Extreme Event Prediction - Formosahut forum

We've seen a lot of predictions of extreme weather and natural disasters, usually connected to climate change and usually stated in general terms. We're often told that we can expect more extreme events, increased temperature and rainfall extremes, etc.

But in the last few days I've run across a couple predictions about very specific events that, if they turn out to be accurate, will result in many hundreds of thousands of deaths, and possibly relatively soon meaning in the next few decades.

The first one is a prediction that there will be another massive earthquake and tsunami in Indonesia that will be even larger than the one years ago.

Scientist who predicted Boxing Day tsunami says another disaster is coming

The data and observations this scientist has gathered to make the prediction is convincing. The video includes some obvious signs of the pressure that is quickly building up. Fascinating video.

Another prediction is for a massive flood to hit the central valley of California, which includes the capital, Sacramento, many other large cities, and the breadbasket (or fruit basket) of America.

A disastrous megaflood is coming to California, experts say, and it could be the most expensive natural disaster in history

Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood

What I didn't know when reading about this is that it happened before in 1861. Sacramento, the new state capital at the time, was under ten feet of debris-filled water for months.

What strikes me about these predictions is, again, they're very specific with the main question not being if, but when. Earthquakes are notoriously hard to time, but Dr Kerry Sieh states in the video that it will most likely happen during the lives of the children in the video, perhaps much sooner. That's very specific.

One question I have is, as these predictions get more and more specific and accurate, will they have any impact?

What strikes me about these predictions is, again, they're very specific with the main question not being if, but when.

One question I have is, as these predictions get more and more specific and accurate, will they have any impact?

I remember we discussed something like this a long time ago - to do with earthquakes - got to the question of: Let's say you could predict earthquakes of >M5 with 60-70% accuracy to within a 3-4 day time-frame. As a government, what are you gonna do with that knowledge? Do you evacuate Hualien for 3-4 days? Evacuate them to where?

Or, to avoid public panic, do you sit on that information, let it happen?

On the other hand, we do have pretty accurate typhoon forecasts. You can usually see them coming a week away vaguely towards your vicinity. As Dan says, when it's several days away, the landfall prediction is almost certainly where it won't be - too many variables - but that tightens up to the point where the last 24-hrs are usually accurate to within 50km.

As to whether accurate predictions have impact? Well, it didn't in Australia during the floods where the storm carved out a slow, predictable march south, but later the authorities who failed to act, said: Who knew? It was unprecedented!

You can't keep saying every disaster that happens is unprecedented, then use that as your cop-out. We can safely say there's a precedent that's formed for extreme weather.

Guess it depends on the government you've got as to how accuratization of disaster modelling is used, informs building standards, mitigation measures, etc. Taiwan seems better at than than Aus.

As to what extent that information is classified ? That's an interesting question.

Also has warfare implications...

We've had a number of small earthquakes in the area in the last couple of hours, the largest being a 4.3 or so. The interesting thing is that the phone app I have announces them before or as they hit. Months ago there was a stronger one for which the app gave me a solid 5-6 second warning, and it showed the countdown to when it would hit my location, which was accurate, but by the time it got to me it was barely noticeable.

I've also checked out the possibility of an earthquake setting of an eruption on Mt. Fuji. Apparently it's a real possibility, and IMO the greatest natural threat to this area. A Mt. Fuji eruption would shut down all of Tokyo for weeks.

Remember the Iceland eruption of 2010? It shut down all sorts of air traffic for weeks. I actually met a guy at the pool in Pingtung who was stuck in Taiwan because of that eruption. And that was in Iceland. Can you imagine a major Fuji eruption?

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