Tropical Storm Talim - A repeat of 1959?

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Probably won't affect us that much, but could pose some serious problems for the west coast. One of the greatest disasters ever to strike Taiwan was caused by a very similar weather pattern involving a typhoon to the north east and a tropical storm to the south west with Taiwan becoming the meat in the sandwich. Here's a description

"The most serious floods to hit Taiwan in modern times occurred on August 7, 1959. Typhoon Ellen formed in the seas south of Japan, and brought a tropical depression from around the Pratas Islands to Taiwan, causing torrential rains in south and central Taiwan which then created flooding. Rainstorms raged for three days, from August 7 to August 9, covering almost the entire western region, with the heaviest rainfall coming on the 7th. Scholars show that there were 15 places where the rainfall on that day exceeded 500 millimeters, and the storms were centered in Miaoli, Fengyuan, Fenyuan, the upper reaches of the Wu River, Touliu and Alishan.

This sudden, unexpected disaster claimed 667 lives. Another 408 people went missing, 942 people were injured, and there was widespread suffering and unhappiness. All in all, over 300,000 disaster victims were given temporary accommodation by the government. The eventual figure for homes destroyed by the disaster was 27,466, and another 18,303 homes were partially destroyed. Farming, forestry and fishing all suffered heavy setbacks, and a total of 136,542 hectares of farmland alone were destroyed. Railways and roads were severely paralyzed. The railways were struck in 297 different places, and roads in 476."

http://163.20.27.10/web/taiwan/taiwan03/english/eight-seven.htm

Well, no disaster so far. There's a bit of exchange between the two systems, heaviest falls on south central range and south west coast (100+ml). North typh has accelerated away, south one is moving up. Interesting pattern on radar - it's really got that 'scattered' look.

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JTWC is now saying that Talim is going to thread the needle and go right up the straight and continue onto Japan. Never seen that before so i'll be impressed if it does.
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Talim appears to have the potential to be extremely destructive, but at this point it's just too early to tell of course. The worst case scenario is that Talim gets near the Strait and then just sort of doesn't know what it wants to do and wanders around, as a couple of the models below predict. I'm not sure what these models below starting with 'K' are, but they never seem to correctly predict the outcome, and they change by the hour. Even if Talim simply goes straight up the strait, the west coast will get clobbered.

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Highways are getting closed already. It was announced yesterday that Rt. 9 is already closed in anticipation of Talim. Rt. 9 is a main highway. It's the main southern cross island route, merging with 11 on the east coast before splitting again in Taitung and going up the valley.

It looks like there will be a lot of road closures in the next 24 hours or so. The article linked below says they are preparing to close 12 routes around the island, and that's before the landslides start!

http://udn.com/NEWS/NATIONAL/NATS1/7168921.shtml

Although northern Taitung County didn't get hit too terribly hard by the rains last week, Dawu and Taimali got hit quite hard and there was significant flooding and landslides, resulting in the closure of Rt. 11 in that area. They seem to be more prone to flooding because they are on the central mountain range. Any rain hitting the central mountains runs straight into the rivers south of Zhiben, starting with Taimali, whereas north of Zhiben we have the central valley acting as a buffer of sorts.

More information on Rt. 9/11

Apparently, the section of Rt. 9/11 hasn't been fixed since the recent flooding, hence the precautions being taken. It's already a mess, with 82 holes for every 200 meters from Taimali south.

http://udn.com/NEWS/DOMESTIC/DOM7/7168712.shtml

Earthquakes in this area are rare, and anything under a 5.0 is usually not noteworthy. But given all the recent seismic activity in Taiwan, and given the weather, this one is worth noting. Quakes in this area rarely happen in isolation. The roads are already severely damaged by last week's rain and will suffer more damage with Talim. Many are already closed, including 9, which runs very near this epicenter. Still, any quake over a 4.5 or so with an epicenter in this area could exacerbate the situation.

If you were planning on driving or traveling by train anywhere in southern Taiwan over the next 48 hours, I'd get a hotel room, preferably near a good bar.

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/earthquake/Data/quake/EE0619161639135.htm

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Interesting to see how well defined the areas of the heaviest rain are - obviously following mountain range boundaries. It's probably also a good indication of where the front line is going to be in all this. There are places with 300ml and this is just the very beginning. Weirdly, CWB doesn't have any 'Heavy Rain Warning' for tonight - i assume that's just someone falling asleep at the wheel - probably not the best time to be doing that.
Getting lightning with loud thunder here - which is not that common here - and now the rain is starting to pelt down.

I also noticed the absence of any 'extremely heavy rain' advisory, let alone torrential rain. Perhaps they assume a typhoon warning should be enough? They seem to be taking extraordinary precautions this time though. Taipei has already cancelled all classes and work tomorrow, wisely.

We had a lightening strike directly above us. The circuits all crackled and all of that. The weird thing is that the cat freaked about 1/4 second before it hit, the lightening that is, not the thunder. I think we're cutting them short by granting them only six senses.

Wow, you got a bolt of lightning (is 'lightening' an American spelling of the word?) right on top of you! Cool. And a super sensory cat! Lightning rarely gets that close where i am - every couple of years or so - though Dong He might be different.

There really is some unnerving force in that rain when it comes - still just on and off here. Also starting to get a few good gusts coming through from the south. Looking at the sat map, it seems like the south west is in for another deluge any minute now - a big advance party blob of typhoon has broken off and is closing on the south coast. Hang onto your hats down there.

I'm not really prepared for this typhoon - usually there's a week's warning as they approach but this has gone from forming to threatening a national disaster in the space of a couple of days.

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Of course it's lightning, but it should be lightening since I often misspell it that way.

That sort of lightning is common in Pingtung City, and even more common in the nearby mountains, Sandimen and that area. I sort of miss it.

A lot of this is sliding up the east coast - looks like we could cop it almost as bad as the south. I noticed all the mommies dropping their kids off in the driving rain this morning at the local school - surprised classes weren't cancelled today.

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Earthquakes in this area are rare, and anything under a 5.0 is usually not noteworthy. But given all the recent seismic activity in Taiwan, and given the weather, this one is worth noting. Quakes in this area rarely happen in isolation. The roads are already severely damaged by last week's rain and will suffer more damage with Talim. Many are already closed, including 9, which runs very near this epicenter. Still, any quake over a 4.5 or so with an epicenter in this area could exacerbate the situation.

Yeah, good point. That's right in the most saturated zone. Could easily set things off.

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Tropical Storm Talim - A repeat of 1959? (Weather)