wish I could say the same for the US.

I noticed that live feed has ocean surf as the audio track. Well done.

Taiwan News — Former U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss reportedly lobbied her government to allow the sale of military equipment to China three months after she was paid nearly NT$3.6 million to visit Taiwan.

Politico reported on Tuesday (Jan. 16) that documents show Truss secretly lobbied a top U.K. trade official to allow a business selling landmine disposal equipment to export to China. Experts said the equipment could be used by China in an invasion of Taiwan.

This is what Taiwan is up against. Greedy skullduggery by world influencers. If the report is true, it's stark evidence of what Dan said about the MAN - it transcends the staged political theatre - it's everywhere.

This quote stood out:

Paul Huang (黃柏彰), a research fellow at the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, told Taiwan News that Truss’s visit to Taiwan highlights the “extreme wishful thinking and incompetence” of the foreign ministry and the Prospect Foundation, the latter of which invited Truss to Taiwan.

Some Taiwanese no doubt have an overly idealistic and simple view of the intentions and priorities of some western countries. Many actually believe Trump cares about them and will have their back if reelected, for example. Trump couldn't even find Taiwan on a map.

Some Taiwanese no doubt have an overly idealistic and simple view of the intentions and priorities of some western countries. Many actually believe Trump cares about them and will have their back if reelected, for example. Trump couldn't even find Taiwan on a map.

My concern is he would see Taiwan as a bargaining chip - to be traded away in 'the art of the deal'. At least Biden made some semi-doddering remarks about militarily defending Taiwan (which his team tried to walk-back), but I haven't heard anything from Trump on that score.

This is rhetoric from the CCP about the prospect of a Trump victory, but it makes some sense. Actually, we've made similar points before.

Taiwan News: TAO (CCP's Taiwan Affairs Office) spokesperson Chen Binhua (陳斌華) said that the U.S. will always pursue an "America First" policy and "Taiwan will change from a 'pawn' to an 'abandoned pawn' at any time.

Taiwan does control the world so far as computers go - it's a bit more than a pawn. A chip-in-the-game would be a better analogy - a big one. So Trump would want a lot for it - but if he saw it to his personal advantage, my feeling is he would Make-the-Deal.

During an interview with Fox News on July 16, 2023, anchor Maria Bartiromo asked Trump whether the U.S. should defend Taiwan if China invades. Trump said he did not want to reveal his thoughts on the matter because it would "put me in a very bad negotiating position."

He then alleged, "Taiwan did take all of our chip business."

Taiwan News: TAO (CCP's Taiwan Affairs Office) spokesperson Chen Binhua (陳斌華) said that the U.S. will always pursue an "America First" policy and "Taiwan will change from a 'pawn' to an 'abandoned pawn' at any time.

This is one instance in which I agree entirely with the CCP! The US has a long history of abandoning supposed allies.

My take is that a Biden win will result in a more level-headed, strategically based approach to benefit the military-industrial machine of the US, while a Trump win will result in a cluster fuck of instability based on his own warped, paranoid perception of how he can best survive and increase his own wealth. And stay out of jail.

Taiwan does control the world so far as computers go - it's a bit more than a pawn. A chip-in-the-game would be a better analogy - a big one. So Trump would want a lot for it - but if he saw it to his personal advantage, my feeling is he would Make-the-Deal.

He'll make any deal to save his own neck. He'd probably throw his own family under the bus if he thought it would save his neck.

Things seem to be heating up quite rapidly in the last few days. Here's a snapshot. Am I missing anything?

Feb 15: On Feb. 15, two Chinese fishermen drowned about one nautical mile off the archipelago after being chased by Taiwan's coast guard. The incident occurred after the fishermen entered prohibited waters in the area and attempted to flee. http://url.site25.net/86

Feb 17: Zhu also stated that there are no prohibited or restricted waters surrounding the Kinmen Islands. (Zhu Fenglian, a spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office). http://url.site25.net/87

Feb 18: China announced on Sunday that its coast guard would begin regular patrols and set up law enforcement activity around the Kinmen islands, following the death of two Chinese nationals fleeing Taiwan's coast guard having entered into restricted waters too close to Kinmen. http://url.cailab.net/cl

Feb 19: Six Chinese coast guard officers on Monday boarded a Taiwanese tourist boat carrying 11 crew and 23 passengers to check its route plan, certificate and crew licences, leaving around half an hour later, Taiwan's coast guard said. http://url.cailab.net/cl

Feb 20: Taiwan drives away Chinese coast guard boat as frontline island tensions rise. http://url.cailab.net/cl

Feb 23: Chinese delegation in Taiwan's Kinmen for talks related to fatal speedboat incident. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/5101437

The statement by Zhu on Feb 17 seems to be the most ominous. I can imagine how they could start extending this to the other outlying islands, the Penghu, etc.

The Feb 19 boarding is also worrying. I can see this tactic being increased. At what point could it include container ships? Ships thought to be carrying weapons?

Feb 19: Six Chinese coast guard officers on Monday boarded a Taiwanese tourist boat carrying 11 crew and 23 passengers to check its route plan, certificate and crew licences, leaving around half an hour later, Taiwan's coast guard said. http://url.cailab.net/cl

This is a classic micro-aggression that the CCP loves to do - incrementally increase pressure in order to gradually move the line without the wider public being fully-aware that it's being moved. Each incident doesn't seem like much, but when you accumulate them over years, it adds up. The goal is to slowly normalize their envelopment.

As for the speedboat incident, you can see the CCP is itching for any possible trigger to justify more noose-tightening.

Although Taiwanese politics on a local level can be quite luan-chi-ba-zao - some guy was hospitalized in a parliamentary brawl a few days ago - at the top level, they do produce some very astute operators. Lai seems to be of that ilk.

It's precarious work - being leader of a (small) country at the epicentre of a potential world war between super powers. No good being a hot-head. Gotta choose your words carefully - stand your ground without going over the top.

Chen Shui-bien had the 'One China on either side of the strait' - Tsai had her 'We won't be declaring independence coz we already are' line - Lai, a doctor, is following that prescription.

Lai: On this day in 1996, Taiwan's first democratically elected president took the oath of office, conveying to the international community that the Republic of China Taiwan is a sovereign, independent nation in which sovereignty lies in the hands of the people.

It's a nifty move to quietly formalize Taiwan Independence Day as: May 20, 1996

Dan, you were probably in Taiwan then - i arrived shortly after, dodging missiles on the flight in.

As always, it's a matter of how far you can poke the bear. CCP will probably do something annoying as a reaction. They do hate Lai coz he was a known independence advocate in his earlier days, though his tone is quite measured now.

Yes, he seems to be off to a good start. Something tells me he's going to need every ounce of his smarts and diplomatic skills over his term(s).

I think we may have been on Guam when those in May of 96... that's about the time we moved there. I guess I could always check the old passport!

The first thing that came to mind when I saw this was a Trojan Horse! I wonder what the digital-economic-AI equivalent of that would be.

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Haha! That horse does look suspicious.

I see China has launched their inevitable response - military exercises surrounding the island for two days.

One factor that could lend weight to considerations of a near-future invasion is that some countries are (super belatedly) waking up to the fact that they're hopelessly dependent on China & exposed in terms of any conflict re supply of essential goods. Australia is a prime example. Finally there are some noises from the government, like they've just worked that reality out, & money is being thrown at certain industries (in this case the battery industry) to address it. It would still take 5-10 years probably, & it doesn't solve the problem of the shelves at major stores emptying overnight, but CCP may calculate that it's better to strike while they still have that capacity to cripple countries economically.

There's a lot of scenarios war-gamed involving military hardware, but not enough done focusing on what it will be like economically. If people can't buy cellphones, computers, & medicines (or any factory products, really), that's a weapon in itself. Even if you win the war, it doesn't solve it.

The US is far ahead of Australia (though still vulnerable), but there are many other countries that are in Australia's predicament. It's culpable stupidity & greed that it's been allowed to get to this point, but it has.

DW recently made a documentary about exactly that topic. I think this is it.

CCP put out a {pretty crappy) video simulating an attack on Taiwan. In the video, Taipei, Kaohsiung, & Hualien get blown off the map.

I still think it's all going to come down to fiat currency validity and health. The system is breaking down quite rapidly in the sense the it's starting to affect social order, and when social order breaks down, war happens.

There's this global interdependence of markets, as we've discussed with regards to trade, but it also plays into fiat and the USD as the reserve currency. That currency hegemony is getting attacked and it will eventually be toppled. It might take 500 years, or five. But it's inevitable as history shows.

But beyond all that is that the global monetary system is absolutely fucked. How long can countries print money and expect that money to be taken seriously?

When it costs 100x to buy a loaf of bread, what happens?

But beyond all that is that the global monetary system is absolutely fucked. How long can countries print money and expect that money to be taken seriously?

Guess we're about to find out ...

I watched (most of) the DW video. It's been as plain as day for nearly 30 years that allowing yourself to become reliant on a totalitarian regime was/is an idiotic strategy. Someone talks about it being a 'different attitude' back then (getting into bed with CCP), which is a normal way to shirk all responsibility. Why was it a different attitude? Attitude by whom?

It's interesting the video was made during the initial years of 'Corona'. Covid marked an unceremonious pivot-away point (by the US) from the pivot to China. Nothing changed apart from that - China was persecuting HK, Tibetan, Uyghur, Falun Gong people & threatening Taiwan before Covid - it had just been profitable not to talk about it.

There's a tacit understanding now by govts that it did come from the Wuhan lab, but it's best not to talk about it, seeing how we dutifully helped cover it up. Only question is was it deliberately released with a goal in mind? It definitely works as a weapon. Worked great.

The total back-flip towards China, suggests some intel indicating it was deliberate. Otherwise why backflip?

On the medicine reliance scandal, there are still shortages in Aus on crucial drugs, including antibiotics.

9 News: There are currently 424 medicines listed on the Therapeutic Goods Administration's (TGA) medicine shortage database, at least 20 of those are at critically low levels.

Unlike the DW story, there's no questioning, whatsoever, by 9 News of the shortage being caused by becoming utterly reliant on China.

There's a tacit understanding now by govts that it did come from the Wuhan lab, but it's best not to talk about it, seeing how we dutifully helped cover it up. Only question is was it deliberately released with a goal in mind? It definitely works as a weapon. Worked great.

The total back-flip towards China, suggests some intel indicating it was deliberate. Otherwise why backflip?

Interesting point. I wonder if that has anything to do with this recent development:

US government suspends funding for virus research group at center of Covid-19 origin controversy

The US Department of Health and Human Services on Wednesday suspended funding to EcoHealth Alliance, a virus research organization tied to controversy about the origins of the virus that causes Covid-19. The agency also proposed the group be blocked from receiving federal funds in the future, possibly for years.

You can see the strategy - it's a tried & true one: deny, cover-up, vilify - then years later quietly defund one person (out of many) that contributed to the cause - & that's it.

No actual accountability for killing 15 mil (& counting), covering it up to protect the CCP, or causing massive world-wide impacts - from which all the lead actors profited big-time.

Daszak was always going to be the 'scapegoat' (even though there are no real consequences) coz he's such a baffoon. But how about WHO, which appointed him as their lead investigator to claim that a lab-exit was 'extremely unlikely'? It's an obvious lie - where's their punishment?

Or the Proximal Origin authors (Holmes, Andersen, Lipkin, Rambaut, Garry) with their ridiculous 'pangolin paper'? All of whom were rewarded with massive funding boosts for spreading their disinformation.

Or Fauci, Collins & Farrar who masterminded the cover-up? Farrar is now WHO's chief scientist spearheading the frightening push by WHO to gain even more global power.

Given the result, if i'm the CCP or one of their associated western scientists, i'm busily working on engineering the next 'Disease X' - coz it's just so profitable/empowering - & nothing happens to you.

China seeks detention of foreigners in disputed South China Sea | South China Sea News | Al Jazeera

I think we discussed the eventuality of this in a different thread, maybe this one.

It's a move towards a slow, gradual embargo. All they have to do is detain ships, people, flights, etc., with even the flimsiest of legal framework, and it could be done a little at a time, as the above story suggests.

When does exceptional become normal? At one point does that happen? So they might detain a fishing boat, then a ferry or plane (i.e., because there's a terrorist on board).

They've already started taking seizing food airdropped for Philippine forces.

So, what's the order here? First food, then maybe boats and the people on them, then perhaps some shipping vessel, then a plane? And then exceptional becomes normal?

Like building islands.

Smart, I give them that. And it will work because they can always throw the US off balance. Just as the British are way better than Americans at, well, English, but particularly humor and wit, Chinese are way better at political and military taichi.

So, what's the order here? First food, then maybe boats and the people on them, then perhaps some shipping vessel, then a plane? And then exceptional becomes normal?

Like building islands.

And taking economic control of whole countries, such as Australia. Or capturing the world's academic community & global bodies as we saw with Covid. This strategy of incrementalization has been decades in the making, dating back to Deng Xiao-ping & the implementation of the United Front Work Dept. It's worked brilliantly - they're not gonna deviate from that course - the gradual accumulation of control.

Somewhere in that continuum, some undefined, unheralded moment, the balance of power shifts. It's not impossible to reverse it, but it's very hard, & requires a will-power that is non-existent amongst government & industry actors.

In the Australia example, not only has the CCP taken effective control, but those who ceded it have become addicted to this arrangement/money to the point that they will actively fight to protect it, even when an overwhelming number of their own countrymen are strongly against it. This surrender of sovereignty (to all intents & purposes) was justified by the oxymoron of 'economic rationalism' - the same argument used to resist doing anything about resolving the problem.

Ultimately, this death by a thousand cuts is a good argument for being proactive about Taiwan - go ahead & recognize it as a country, which it is. Do something to upset this apple-cart of subsumption. What's the worst that could happen? China launches an attack? If the plan is to gradually strangle Taiwan into submission anyway, would it not be better to throw a spanner into their works? Get them involved on a battlefield they didn't want to be on. The best outcome is if you call their bluff, they may actually back down.

Unfortunately, that's all pie-in-the-sky coz of the above dependence that has already accumulated.

Are EV's the new cell-phone? They're equipped with all the tracking technology. Their production (including Tesla) is dominated by China. It's another one of those 'soft-bang' scenarios where we get gradually swamped before you fully realize what's happening.

I'm not against EV's philosophically, but again, due to the oil industry's self-interested resistance to them, China has filled the void. They already control medicine, phones/computers, electronics - now cars are the next take-over target. The US does seem to be waking up to this, but there are still a lot of countries with their heads buried firmly in the sand.

I've been wondering about this as well, not just about EVs but 'new' cars in general which are loaded with all sorts of unnecessary tech.

On top of that, we have tracking and surveillance devices invading our homes. The old discussion about body implants and such is just that, old and outdated. They're achieving the same ends with the crap we voluntarily buy and put in our homes and pockets.

Thinking about the Philippines escalations you raised, could it be that Xi is thinking to take a section of PPE as his first move? Strategically, it would make sense - make Taiwan easier to hold if you already have a base in northern PPE.

Here's some more diu-lien (face-losing) Aus behaviour:

Chinese Premier Li Qiang agreed to better communication between the countries after meetings in Canberra this week.
Li departed Australia as videos and photos of clashes between Chinese coastguard personnel and navy personnel from the Philippines during a confrontation in the South China Sea were released.
The Philippines said Monday's interception by Chinese vessels left two of its ships damaged and sailors injured, including one who lost a thumb

Classic 'fuck you' going out the door that CCP always marks their meetings with Aus leaders - it's almost funny - promising better military communications as you blindside them on military escalation.

The Australian government (whoever that is) said it was gravely concerned by the Chinese actions.
"This is an escalation in a pattern of deeply concerning and destabilising behaviour by China."

They got that right, so they can't plead ignorance. It's another way of putting Dan's accumulation continuum. Which explains a lot of things in life, actually, not only China's strategy.

"This conduct endangers peace and security in the region, threatens lives and livelihoods, and creates risks of miscalculation and escalation."

Right, so why are we dangerously reliant on a country that does that?

The use of drones in a Taiwan Strait conflict has been in the news a quite a bit over the last few months. Here's a take on underwater drones.

EDIT: Posting some relevant links to http://formosahut.com/bookmarks/.

Seems likely that any conflict will be very much a robot war ... fought over supply chain routes.

Apart from air & sea drones, you've probably seen China's robot dogs. It's not hard to imagine driverless subs delivering platoons of robot dogs to do the bulk of front-line fighting.

The other thing about robots is that it also expands the grey-zone. If you sink a manned-ship or shoot down a plane then that would cause a 'normal' war, but if you shoot up some drones, it probably won't. It provides more of that 'gradual escalation space' that we talked about before. Like cyber-war, there are no defined rules of engagement.

The excuse often thrown around in Aus for becoming economically dependent on China is 'we can't compete with their cheap labor'. Although that may have been partially true (though you could still apply tariffs & subsidies to balance it up, if you wanted to), it's becoming irrelevant now as the photo below shows.

The modern factories in China do not run on sweat-shop labor - instead they are world leading in terms of robo-assembly.

This is one of those things (like drones, all things AI) that's not a passing fad, it's only going to get bigger. Either get with it in the manufacturing sector, or get left behind.

[image]

This image makes it clear what the strategy is - control the trade route in the East China Sea. In an economic war, control of the seas is more important than control of the land. CCP has managed to invade a large chunk of it without firing a shot - very Sun Tzu.

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Trump suggests Taiwan pay for US protection

Some comments from the article suggest a much greater likelihood of a Chinese invasion if Trump wins:

Trump said the U.S. has been Taiwan’s insurance policy for years and was unsure if it made sense to defend Taiwan when China wants it so badly.

Later in the article, Trump appears lukewarm on protecting Taiwan from Chinese invasion...

Trump said his skepticism stems from the practical difficulty of defending a country halfway around the world and a desire to coax Taiwan to pay protection fees to the United States.

In the article, Trump expressed anger, claiming that Taiwan had stolen the global chip business and profited handsomely, with the U.S. merely serving as an insurance policy against a Chinese invasion. Given these circumstances, he suggested the U.S. should reconsider its Taiwan position.

Link to Bloomberg summary

Link to full article on Bloomberg

The idea that the US can some how withdraw from world politics is just silly. What's the plan there - let totalitarianism take over the rest of the world & pull up the draw-bridge? How's that gonna work with trade & supply chain routes?

I see there's been a huge drop on the Taiwan stock-market - 2nd biggest one day fall ever, apparently. Makes me wonder if somebody knows something. Or maybe it's a reaction to Trump's comments & investor's are getting out before he (potentially) gets in.

We mentioned 'the noise' around an impending (cyber) event earlier - seems clear now what that event is - Iran in direct war against Israel/US (which will involve cyber-warfare). There was the insider trading stock sell-off, Aus announced it's 'terrorist' threat level had been raised to 'probable'...

Which opens up another potentially irresistible window for CCP to invade Taiwan. They'd have their own schedule, so wouldn't be too swayed by opportunistic moments, but the escalation of the Middle East War, may well have been a part of that plan.

We mentioned 'the noise' around an impending (cyber) event earlier - seems clear now what that event is - Iran in direct war against Israel/US (which will involve cyber-warfare). There was the insider trading stock sell-off, Aus announced it's 'terrorist' threat level had been raised to 'probable'...

All signs that something is amiss, or rather that the house of cards is shaking. Here we are, international corporate, financial, political leaders deciding the fate of the world behind the scenes, making sure that when the shit hits the fan, it won't fall on them. But it will hit on the rest of us.

And we have the US election coming up. Russia and China will do everything they can to pit American against American, and most Americans will fall for it, focusing on how much they hate their neighbors rather than trying to figure out who is really screwing them.

Which opens up another potentially irresistible window for CCP to invade Taiwan. They'd have their own schedule, so wouldn't be too swayed by opportunistic moments, but the escalation of the Middle East War, may well have been a part of that plan.

I find it stunning that so many people think China won't make any moves on Taiwan. They already are! The daily air and sea incursions -- do people think that's just for training? And it won't necessarily be a military attack. With AI working social networks and financial coercion alone, I bet China could take over Taiwan within a generation.

But they may not want to wait that long.

A lot of crazy shit has happened in the Palestine War! Doesn't feel like it's gonna wrap up anytime soon - this ain't no Six Day War

The CCP is a piece that logically would be in a play in these proceedings - in a globalized world. You'd be drummed out of the Sun Tzu society if you didn't try to influence events. Drag America into a war that most people would not want to be in. The more public battle-fatigue, the better.

It would also be the Arab world's best hope of success. Otherwise it'd be like previous encounters - get smashed/lose ground to the highest tech fighting force in the world - backed by the US.

But if China & Russia are in the picture ... pulling the strings ... which they likely are ... that does alter the dynamic. Apart from hardware supply, it's great space for the secret war (cyber) to play out/develop.

Detonating the pagers was a mega-ante-upping move. With supply chains all over the shop, many of them controlled by China, that's a Pandora's Box opened. If i was CCP, i might not be thinking about setting off a near-future attack, but i'd be thinking about rigging devices up whilst we've got the world by the supply chain balls.

Here's a somewhat troubling report from NKH regarding how the Israelis are using AI in war.

One red line in AI warfare I've come across is that we're in trouble when there is not a human making the final decision on when to kill another human. This report quite explicitly states that that red line has already been crossed. A human is still pushing the button (or not pushing the ABORT button I imagine), but according to one of the people interviewed, those using the AI have no time to analyze the data the AI has digested to determine if the action they (actually the AI) are taking is appropriate, so they just follow the AI findings without question.

So they're doing what the AI tells them to do. So the AI is making the decisions on when someone should die, and all the people within a certain radius.

One red line in AI warfare I've come across is that we're in trouble when there is not a human making the final decision on when to kill another human.

You can see where all this is heading - humans, with their mortality, are getting swamped by AI ORGs, which don't die. We are literally living in the last days of humanity's reign on earth as the supreme being.

I think the thing that's lost on a lot of people ushering in this baton-change is that AI could/almost certainly will turn on it's handlers at some point - & there won't be a thing they can do about it.

You can see where all this is heading - humans, with their mortality, are getting swamped by AI ORGs, which don't die. We are literally living in the last days of humanity's reign on earth as the supreme being.

Here's an interesting talk given by Stephen Fry that touches on that. He presents some good observations and questions that, though perhaps not entirely new, do shine a new light on the state of things.

I think the thing that's lost on a lot of people ushering in this baton-change is that AI could/almost certainly will turn on it's handlers at some point - & there won't be a thing they can do about it.

I think we've already crossed that point not because AI has us over a barrel and the situation is hopeless, but rather because we're in an AI arms race, both figuratively and literally. The human condition is such that we can't even, as a species, agree on how to address problems that WILL eventually destroy us, i.e. climate change, nuclear weapons, dependence on consumerism, dependence on production, the failing international monetary system, etc. It's the combination of AI and greed that will do us in. If the greed and power structure weren't there, AI would be a great thing.

Imagine, for a moment, if somehow as a species we managed to evolve so that as individuals we spent our day concerned more with others' well being than our own. Imagine if we found comfort in knowing those around us were OK, and in fact that was our main source of comfort, even happiness.

I think that's possible, and I think that's the only thing that will save us from this, that type of evolution. It's not something that can be legislated; in fact, if we were to reach that level of development, we wouldn't need any governments, or nations. Governments and nations serve to protect and preserve the wealth of the wealthy and powerful, and that's it. It's always been that way. There's no other reason for them in spite of what we're told. If all the governments ceased to exist tomorrow, along with all the weapons, we might just realize how much we're all alike.

Governments started with what? Kings and Queens! Right? Rulers who wanted to control their subjects. Nothing has changed.

But if we are able to reach that level of development where we live first for others and maintain our own health so that we can serve others, this could truly be a wonderful little planet, heaven on earth. It's possible.

In the meantime, back to reality. AI is going to present problems because it's being used by a species that is technologically advanced but is still focused on self, and that's a tough one.

Here's an observation. I don't write code (well, I write damn good html and css, but purists wouldn't consider that code), but I can read and understand some of it.

AI can now write code really well, and that ability, or function rather (the word 'ability' in this case is anthropomorphic), raises real questions I don't think are being discussed widely. I know it can write perfect HTML and CSS, and as far as I can tell pretty darn good javascript, php, and python. And this all happened very quickly and it's developing very quickly. And it will have many effects.

AI will be writing algorithms that make second-by-second decisions (another anthropomorphism) about how we're treated as individuals in all aspects of our life. We've seen how it's taking over warfare.

But my thought is this -- won't it just write it's own coding language? Isn't that perhaps already happened? Maybe it has. I've never looked into it.

But once AI starts creating it's own code, literally, from the ground floor up, from a new language, surely multiple coding languages, that it creates and no human knows. Wow, then we're truly fucked.

But once AI starts creating it's own code, literally, from the ground floor up, from a new language, surely multiple coding languages, that it creates and no human knows. Wow, then we're truly fucked.

Great post, seminal even. It's also potential evidence that we're trapped inside a computer game simulation - we're finally coming home to daddy.

On a different, but related topic, we had another debate, another no mention of the C-word's origin - the most impactful event since WW2.

Interestingly, there also didn't seem to be a question on the China, Taiwan, Philippines flashpoint. Maybe i missed it (didn't catch the whole debate). Did anyone even say the word Taiwan?

Also no questions/discussion on the very fast rise of AI that you've articulated so well - which everyone actually knows about - has concerns - it's a massive thing in human history - but now's not the right time to talk about it?

I would like to know what the candidates' positions are on these topics.

Absolute empty debate. Nothing was actually debated.

Not only did they not discuss Taiwan, AI, or Covid, they didn't talk about the house of cards that is the world economy or even the US economy. All we got is nonsense about helping the middle class, presumably by printing more money, which will cause more inflation (the Dems), or lowering interest rates dramatically (the Reps), both of which will just make the problem worse.

And the reason they didn't discuss it is because they know they can't do anything about it because they're NOT IN CONTROL. The ORGMAN is in control. (What did we decide to name the nasty power conglomerate that prefers to remain unnoticed?)

Whoever wins the election, the ORGMAN wins. Trump is right that it's all rigged, but he just wants to be the one who does the rigging in his favor. Harris still wants us to believe that a benevolent government is possible. They're both a couple of con artists and they know it.

If I vote, it will be either Libertarian or a write in for one of my neighbor's dogs. People like to say, "If you vote 3rd party, you're wasting your vote." No, it's not a wasted vote. It's a vote. No vote is wasted. They notice. And Spot might just win.

Not only did they not discuss Taiwan, AI, or Covid, they didn't talk about the house of cards that is the world economy or even the US economy. All we got is nonsense about helping the middle class, presumably by printing more money

Yeah, i forgot about Money Printing. God forbid we take a moment to address these monumental issues. That might mean having to understand the primary causes. Plato had it right with his cave-wall projection - this distraction theatre is not something new - it's as old as power itself.

And the reason they didn't discuss it is because they know they can't do anything about it because they're NOT IN CONTROL. The ORGMAN is in control. (What did we decide to name the nasty power conglomerate that prefers to remain unnoticed?)

I think it was ORG-GODS or GOD-ORGS - it evolved from The Refuser.

If I vote, it will be either Libertarian or a write in for one of my neighbor's dogs. People like to say, "If you vote 3rd party, you're wasting your vote." No, it's not a wasted vote. It's a vote. No vote is wasted. They notice. And Spot might just win.

Go Spot!

ORG-GODS it is!

The ORG-GODS win every election.

This probably belongs in another thread, but relates to your financial catastrophe in the making observations.

Epoch Times: In a historic fiscal milestone for the federal government, the national debt rose to $35 trillion for the first time.

Current debt levels are equal to $105,000 per person and $266,000 per U.S. household.

Over the past 12 months, the national debt has spiked by nearly $2.35 trillion, an average of about $6.4 billion per day.

$6.4 bil a day! That can't be sustainable, surely. The article notes that the national debt has increased by 50 percent since Covid.

The bulk of the debt is in Treasury bonds bought by banks, insurance companies, state and local governments, foreign governments and private investors.

A significant amount of other debt is money loaned by government agencies to itself.

These practices can amount to a form of money printing. It's loaning money on the never-never - meaning that you don't actually have to pay back.

Of foreign countries owning US debt, Japan is number 1, China is 2nd.

Over the past 12 months, the national debt has spiked by nearly $2.35 trillion, an average of about $6.4 billion per day.[/i]

$6.4 bil a day! That can't be sustainable, surely. The article notes that the national debt has increased by 50 percent since Covid.

No, it's not sustainable at all. It will all crash and burn at some point. This is what the politicians do not want us to think about. It will kill us, or cause massive war, poverty, and starvation, long before climate change.

My understanding is that the US can maintain this death spiral for quite a few years because the USD is the reserve currency; most international debt is held in USD, so regardless of how far the US goes into debt, countries must still buy the USD to service their debt, and the US Fed knows this. No other country could get away with this, not even close, but by the Fed (the ORG-GODS rather) continuing to devalue the USD, they're effectively devaluing the entire world economy. Actually, that's not accurate. They are shifting wealth from everyone and everything to the ORG-GODS. That's what the system does, and we're told that a little inflation is good, just a little. That's bullshit.

Inflation is how they take wealth from the poor and give it to the rich. With any positive GDP, there should be DEflation, and deflation helps everybody. It means we can buy more with what we have and work less. An increase in GDP produces a SURPLUS and so prices should come down. But the ORG-GODS don't want that. INflation assures that we are kept in financial slavery.

And when this does all crash and burn, they'll introduce a CBDC or something close. In the US it may be a corporate, banking digital currency. But it's coming. More on that below.

These practices can amount to a form of money printing. It's loaning money on the never-never - meaning that you don't actually have to pay back.

That's right. Those closest to the FED institutionally, meaning the ORG-GODS, are the ones who benefit from this. They're the ones who cash in on money printing. Hey, that's pun!

Of foreign countries owning US debt, Japan is number 1, China is 2nd.

So the US is pumping USD into these countries via interest on the debt by printing money. It's a vicious cycle. The superpowers can't afford to kill the hegemony of the USD because they're holding it and getting paid to do so, but at the same time the USD is dying.

Regarding CBDC, Thailand is apparently releasing one. I've been listening to this guy on the topic. Apparently Thailand is trying to institute some, well, unfortunate financial policies. Here's a recent comment on a tax proposal. In short, what's happening in Thailand seems to be a manifestation of something going on internationally.

No, it's not sustainable at all. It will all crash and burn at some point. This is what the politicians do not want us to think about. It will kill us, or cause massive war, poverty, and starvation, long before climate change.

Imagine if you could get the popular-culture climate-change level of enthusiasm for these more existential issues, such as The Rise of the Machine via money control.

My understanding is that the US can maintain this death spiral for quite a few years because the USD is the reserve currency; most international debt is held in USD, so regardless of how far the US goes into debt, countries must still buy the USD to service their debt, and the US Fed knows this.

That's the definition of a rigged system, at massive scale. Evidence that it's all a contrived game.

Inflation is how they take wealth from the poor and give it to the rich. With any positive GDP, there should be DEflation, and deflation helps everybody. It means we can buy more with what we have and work less. An increase in GDP produces a SURPLUS and so prices should come down. But the ORG-GODS don't want that. INflation assures that we are kept in financial slavery.

Interesting take. These are the levers that are pulled to run the show.

And when this does all crash and burn, they'll introduce a CBDC or something close. In the US it may be a corporate, banking digital currency. But it's coming.

For sure, there'll be some concurrent pitch to keep us safe.
There's a thing going on in Aus now about an internet license, including AI age-verification - all to keep us safe. It's different but related. CBDCs are an integral part of this coming Everything App where all your financial/bio/personal data is recorded. It's already come in China, it's coming everywhere else fast.

Regarding CBDC, Thailand is apparently releasing one. I've been listening to this guy on the topic. Apparently Thailand is trying to institute some, well, unfortunate financial policies. Here's a recent comment on a tax proposal. In short, what's happening in Thailand seems to be a manifestation of something going on internationally.

As the guy says, there's nothing mysterious about what's going down, it's there in plain sight - just a matter of enough people noticing it & reacting (in a determined way) - but that seems to be the hard part.

China’s military has started a new round of war games with ships and aircraft near Taiwan, just days after the self-ruled democratic island marked its National Day.

Captain Li Xi, the spokesman for the Chinese military’s Eastern Theatre Command, said the drills were focussed on “sea-air combat-readiness patrol, blockade on key ports and areas” and would also involve an “assault on maritime and ground targets”.

Somewhere along the war-game continuum of normalization, you'd think there will be drill that turns out to not be a drill. This is probably not it, but it might well be how it happens - CCP gets its pieces into place in the guise of an exercise, then ... leaves them there.

CCP is known for its long-game, but they wouldn't be oblivious to a window of opportunity all the same. It would appear that that window currently exists - Ukraine war, expanding war in the middle-east, Chinese control of manufacturing & crucial supply chains - the last being a window that the US is desperately trying to close, but it is still currently wide open, which makes all the more reason to act now.

Not sure how the US election fits into the timing, or what influence a dramatic escalation could have on the result. Normally it would favour the incumbent, but there isn't a real incumbent - & neither candidate has made statements that would fill Taiwanese with confidence. At least Biden said plainly that he would defend Taiwan, even if efforts were made to try to walk it back as the musings of a 'well-meaning elderly gentleman'.

I've wondered about these same things. There are so many variables most of which are dynamic. The US is not in a particularly strong (relatively, historically speaking) place right now. Much of the world is trying to crawl out from under the dominance of the USD. As you point out, the US and the west in general are trying to become less dependent on Chinese supply lines, but that will take a while. Socially and politically the US is nothing less than dysfunctional.

Then there's the question of when does a blockade become a blockade. How many forms can it take? I think at some point we're going to see China boarding more container ships and other carriers under the guise of protecting Taiwan from 'terrorists'. That's sort of a blockade light.

So basically just an extension of their current intimidation. Notice how they've been getting more aggressive towards the Philippines in the S. China Sea without the world really caring.

China could probably make a legal case for boarding ships anywhere in the territory it claims, particularly if there's some sort of preceding false flag event.

One thing is clear. Their trajectory over the last couple of decades and particularly in the last few years has been one of increasing intimidation and aggressiveness. That will continue, and as it's increasing, well, that increase will manifest in actions and policies that right now are not happening, but will happen.

Here's something of a twist. It appears that these games were essentially unannounced. It's kind of hard to tell how much of a warning was given if any.

From Reuters:

"Any drills without prior warning will cause great disturbance to peace and stability in the entire region," he told reporters in Taipei.

"China's drills not only affect Taiwan's neighbourhood, but also seriously affect the entire international navigational rights and air and sea space, so attracted the attention of other countries."

From Taiwan News On October 14, the day of the games:

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The People's Liberation Army (PLA) announced the “Joint Sword-2024B” military exercises around Taiwan on Monday (Oct. 14).

The PLA's Eastern Theater Command said the drills involve land, sea, air, and rocket forces in the Taiwan Strait and areas north, south, and east of Taiwan. The PLA did not say when the drills would end.

The use of the present tense suggests that the announcement came as or just before the games commenced.

So, basically, they said we're getting into attack position, but we're telling you it's just practice, so don't do anything.

My impression is that most large scale military games are announced well in advance so as to avoid miscalculations and mistakes, i.e., confrontation. This approach almost begs confrontation, like if Taiwan had taken defensive action, it would have given China the green light to attack. At the very least, it establishes a precedent of Chinese forces coming within attack position of Taiwan with little or no warning for the purposes of games. Imagine if China did that to Okinawa? Or Guam? The reaction would be very different.

China drills could turn into full-out attack: officials

The Taiwan official said their own intelligence had detected signs of China’s drills ahead of time and deployed assets, including mobile missile launchers, to strategic spots before Beijing announced the war games about dawn on Monday.

Asked when China could hold its next war games, Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo (顧立雄) said it could be at any time and under any pretext.

“The permanent state of readiness is getting higher and higher — they can switch from nothing to drills to war in no time,” the diplomat said, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

This raises a lot of questions, such as:

Is this latest incident being purposely downplayed or under reported in order to not alarm the public? Granted, normally the press tries to alarm the public so as to get more clicks and eyeballs. But this seems like a pretty serious situation that suggest an imminence of sorts.
It's been established that China could switch from games to an actual attack at any time. Does this mean that such games are increasingly becoming indistinguishable from an actual attack? Are the lines being blurred?
Could a game become an attack and visa versa?

Time to stock up on electronics (& everything else made in Taiwan or China)? Using the guise of a military exercise does seem like a logical way for the war to start (whether it's this time or at some point in the future) & fits with CCP's general strategy of incremental accumulation.

You'd imagine the next step would be to manufacture an 'incident' - something that justifies a further escalation - & so on. This may be a war that begins before anybody really knows it's happening. I suspect they'll delay the 'shooting' part as long as possible - as you've mentioned before, an enormous amount of havoc can be wreaked purely through a blockade, & it gives other countries an excuse to look the other way if no-one is being killed.

(Taiwan News) — The South African government has demanded that Taiwan relocate its representative office outside of the capital, Pretoria, by the end of October.

It made the request on Oct. 7, Taiwan’s National Day reception, threatening to close the office if its demand was not met. South Africa said there is no room for negotiation on this issue.

The South African government has been pushing Taiwan to move its office since last year, citing UN Resolution 2758 and the "one China” principle.

Ok, so the SA-Gov.ORG is reading the economic rationalist/algorithmic tea-leaves - as legitimized by UN ORG - which is dictated to by CCP ORG-GODS.

It's likely just another one of those incremental things - start pressuring indebted Govs to ban Taiwan's de-facto embassies, world-wide ...
Or: a sign something big is about to go down ...

Forget about getting any imports from Taiwan - all that's gonna end with the blockade. Now's the time to get your supply chain ducks in a row - if you know what's good for you.

As a business decision, it's a Winnie-Winnie situation.

It made the request on Oct. 7, Taiwan’s National Day reception, threatening to close the office if its demand was not met. South Africa said there is no room for negotiation on this issue.

The South African government has been pushing Taiwan to move its office since last year, citing UN Resolution 2758 and the "one China” principle.[/i]

That's interesting. South Africa hung on to recognizing Taiwan well after most countries had stopped. I think it was the late 90's when they caved to China. This must be China using it to make a point.

It's likely just another one of those incremental things - start pressuring indebted Govs to ban Taiwan's de-facto embassies, world-wide

Yes, and this has got me thinking again about these recent, unannounced games. As I pointed out in a previous post, imagine if China had pulled this on Okinawa or Guam. It would have been seen as little short of an act of war and would have had extremely serious consequences.

So why no consequences when they do it to Taiwan?

So, the world allows China to treat Taiwan in an exceptional way. Why? Because it's a tacit recognition by the world community that Taiwan is part of China.

That's hard to say, but that's exactly what it is. That's the message the world is sending to China. You can do this only because it's Taiwan.

So the world can say all it wants about maintaining the status quo, but clearly the status quo is not being maintained and the world is doing nothing. It's like that scene out of All the President's Men where the reporter asks the source to hang up before the count of ten if the story isn't true. (Start at 1:40).

China is the reporter asking if Taiwan is part of China.

This is a bad sign for Taiwan. Pompeo, who is a staunch Taiwan supporter, has been ruled out of contention for a return to Trump's cabinet. When i heard Pompeo speak on Taiwan-China relations, it always felt like i could have been his speech writer, but his voice will not be heard in the new administration.

His appointment would have allayed a lot of fears about Trump 'making a deal' over Taiwan - his non-appointment raises fears.

There was no congratulatory phone call from the President of Taiwan this time, either. For sure Lai Ching-de would have tried.

China's so-called 'invasion date' of 2027 falls in Trump's term, so it will be interesting to see what signals are sent.

You'd think Taiwan is safe now until at least January 2025. No way Xi is gonna start anything before the handover of power.

Things are not looking good on so many fronts. I wonder when the DPP will wake up and realize that Trump doesn't give a shit about Taiwan.

EDIT: And Musk is on record for supporting reunification.

SpaceX asks Taiwanese firms to move

Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX) asked Taiwanese suppliers to transfer manufacturing out of Taiwan, leading to some relocating portions of their supply chain, according to sources employed by and close to the equipment makers and corporate documents.

A source at a company that is one of the numerous subcontractors that provide components for SpaceX’s Starlink satellite Internet products said that SpaceX asked their manufacturers to produce outside of Taiwan because of geopolitical risks, pushing at least one to move production to Vietnam.

A second source who collaborates with Taiwanese satellite component makers in the nation said that suppliers were directly asked by SpaceX to transfer manufacturing abroad.

SpaceX’s requests place a renewed focus on the contentious relationship Musk has had with Taiwan, especially after he said last year it is an “integral part” of China, drawing sharp criticism from Taipei.

So, he has repeatedly said that Taiwan is part of China, has called for reunification, has not gained a spot on the cabinet of the president elect, and he's asking his suppliers in Taiwan to get out of the country for geopolitical reasons.

I'm not sure how much clearer this picture could be.

So, he has repeatedly said that Taiwan is part of China, has called for reunification, has (now) gained a spot on the cabinet of the president elect, and he's asking his suppliers in Taiwan to get out of the country for geopolitical reasons.

I'm not sure how much clearer this picture could be.

Yep, the signs are plain. Taiwan is toast so far as the incoming US administration is concerned.

What do you think they are planning to gain out of the deal? They will sell the abandonment of Taiwan's democracy to totalitarianism with some crap about America getting out of the forever war business, but Trump/Musk would know that Taiwan is a hugely valuable bargaining chip that you could get a lot for by not defending it.

Money/power, one would assume. Musk has his cars made in China, so he'd be looking for long-term stability, market access, but what is Trump's motivation?

He's all talk about tariffs on China products (presumably not including Tesla), but that's purely business related, nothing to do with any moral stance on Taiwan. Is it the chip industry he's after? How would handing China control of Taiwan help that? America would like to develop its own, be self-sufficient, but that's a ways off, right? (Read a figure saying it's currently around 12% of integrated circuit manufacturing. Don't know how accurate that is.)

Trump would be thinking reward in his term. There must be some interim pay-off involved.

On another point, it's always eyebrow-raising when you hear about Vietnam being touted as the new manufacturing hub. Vietnam is another country run by a ruthless totalitarian regime. It's hard to escape the conclusion that if you're a Globo-player from the west, you like doing business with totalitarian regimes - there are less moving parts. The fact that it's idiotic to keep handing over your supply chain to totalitarian orgs, never seems to get addressed. I guess the thing is that it makes financial/power sense to the Musk-types, but it's a disaster for the poor old normal person.

What do you think they are planning to gain out of the deal? They will sell the abandonment of Taiwan's democracy to totalitarianism with some crap about America getting out of the forever war business, but Trump/Musk would know that Taiwan is a hugely valuable bargaining chip that you could get a lot for by not defending it.

Money/power, one would assume. Musk has his cars made in China, so he'd be looking for long-term stability, market access, but what is Trump's motivation?

That's a tough call, unless Trump would also be scoring points with Russia in the deal. There's long been speculation that Putin has some deep dark secret he's holding over Trump. It could also be Trump setting up his family. it's clear what Musk gets out of it, agreed.

But why would they trust China? Didn't they learn anything from Hong Kong? China will keep its word until they have control, then any deal is history.

He's all talk about tariffs on China products (presumably not including Tesla), but that's purely business related, nothing to do with any moral stance on Taiwan. Is it the chip industry he's after? How would handing China control of Taiwan help that? America would like to develop its own, be self-sufficient, but that's a ways off, right?

It's years off, but not decades. My guess is that they could change the supply landscape relatively quickly. The US has already started building up chip production.

Trump would be thinking reward in his term. There must be some interim pay-off involved.

It could also be that there's an unspoken, seemingly unrelated side deal, possibly of much bigger consequence, going on. In fact I would guess there must be, something in addition to personal gain for Trump and Musk. It could have something to with, for example, a new currency (CBDC type) or something otherwise very big, and getting the Taiwan issue out of the way helps make this other thing happen, whatever it is. That's kind of a scary thought.

On another point, it's always eyebrow-raising when you hear about Vietnam being touted as the new manufacturing hub. Vietnam is another country run by a ruthless totalitarian regime. It's hard to escape the conclusion that if you're a Globo-player from the west, you like doing business with totalitarian regimes - there are less moving parts. The fact that it's idiotic to keep handing over your supply chain to totalitarian orgs, never seems to get addressed. I guess the thing is that it makes financial/power sense to the Musk-types, but it's a disaster for the poor old normal person.

Good point, and this ties into my previous comment about new alignments happening. There may be some big changes planned that we have not learned of yet.

There are some wild cards at play here, and probably some unknowns, such as the possibility that there may be somehing much larger at play here.

One wild card I've considered is to what extent is the Taiwan military really committed to defending Taiwan. Historically, the Taiwan military has been anti-independence, and no doubt some, maybe a significant number, of high level military officials in Taiwan are still vehemently anti-independence and maybe even increasingly pro-China. (Well, they've always been pro-China, and we're talking here about the legacy of the KMT, just not pro CCP. As the KMT loses influence in Taiwan, this segment of the military, and wider populace, may be softening on the CCP.)

The wild card here is how this element of the Taiwan military will act, or are acting, with regards to defending Taiwan, because if a shooting war breaks out, then it would be the end of the status quo. It would be the beginning of an independent Taiwan. Do the pro-China military members, most of whom are in the higher ranks, want that? Would they do something to thwart it?

And this begs the question of, are such efforts current in segments of the Taiwan military? Could there be a coup? There are many ways that could happen, possibly even keeping the Taiwan players hidden. Or it could be explicit. Regardless, that could be in the works. That's the wild card.

And if such an event came to pass, it would result in massive internal civil conflict, a civil war.

There are 1001 scenarios that could lead up to this. Whatever is is, it would likely be a false flag op of some sort.

But there is a logic to why it might happen. China and the US avoid confrontation. The KMT gets power back, albeit maybe under another name. Trump and Musk get whatever they're negotiating for. And, if there's indeed something bigger in the works, this gets the Taiwan 'problem' out of the way in a reasonably agreeable manner for everyone except the Taiwanese.

A point in the previous post I forgot to mention --

If something like this were to happen, resulting in civil war, that would be why Musk wants production moved off island. Not because he's afraid of Chinese disrupting production, but Taiwanese.

One more followup. Of course, the KMT soldiers that came over in 49 are dying off and no longer serving. I'm referring to their children, almost exclusively sons, who would be in positions of power now in the military as well as industry.

Go two generations down and all bets are off. But that first generation born in Taiwan most likely grew up in a very pro-China household, and the pro-China values of the KMT certainly were inherited by the military and preserved well into the 21st century, even to this day.

That's plausible. A short sharp invasion abetted by key KMT re-unificationists in the Taiwanese military.

Possession is 10/10ths of the law in a war. Very hard/impossible to dislodge CCP if they get entrenched in Taiwan.

There'll then be some tepid statement condemning the invasion & expressing the wish that both sides can settle their differences peacefully.

Then it's done. For all time. Just like HK. Only thing left to do is round-up/persecute those who opposed totalitarianism, & change the school curriculum.

I think you're onto something with the off-screen big-thing (e.g. cbdc). There has gotta be some huge payoff in this somewhere for Trump/his handlers.

Or maybe the Russians do have something on him. There'll definitely be a reason.

To be fair, it's only speculation at this point, though the signs that Taiwan is being sold off are not good.

As you pointed out, it's hard to know where the military is at exactly - well known KMT stronghold, but with a decade of whittling that down by DPP. You'd think the soldiers would be fine, it's all about the generals.

Looks like Marco Rubio is gonna be Secretary of State. Which is minister responsible for Taiwan.

At first glance his cred looks good. He's actually been banned by CCP from visiting China coz of his hurtful remarks about totalitarianism. I wonder if the ban will be lifted - or will all meetings need to occur off-shore?

Rubio: Communist China is not, and will never be, a friend to democratic nations. The international community must continue to stand with Taiwan as they defend their sovereignty and freedom.

They (CCP) have leverage over our economy. They have influence over our society. They have an army of unpaid lobbyists here in Washington.

According to the article: He lamented that big businesses' greed contributed to China's rapid rise, which the CCP capitalized on by stealing trade secrets and exporting authoritarianism globally.

He has been outspoken on Hong Kong (which caused his ban), as well as Xin-Jiang.

Which is all perfectly fine, if he still holds to that - not a whichever-way-the-wind-blows customer. Or a roll-over.

Trump has said he will put hawk-guys into super-power meetings as a bluff tactic to scare people - to set an outer-limit. Then make the deal somewhere in between - it's all part of the art. The question is still open on what he might be angling for in that deal, & where it lands.

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