Signs that would show China readying Taiwan invasion is an interesting article, but like so much else we read from experts, it seems to have it's share of flimsy reasoning.

Take this bit:

According to Culver, one of the first noticeable signs at least one year before "D-Day" would be an increased stockpiling of ballistic, cruise, anti-air, and air-to-air missiles, as well as rockets to soften up coastal areas. Commercial satellite imagery could be used to monitor the presence of new missile installations and the production of munitions.

OK. Would building islands in the South China Sea qualify? They're building new installations of everything all the time. What form of new is Culver referring to?

There would also be a stockpiling of emergency supplies, suspension of key exports, steps taken to reduce demand or ration goods, and prioritization of key inputs for military manufacturing. International travel restrictions would be imposed on Chinese elites and "high-priority workers."

Interesting. Didn't covid restrictions already do much of this?

Culver writes that Beijing would also seek to prepare the population mentally for a protracted war that would include the deaths of tens of thousands of troops and civilian casualties from U.S. and Taiwan retaliatory assaults. However, the analyst noted that if 2024 was the target date for war, there would have been signs by now, but there have not, meaning that a conflict is unlikely next year.

Disagree. Again, perhaps this explains China's bizarre zero covid policy. In fact, this view would explain much of what is happening in China right now.

Six to 12 months before a PLA invasion, China would likely impose stop loss measures to prevent the demobilization of enlisted personnel and officers. Culver argued that Beijing would have already announced such measures by now if an invasion was in the works for 2024.

Again, they're using covid as their stop loss justification.

He theorized that the PLA would place all forces, even those far from Taiwan, on alert, and troops would be taken off leave and assigned to their bases or vessels. Military air and chartered flights would ferry material and senior officers to key points under the Eastern Theater Command, while aircraft enthusiasts would notice a significant disruption to passenger and cargo flights.

I would argue that much of this is already being done. Clearly, air travel follows no pattern now, so any language of disruption to flights is yesterday's news.

Large numbers of people would be mobilized, including reservists, to protect civilian infrastructure, repair damage from U.S. air strikes, and prevent civil unrest and sabotage. Western companies would suffer significant disruptions to their supply chain as core transit lines and component makers were gearing up for war.

All true, but Chinese being mobilized would be easy. The young Chinese are for the most part hyper-nationalist. And the bit about supply chains? Are you kidding? Has Culver been following the news at all?