This is what's forecast to happen. The typhoon latches onto the front and follows it up as it recedes to the north east - staying off the east coast. In that case, it will probably be ok - though i daresay it will drag a lot of moisture across Taiwan from that low to the south west of us.

The doom and destruction scenario would be if the front stayed over taiwan, with the typhoon staying on a more westerly course and then recurving up through the front and into taiwan. If that happened then we might have the makings of a modern flood myth right here.

It sure looks like it's going to turn north before hitting us. This front seems to be shifting SE, although it is raining as I type. Regardless, it's fairly early in the season for a typhoon to get this close to Taiwan.

How in the heck do you pronounce 'Guchol'? Interesting name.

Yeah, you would think it wouldn't be able to get past the front, though there is one mob that still has it on a collision course with sth Taiwan. They are also predicting winds of 160kts!

BTW, 'Guchol' means 'spice' - named by the Pacific island nation of Federated States of Micronesia. Will definitely spice up our weather if it comes here.

The various forecasting models seem to be diverging more over the last few hours, though Guchol still looks destined to curve north. We're going to get more rain in the next 48 hours no matter what.

Yeah, it is looking a bit more interesting. If it followed the ridge of the high, as is, it would end up perilously close to Taiwan - depends a lot on the movement of the mei yu stationary front. The white caps i saw this evening, which surprised me coz it was quite calm, were coming up from the south - later i thought they were probably generated by the typhoon.

Whatever, to say there is a lot of weather around at the moment is a big understatement. Check out the length of that front.

There's just nothing good about this lineup. Guchol is going to go north, off our east coast, pulling up that low west of the Philippines, in addition to all the moisture already SW of us, and then there's another low east of Guchol.

Next week is going to be very wet.

Right now 92W, the system on the left, is moving ENE. If it continues in that direction and follows Guchol, it could end up going right of the Taiwan Strait. It's way too early to know what it's going to do, and some models have it going NW to W while others have it going NE.

Right now, i would say it is having a clearing effect on the weather, but yeah, that point in time (Mon-Tues) where the two cyclones align with Taiwan in the middle - you would imagine there would be some rain associated with that. Will be interesting to see what happens.