Normally, i'd be getting excited about this developing low pressure, but it looks a bit close for comfort so far as the concert goes.

It could be worse, and may actually turn out to be perfect if it clears the sky up and cools things down a bit and keeps it's rain to itself. After 7/28 it can do whatever it likes.

Forecast Chart for 7.28:

It does look a bit dicey, but as you point out it might work out just fine. Some breezy weather with clouds would seem to be ideal.

I drank some rice wine and prayed to the Amis sea and mountain gods at a ceremony on the beach today - so we'll see if that helps. I see there is also a low due east of Taiwan, so there's plenty around. Also got my eye on something that's behind the next low in the line-up and it's actually closer to Australia than it is to Taiwan at the moment - i think that might be our big one. Plenty of time to develop.

This is the just released chart for 7/28. Should be ok - might be some rain, but doesn't look like it's going to be a direct hit from a full-blown typhoon, at this stage. The CWB tends not to predict typhoon development in their forecast charts, just shows the position of the low, so it may well end up being a typhoon - actually development might not be a bad thing if it starts to wind the weather in a bit tighter around itself - hopefully it will still be too far away to seriously impact us by sat.

The main concern is whether there will be any exchange between this low and the other two lows to the west of TW.

I can't see how it can get much busier than what I see below. It looks like storms jostling for a free lunch. But this still may ultimately play out well. Assuming we don't take a direct hit, the weather will be great.

I can't see how it can get much busier than what I see below. It looks like storms jostling for a free lunch. But this still may ultimately play out well. Assuming we don't take a direct hit, the weather will be great.

I like that optimism! Here's the latest forecast chart for Sat - seems we are being triangulated by lows - hopefully there's a sweet spot in the middle.

My prediction: cloud cover in the afternoon to bring cooler, comfortable conditions, then cloud clearing at night to let moonlight shine thru, though with an ominous bank of storm clouds far out to see on the horizon that flickers with lightning.

Two days later the low pressure consolidates into a cat 5 storm which wipes out the hotel.

Whatever, i am glad it's not on tonight - i wouldn't want to be looking at a radar image like this on Saturday!

Looks like we are in for a serious lashing in a couple of hours. I thought those clouds out to sea looked particularly menacing today.

I think your idyllic prediction actually has the possibility of coming true. I don't see any way that system building east of the Philippines can make it here by Saturday, though we may get some very early cloud action out of it by then.

That system does, however, have the potential to kick our butts if it does develop and head this way, as it looks like it might.

All the forecasts I've seen for that low have it running north up our east coast. Could be interesting. Of course nothing will happen until after Saturday, at which point all hell will break loose.

Predictions for post Saturday. Hello.

That was worrying this morning when i woke up to the sound of heavy rain - and we had a serious thunder storm down on the site this morning while we doing preparations - that wasn't part of my predictions!

However, looking at the sat i think that storm is just starting to tighten up and wind the weather in a bit closer around the core - hopefully that's gonna keep most of the rain away.

I doubt that the Gods have time to control the weather but there were lots of people offering up silent prayers when that rain was tumbling down and the lightning was striking right on the beach all morning.
And then, in the end, the rain cleared, the sun broke through and you could feel the elation start to rise amongst the workers preparing for the concert. For me, it was actually the most emotional and memorable part of the whole day - and the music hadn't even started. (insert the reverse of this emotional rollercoaster for the hotel management people watching from the balconies of their abomination)

By evening, it was the complete dream scenario. Clear skies, shooting stars galore (typ cleared the air making visibility great), the moon, cool temperature, and the lightning flickering in the clouds on the horizon.

Next year i think it would be wise to do it a bit earlier in July when the weather is more stable.