Extreme Events 2023 - Formosahut forum

9 News: California saw little relief from drenching rains overnight as the latest in a relentless string of storms swamped roads, turned rivers into gushing flood zones and forced thousands of people to flee from towns with histories of deadly mudslides.

The storm .. brought heavy snow to the Sierra Nevada a day after dumping up to 36cm of rain at higher elevations in central and Southern California.

360 mil is not biblical but it's a decent amount of rain for a place that's not used to large falls. Seems kinda odd to be happening in the middle of winter.

Forecast image for May 30. Tracks look like it's heading toward Taiwan but according to the (forecast) chart i think it will re-curve north-east towards the cold-fronts/Japan. There's no high pressure ridge there to keep it flat. Should be perfect for the surfers, though ...

It's a week out so things can change, of course.

I do think Taiwan will cop a big one this year, but maybe not this one. Would be ridiculously early if it did.

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Yeah, Mawar is shaping up to be the worst typhoon to hit Guam in 20 years. Guam is such a tiny island, but check this out:

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Hell, that looks like a lock for Guam. 140kts! Hard to evacuate to safer ground on an island that size. That's gonna be a scary ride.

God I hope this thing doesn't come our way. We're supposed to be flying out the 9th, to Guam. The last time we were supposed to fly from Japan to Guam, we were fucked by Hagibis. We had to cancel and we were flying to Guam for exactly the same reason as now which I don't want to state because at this point I do absolutely belief in jinxes and fate.

Fuck. Please, please go anywhere but north.

I think it might go towards Japan - but you should be right by the 9th. Would have to do a major stall to drag out that long. Also the waters up north might be too cold to sustain it, being so early in the season.

More of a concern is will Guam still exist by then?

Interestingly, CWB's week-from-today map shows a steering-ridge high building quickly into the north, which brings northern Taiwan back into play. It's whether it follows that cold-front up before the high builds in or not.

Guam satellite link - it's all happening there as we type: https://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamircolor.html

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It could still totally mess up our trip. I remember thinking that Hagibis was way too far away to mess with us, but it did. It doesn't have to come anywhere near us to cancel flights.

More of a concern is will Guam still exist by then?

True. I just started thinking about the condition our hotel might be in and if we'll have a car to rent. As of today, the entire island is without water, and we're traveling in two weeks. The airport is supposed to open in three days.

From https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp0223prog.txt

DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING PATTERN AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN TRACK SPEEDS AND POSSIBLE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION LIKELY EAST OF TAIWAN. THIS SCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN THE WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE 260000Z GFS ENSEMBLE INDICATES GREATER UNCERTAINTY AFTER DAY 5 WITH A BIFURCATION IN PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE; HALF THE SOLUTIONS TRACK THE SYSTEM OVER TAIWAN AND INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA WHILE THE OTHER HALF RECURVE THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST, THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC MOTION WILL HAVE TO BEMONITORED CLOSELY.

The bolded bit would be particularly bad for flights out of Japan in the coming 10-14 days.

I think you'll be fine - in fact it could stay east of Japan altogether. Besides, the water will be too cold for it to hold its strength.

Mind you, there's something vaguely forming behind it - so your jinx might still be alive...

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Nope. We're screwed. We're absolutely, completely, and entirely fucked. Unbelievable. If everything goes smoothly, Dulan Drift, I will buy you beers every time we happen to be in the same bar at the same time for life. Granted, that's a pretty safe bet, but still...

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MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 110NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
DURING THIS TIME. AT THE APPROACH TO TAU 72 AND BEYOND, THE
COMPETING STEERING PATTERN INCREASES THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK WITH A MARKED DECREASE IN TRACK
SPEEDS AND POSSIBLE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION EAST OF TAIWAN.
COAMPS-TC (NVGM VERSION), HWRF AND AFUM THROW CAUTION TO THE WIND
AND PLOW STRAIGHT INTO THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY INTO
TAIWAN. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE HOWEVER, STAYS CLOSE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWING TAU 72. AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING OF THE TURN, THE POTENTIAL FOR
ERRATIC TRACK MOTION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE LATER TAUS, LENDING
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
OUT TO TAU 72, BECOMING MEDIUM THEREAFTER.

Like I said, we're fucked. Airlines are going to be dealing with 4,000+ stranded tourists on Guam WHEN the airport opens.

The bet is on. No wager on your part. Beers on me if all goes smoothly.

If everything goes smoothly, Dulan Drift, I will buy you beers every time we happen to be in the same bar at the same time for life. Granted, that's a pretty safe bet, but still...

I'm up for that! No way it can survive that cold northern water.

Any good bars in Guam?

I'm up for that! No way it can survive that cold northern water.

Any good bars in Guam?

There used to be! Much of the island is still without power and, much worse, water after five days. Five days with no water? And they only have four water trucks for the whole island. What a drag. 6,000 tourists stranded until at least Tuesday when the Airport SHOULD open. We fly in in 13 days, at least I hope we can. The hotels sustained a lot of damage. I'm going to wait until Tue or Wed to call ours to see if we still have a room.

This one looks alright - Jimmy Dee's Beach Bar. Would have taken a hit during Mawar, but looks simple enough so hopefully they could set up shop again pretty quick.

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Yep, been there many times. That deck is new (well, built in the last 25 years). I saw a post-typhoon picture of this somewhere. Everything you see there is gone, but the building was fine. I think the frame for the awning was still there. I don't remember seeing a deck...

Is the jinx back on? According to windy, a new typhoon is forming around your arrival date. What looked like something stirring in the pipeline, is predicted to stir. The below graphic is for Jun 10, 7am. Not sure where Guam is exactly in relation to this system, but close-ish ... ?

Does this affect my free-beers-for-life deal?

Edit: i see Guam is well east of this, so you/my beers should be ok ...

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Fuck fuck fuck fuck double fuck. That forecast looks like it places it just south of Guam, and we know how forecasts go. I'm telling you. It's a force of nature that I can no longer deny or ignore. Maybe it's proof of a simulation, or call it bad luck, call it God, call it whatever you like, but coincidence doesn't cut it. It's a very shitty explanation.

Here's a current screenshot of the storm with Guam marked.

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Does this affect my free-beers-for-life deal?

No, it doesn't because I've already accepted that we're fucked. This second storm just proves it. I embrace it. It's OK. It will not go smoothly, there will be a storm, and it will be a total mess.

EDIT: I'm telling you and anyone who will listen. This effort of ours is jinxed. You can predict the weather by it. If we were to change our flights, it would alter the weather, that's how powerful this jinx is. Do I believe that? Of course not. But that doesn't alter the fact that it's true.

From JTWC:

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5N
142.1E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC AS
EVIDENCED BY A 020032Z ASCAT METOP-C BULLSEYE PASS. CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALSO EVIDENT IN RECENT TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. THUS FAR, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN MINIMAL. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE (5-10 KNOT) VWS, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMELINE AND LOCATION OF FORMATION.
HOWEVER, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WILL
PASS TO THE WEST OF GUAM, BUT THE EASTERN INFLOW REGION WITH
ASSOCIATED HIGHER WINDS AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD AFFECT GUAM
AND THE CNMI IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. :-(

Perhaps I should send them our itinerary.

So, i'm assuming you made it to Guam?

I've got my private jet on stand-by - now i just need to get you fitted with a GPS tracking device to know when you're in a bar.

How's the typhoon devastation looking?

Not yet. Our flight got pushed back so we're getting in late tonight. Should be fun navigating to our hotel at midnight with no traffic or street lights! I've been communicating with a realtor who said her home still doesn't have power or water, and I believe next Tue or Wed will mark three weeks.

I've been communicating with a realtor who said her home still doesn't have power or water, and I believe next Tue or Wed will mark three weeks.

Guess the cat's out of the bag now. At least you'll have a great indication of how typhoon-proof places are.

I'm not surprised there was a lot of damage in Guam - you don't cop a Cat 4-5 without getting smashed - but kinda surprised they haven't got power back on yet. With the military presence i'd have thought it would be fixed faster than that.

Don't know if this is 'the big one' that i think is going to hit Taiwan this year - could be - heading vaguely in that direction. Nepartak (7 years ago) was a July typhoon, straight out of the box after a dearth of typhoons for two years ...

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It certainly looks like it could be, and that it's going to hit Taiwan one way or another.

The multi-track is looking like a CCP invasion plan of Taiwan's east coast

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This is eerily similar to Nepartak in July 2016 - not saying it will be the same - almost certainly won't - but it was forecast to head north then only in the last 24hrs did it lock-in on Taidong - same time it dramatically ramped up speed. The net result was we had about 10 hours of daylight to prepare for a Cat-5.

As is, it's due to hit Wednesday night. Why do typhoons almost always strike at night?

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Peak gusts up to 150 kts! Seems to be tracking south of Taiwan, though. It'll still be bloody windy on the Taidong/Pingdong coasts. Tomorrow morning will tell the track story - some chance to slide back up - depends on the strength of the High pressure ridge over Japan.

When the ridge does settle in there, that's when Taiwan can get a bad typhoon season.

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It is indeed a major typhoon. It's forecast to move quickly which may spare Taiwan, but the coast of China is going to take a major hit.

That's some serious form now - strong eye. Someone is gonna cop it.

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This nifty Windy-style graphic on CWB (CWB is way better than the Aussie equivalent) has the eye going over southern Taiwan. That's not forecast on most of the tracks i've seen. If that happens, then southern Taiwan, including Taidong city/Dulan is in for a pounding.

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https://wifi.cwb.gov.tw/cwbwifiv2/

Well that's interesting. It looks like southern Taiwan is going to get something substantial regardless of whether it takes a direct hit. The fact that this is forecast to turn poleward means that even a slight shift north earlier in the track could be very bad. And if it does clear the south then turn poleward in a sharper manner than forecast, that's the scenario where Kaohsiung/Pingtung get hit very hard.

One thing's for sure. This thing is a monster.

he fact that this is forecast to turn poleward means that even a slight shift north earlier in the track could be very bad.

In fact it appears to have dipped southward overnight - so that lessens the chance of a direct hit. But any substantial typhoon going between Taiwan & PPE always creates a bigger impact on southern Taiwan than what you'd expect, even if it appears quite far away.

Meanwhile, there's another typhoon loading up right behind it.

Next event off the production line. With another loading up behind it. This one's predicted to go north of Taiwan. Looks like it's gonna hit China as a large typhoon - not far south of Shanghai.

So far seems typical of an active 'phoon season - they start flying around left, right, & eventually, centre.

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It looks like it has the potential to move very slowly near or just after it passes Okinawa. Somebody could get a lot of rain.

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Well well well. It appears that Khanan is becoming a bit unpredictable and all bets are off. What a difference a few hours makes.

The JTWC sums it up:

JTWC FORECAST TRACKS HAVE REMAINED WITHIN A TIGHT, 50NM ENVELOPE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OKINAWA OVER THE PAST FOUR DAYS. HOWEVER, ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS HAVE REMAINED INCONSISTENT RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CPA TIMING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY LARGE SPREAD (433NM SPREAD AT TAU 96 AND A 514NM SPREAD AT TAU 120) AND A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

So if I were living in Okinawa or any islands in that area, I'd be getting serious with preparations right now. Even northern Taiwan should take notice. This could stall or do a loop-de-loop, who knows.

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Yeah, really slammed on the anchors. Okinawa is in for it.

Meanwhile Doksuri remnants (supposedly) have caused flooding around Beijing - which is a long way north of where it made landfall. 20 odd dead. Read one report that said people were stranded on a bullet train for 30 hours. That's not the trip you'd expect when you board a high-speed train.

Yeah, really slammed on the anchors. Okinawa is in for it.

Meanwhile Doksuri remnants (supposedly) have caused flooding around Beijing - which is a long way north of where it made landfall. 20 odd dead. Read one report that said people were stranded on a bullet train for 30 hours. That's not the trip you'd expect when you board a high-speed train.

It struck me that in most places when we see pictures of such flooding, they are of people in rafts on small roads in suburbs or villages, not these wide thoroughfares:

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It's forecast to do a Z formation - was heading W to China - now it's predicted to travel NE to east of Japan - then finally heading W through Japan.

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It struck me that in most places when we see pictures of such flooding, they are of people in rafts on small roads in suburbs or villages, not these wide thoroughfares:

Turns out there was a reason - several populated areas were designated as 'flood-storage areas', meaning water was diverted there in order to mitigate flooding in Beijing.

Having seen the flood-response debacle in Australia, i couldn't say China was any worse, but according to the article, most, if not all residents, had no idea they were living in a flood-storage area. They do now.

Below is Aussie floods:

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There's a lot going on here. Lan looks like it could be a monster, but the forecast only has it topping out at 85 kts. The real question is how much rain it will dump on Japan.

Meanwhile, Dora is taking shape. It's way too far from Guam to pose any threat, but I'd keep my eye on it.

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I wouldn't have normally associated Hawaii with bushfires but they're up to 80 dead now which puts it up there with the worst ever bushfires in history.

My understanding is that it was a kind of 'perfect storm' scenario - a very dry year then a distant, passing hurricane that sent winds but no rain over the island.

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Apparently the fire moved at 40 mph through the town. That's nearly 60 feet per second. There's no escaping from that.

Apparently the fire moved at 40 mph through the town. That's nearly 60 feet per second. There's no escaping from that.

That's hell on earth. I used to describe big bushfires in Taiwan as like a typhoon on fire - which it actually was in this case.

Seems power lines downed in strong winds were the cause. Not the first (or last) time that has happened - the Black Saturday fires in Victoria (Aus) were the same, as were the California fires. There's a pretty simple solution, but our enslavement to 'economic rationalism' refuses to allow it: put the power lines underground.

I'm having power poles changed on my land & asked the question as to why they are not put underground? Much less maintenance, no fire hazard, Germany & Holland have done it.

The response was that it's 'too expensive'. But is it really in the long run? How much did the Maui fires cost? Apart from the tragedies, my power has gone out at least 6 or 7 times in the last year alone - each time someone has to fix it - how much is that?

I'd also question the supposed prohibitive expense, especially in rural areas, which is where fires occur. You get a backhoe, dig a trench, put the wires in a strong plastic pipe, then bury it. I doubt it would cost more than a few years' maintenance for above ground lines.

Unfortunately, that's not the model our myopic leaders like. They'd rather have a crappy service & devastating bushfires than spend money up front - even when it saves money in the long run.

At least our politicians will still get to tour destroyed communities for photo ops. Just don't mention there's a straightforward solution ...

This a strange one. Don't often see typhoons track due south from that (or any) latitude. Predicted to get near super-typhoon strength but hard to know where it will wind up. Looks like a loop is on the cards.

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Looks like a loop indeed.

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Given the convoluted path, it's strange how all the models are in such close agreement. There does appear to be a solid High pressure ridge building to the north, so can't see this going north of Taiwan - should either be a direct hit somewhere on the south east coast or it may slip under Taiwan. Predicted to reach super-typhoon strength, so it's a serious storm.

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Yeah, it looks like southern Taiwan could be in for it even if it does shift south from forecasts a couple degrees.

So far, this is a pretty active typhoon season, and it's really just getting started. Well, maybe a couple weeks in, but we're entering the zone.

Yeah, it looks like southern Taiwan could be in for it even if it does shift south from forecasts a couple degrees.

So far, this is a pretty active typhoon season, and it's really just getting started.

Yeah they're whizzing around. Another loading up behind this one. Check out the steering H pressure - it flat as a tack.

Edit: that cold-front would be a potential weakness for a drift north, so south east coast still in play.

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That solid H-ridge has got the models in agreeance - sliding under Taiwan. Still gonna blow past doing up to 160kts. That's serious wind. SE Taiwan will definitely know about it.

It's curious how it dissolves to TS strength just before the coast of China. The ocean at that latitude is warm enough to sustain intensity. If the forecast wasn't from JTWC (US military), i'd be suspecting weather manipulation. We know they're exploring it.

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It's serious alright. HK could end up getting the worst of it.
Next up, Haikui. This is shaping up to be an active season!

Idalia has jumped up to a Cat-3, forecast to reach Cat-4. It's a big-arsed storm that's gonna wreak destruction wherever it lands in the Big Bend Gulf Coast.

Isn't that near your old place?

The National Weather Service: To put this system into historical context, there are NO major hurricanes in the historical dataset going back to 1851 that have tracked into Apalachee Bay. None. Don’t mess around with this one.

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Yeah, that's our old neighborhood. It looks like it will be making landfall a bit north of where we were, but this thing is so big it's going to impact most of the state.

450 mil at the spiritual home of Formosahut! Which is the highest for anywhere in Taiwan today. Shows again that you can be far away from the eye of the typhoon but still cop serious impacts. I've been through direct hits that didn't drop that much.

That's an area that doesn't typically get massive falls, unlike Pingdong or Ilan, so it's vulnerable to landslides.

Do you think it's a bit weird that two of your old haunts in Taiwan & US are getting hit by typhoon/hurricane impacts on the same day?

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Do you think it's a bit weird that two of your old haunts in Taiwan & US are getting hit by typhoon/hurricane impacts on the same day?

LOL! To be honest, I hadn't considered it, but it is quite coincidental. In fact the odds of that happening are probably extremely low.

Also, Idalia ended up dropping most rain south of the eye I think, which makes sense as the southern band of the storm picked up all that moisture as it hit. This resulted in the area where we lived getting hit the hardest, north of Tampa.

BREAKING NEWS: Haikui has made a big change in direction - now forecast to hit northern Taiwan.

It's not massive in wind speed at this stage - but looks big in mass terms - with a lot of moisture to draw on in the tail region.

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This is now on track for mid or even south Taiwan. A day or so ago it was forecast to sail well-north of Taiwan.

That's a dangerous scenario - where you've only got 24 hrs to prepare.

If it maintains course, Hualien/Illan will cop the brunt, but it's trending south so Taidong is also in the picture. If the eye is 80k north of you then that's a lot better than it being the same distance south.

The modellers seem to be missing a bit of a trend this season. The H-steering ridge looks pretty entrenched forcing typhoons south or stright-runners. This is the 3rd one in a row that has gone way south of where it was originally predicted.

Check out that ridge - no way the Haikui is veering north through that.

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Taidong may be in for a double whammy.

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Taidong may be in for a double whammy.

Right. Soil is gonna be saturated from Saola - so it's all run-off. That large tail worries me a bit. All that will feed in across Taidong even after the initial onslaught.

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Last minute drift north towards Cheng Gong. Reports are from Dulan that it's not too bad there so far. Being slightly south of the eye is way better than slightly north. Though i'd still think it's going rock Dulan, it probably won't be as sustained as Cheng Gong or Dong He, Duli.

Biggest rain will be Taidong/Hualien border area right up to northern Ilan.

Check out that tail - looks like a dragon - lot of rain to be dragged through with that.

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For the record:

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Pretty much a direct hit. Gonna be a lot of roads out for a while.

Have chatted to friends there, seen some pics of the damage - seems it was relatively short but plenty sharp.

Lot of damage to Brian & Minshu's Highway-11 bar/shop (again) - pretty much everyone is looking at some kind of damage. A few people got caught out by the electricity going out quite early in the piece - meaning they couldn't close their metal shutters - so a lot of water inside houses.

Power is still out & guess it will be out all night.

But everyone is ok - just sucks having to do that clean-up work - it can take weeks of (unpaid) work to get things back in order.

Top rainfall is 550 mm in Hualien - no surprise the biggest rain is always north of the eye on the east coast & south of it on the west coast. Remains to be seen where the tail rain ends up but probably mid to north Taiwan.

Now that the eye is nearly across the island - pretty much right over Kaohsiung - the southwest coast is copping it. Pingdong always cops it somehow.

Until it hits China coast (at least another 24 hrs) & loses some drawing power, it will continue dragging rain across through its tail, so i'd expect a wet night for many areas.

Part of the tail appears to have broken off and become it's own storm. I don't know if that's good or bad. Good that it won't get dragged across - bad if it forms a new typhoon & bee-lines for Taiwan again. There's nothing worse than 'the old one-two' when you're trying to endure natural disasters - or any traumatic stuff.

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If it does start taking shape and looking like it might follow the same path, I'd be tempted to hold off on repairs and serious cleaning until it passes.

Getting reports that the worst of Haikui was in the eye-wall of the back-half. That's unusual. Most typhoons i've experienced, the front half was much worse. Quite often it's all but over as soon as the eye crosses.

This, i guess, was due to the centre of the eye going in over Dong He, with Dulan in the eye, but 10k south, meaning the wind was coming more from the south east than the north east, as it usually does.

Places exposed to the north-east, that are used to bearing the brunt of typhoons, didn't get hammered as bad this time (though still hammered), whereas places exposed to the south east got hit a lot worse than they normally would.

There's some serious moisture in the east Asia Pacific this year. Today HK received a record downpour causing widespread flooding. Haven't been paying attention so don't know if this is remnants from Haikui or some separate storm.

Meanwhile, the se coast of Taiwan is still getting drenched. 250 mil in Cheng Gong yesterday & it's pouring there again now.

There does seem to be some opposites balancing act going on with predominantly hot dry conditions in Aus. As i remember, during the floods in Aus, it was unusually dry in Taiwan.

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A cluster of five Lows stretching from Guam to Hainan. At least that explains the big-wet.

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Not a place i would normally associate with floods but it's often the case that such places experience the worst impacts coz they're not used to it. Whereas Taiwan has an excellent drainage system able to withstand 500 mil without too much drama, a drier zone that lacks that infrastructure will experience a disaster with the same amount of rain or less. Derma received only 250-300 mm, but that was enough to set off a chain reaction of catastrophic events.

In this case, torrential rain from Storm Daniel caused a dam to burst its banks, which then caused another dam downstream to collapse, which then sent a wall of water through populated areas.

Some estimates are saying the death-toll could reach 20 000!

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New storm building & heading vaguely towards south Taiwan. Following the same pattern as others this season with the steering ridge blocking a northward path & shaping it into another 'straight-runner'.

Wind speed is building - up to 135 kt gusts as it approaches Taiwan - which is similar to the last one.

Not good news for those in Dulan still recovering from the last battering. It's hard picking up the pieces from one hit - taking a second blow within just over a month is downright depressing.

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Drifted further north than initially predicted, putting Dulan back in the danger zone. Won't be a massive-wind event (though windy enough) - but rain will likely be greater than the last one.

Side note: That's a pretty crappy map by CWB - if you didn't know you'd think Kaohsiung is where Taidong is. Despite that, their 24 hr tracks are usually very accurate - to within 20-30km

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Good point about the map!

This looks like it has the potential to dump a lot of rain on Pingtung and Kaohsiung depending on its speed.

Right on the verge now. Pingtung always seems to cop it wherever the typhoon goes - but this one is going directly there, so interesting to see what happens. The eye can offer a little relief - but you do need to navigate through the eye-wall ...

CWB has two windiest places currently as Lanyu (no surprise) & Penghu, which is a little surprising. Shows how the wind wraps around Taiwan & barrels down the strait even quite far from the centre of the storm. The wind image below shows how it makes a perfect '6' formation.

The eye is quite big, making the track somewhat deceptive. Although it's going through the southern tip of Taiwan it's about 50km wide - which puts Taidong City right in the firing line of the northern section of the eye-wall - which is the strongest part wind-wise.

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We can safely say there'll be no cross-strait invasion today. Strongest winds are shooting down the strait now - up to 10 on the Beaufort scale on Penghu.

It's interesting how it's not just the winds generated out from the centre of the typhoon that rock, but, as the image shows, winds sucked into the typhoon.

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Have seen some straight-runners in my time, but this is ridiculous. Traveling on the same parallel for a 1000 km. Shows how strong the H-pressure steering-ridge must be in Japan.

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Straight into the record books!

Taiwan records world's 3rd highest wind gust during Typhoon Koinu

As Typhoon Koinu's storm circle enveloped Taitung County's Orchid Island at 9:53 p.m., the Orchid Island weather station measured a gust of 95.2 meters per second or 342.72 kph (212.95 mph), exceeding level 17, the top of the Beaufort scale, CWA reported. The Taitung weather station said the measurement broke Taiwan's 126-year record and the anemometer was damaged.

According to Huang, this measurement was the highest seen in the 126 years since anemometers were first installed in Taiwan in 1897. In addition, such was the force of the winds generated by Koinu "the anemometer then broke down."

One question is, if the meter broke, how do they know the wind didn't go any higher?

Straight into the record books!

Taiwan records world's 3rd highest wind gust during Typhoon Koinu

As Typhoon Koinu's storm circle enveloped Taitung County's Orchid Island at 9:53 p.m., the Orchid Island weather station measured a gust of 95.2 meters per second or 342.72 kph (212.95 mph), exceeding level 17, the top of the Beaufort scale, CWA reported. The Taitung weather station said the measurement broke Taiwan's 126-year record and the anemometer was damaged.

According to Huang, this measurement was the highest seen in the 126 years since anemometers were first installed in Taiwan in 1897. In addition, such was the force of the winds generated by Koinu "the anemometer then broke down."

One question is, if the meter broke, how do they know the wind didn't go any higher?

That's surprising! Coz it wasn't even that big of a typhoon, supposedly, Cat 2-3?

The thing about typhoons though is they're made up of gusts - or threads of wind. You really get that sensation as they're approaching, it can go from almost calm to a house-rattling gust, then it dies down again until the next gust. As it gets closer, those gusts get stronger, longer & closer together. Even in the eye-wall, there is still that same underlying pattern, though obviously the base-wind is stronger.

So somewhere within Koinu there must have been a rip-snorter gust.

Residents of south Taiwan will be looking for a break, though worryingly, the charts suggest there's another one brewing. Oct typhoons hitting Taiwan are not common, but occasionally there will be a season when they seem to keep coming. Latest i can remember was Nov 1, the year before Nari. It produced a one-in-a-hundred year flood - beaten the very next year by Nari with its one-in-two-hundred-year flood.

El Nino hasn't impacted the east coast of Australia where temperatures, rainfall have been relatively normal - a bit below ave. But it's burning up the west coast.

There are currently fires in Perth outskirts that have destroyed a dozen or so houses, but then the forecast for tomorrow is a shocker - 39C with winds up to 80kph! Good luck stopping a bushfire in those conditions.

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then the forecast for tomorrow is a shocker - 39C with winds up to 80kph! Good luck stopping a bushfire in those conditions.

That's Hawaii disaster type conditions.

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