Extreme Events 2022 - Tonga volcano

This BBC article has 'before and after' images - gives some idea of the devastation.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-60039542

For those interested in extreme events, here's an interesting Rogan podcast with Randall Carlson. It's #1772 on Rogan's Spotify channel.

Interesting article. Worth a read - here are a few highlights:

BBC: The study involved recording the movement patterns of different animals (cows, sheep and dogs) – a process known as biologging – on a farm in the earthquake-prone region of the Marches in central Italy. Collars with chips were attached to each animal, which sent movement data to a central computer every few minutes between October 2016 and April 2017.

The researchers found evidence that the farm animals began to change their behaviour up to 20 hours before an earthquake. Whenever the monitored farm animals were collectively 50% more active for more than 45 minutes at a stretch, the researchers predicted an earthquake with a magnitude above 4.0. Seven out of eight strong earthquakes were correctly predicted in this way.

Researcher: The closer the animals were to the epicentre of the impending shock, the earlier they changed their behaviour. This is exactly what you would expect when physical changes occur more frequently at the epicentre of the impending earthquake and become weaker with increasing distance.

Matthew Blackett: Earthquake precursors aren't well documented scientifically. Perhaps they detect pressure waves before earthquakes arrive, perhaps they detect changes in electric field as fault lines when rock starts to compress. Animals also contain a lot of iron, which is sensitive to magnetism and electric fields.

BBC: Positive holes could also cause certain toxic chemicals to appear before quakes. For example, if they come into contact with water, they can trigger oxidation reactions which create the bleaching agent hydrogen peroxide. Chemical reactions between the charge carriers and organic matter in the soil could trigger other unpleasant products such as ozone.

Jiang Weisong, Nanning: Of all the creatures on the earth, snakes are perhaps the most sensitive to earthquakes. When an earthquake is about to occur, snakes will move out of their nests, even in the cold of winter.

BBC: In 2014, scientists tracking golden-winged warblers in the US recorded a startling example of what's known as an evacuation migration. The birds suddenly took off from their breeding ground in the Cumberland Mountains of eastern Tennessee and flew 700km (435 miles) away – despite having just flown 5,000km (3,100 miles) in from South America. Shortly after the birds left, a terrifying swarm of over 80 tornadoes struck the area, killing 35 people and causing over $1bn (£740m) in damage.

I don't want to be continually slagging off at scientists ... but ... thinking about that article, Thucydides, a BC compulsive chronicler of events, even worse than us, had already recorded, in pain-staking detail, a co-relation between animals and earthquakes. The same phenomenon was also noted in China since ancient times.

But it took scientists another 2500 years to admit it wasn't some crackpot concept after all.

After the tsunami that hit Thailand in 2004, I remember reading about elephants that pulled up the stakes they were tied to and ran into the hills well before the tsunami hit.

Your thread got me thinking about animal behavior that may be caused by natural phenomena that we don't or can't observe. In other words, animals act up before an earthquake, but what about the times they act up due to something we can't observe.

For example, let's say there's some energy release before an earthquake that animals sense but we don't. We then observe the earthquake and remember the animals having a tizzy fit beforehand and put 2 and 2 together, aha, the animals knew before we did.

But there's all sorts of animal behavior we can't explain at all. Could some of this be due to reactions to environmental triggers that we aren't aware of? The assumption (at least according to the nature programs I watched as a kid) is often that it's something internal to the animal. But what if it's entirely external?

But there's all sorts of animal behavior we can't explain at all. Could some of this be due to reactions to environmental triggers that we aren't aware of? The assumption (at least according to the nature programs I watched as a kid) is often that it's something internal to the animal. But what if it's entirely external?

There's radar for a start - extraordinary sense of smell (what info do dog's get from smelling other dogs' piss?) - hearing different frequencies - the navigation skills of homing pigeons and migratory birds - there's a whole other world of sensations that we don't get.

The other side is do we as humans have sensory abilities that we don't utilize properly? Intuition might be one - we know we have it but don't properly understand how it works.

I once knew someone who was likely schizophrenic but in Taiwanese culture she was considered a medium with the other side. Actually i felt this person was being used unscrupulously by relatives for this purpose without regard to her mental health - but maybe there's something in it.

This looks to be a serious rain event.

BBC: At least 25 people have died so far in landslides and floods in the Philippines after Tropical Storm Megi swept the nation.

On Tuesday, rescue crews were still battling to retrieve people stranded on the eastern and southern coasts.

Megi - known locally as Agaton - hit the archipelago on Sunday with winds of up to 65km (40 miles) per hour.

The wind speed is nothing to worry about but the track on CWB has it stalling, right where it's already flooded.

Edit: I see it's dissipated this morning. Big typhoon to the east but looks to be not threatening land.

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This looks like a very similar event to what happened on Aus's east coast. 300mm of rain in a 24 hr period with the storm described as being 'like a tropical cyclone' in terms of the rainfall. It has resulted in at least 300 deaths - due to the extreme rain but also due to inadequate infrastructure.

There's something going on with these sub-tropical low pressure systems - they are becoming bigger/more deadly. It's time to give them a name and plot their paths.

The other learning is for govts to get their heads out of the sand. It's no good just saying it's 'unprecedented' every time and not doing anything.

It's one thing to talk about climate change action and 'reducing emissions by 2050' but that still leaves us with the here and now.

The reports on the SA floods talk about poor drainage - that's the same problem in Australia where the drains are a joke. It's quite a simple thing to do - doesn't involve fancy tech - fly to
Taiwan and take a photo on your phone if you can't work it out - but it's not as glamourous as a new freeway so it always gets shuffled to the bottom of the pack.

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BBC: An intense heatwave is sweeping through northern India with temperatures hitting a record 49.2C (120.5F) in parts of the capital, Delhi.

This is the fifth heatwave in the capital since March.

While heatwaves are common in India, especially in May and June, summer began early this year with high temperatures from March, when the first heatwave arrived.

Average maximum temperatures for the month were the highest in 122 years.

49.2C! We're clearly in a combat phase - some of the conditions cropping up are not compatible with human habitation.

Shaping up as a year of the big floods. Bangladesh, India have had recent floods, now Guangdong province in SE China.
BBC: China's National Meteorological Center said the average rainfall in Guangdong, Fujian and Guangxi provinces between early May and the middle of June reached 621 millimetres - the highest since 1961.

621 mm is not massive for the whole month - during rainy season, but caused record level flooding. Part of the deal appears to be that places not geared up for big falls, are getting them.

Meanwhile heatwaves/droughts happening in US & Europe - some extreme stuff going down one way or the other.

Taiwan has now gone 3 years without a typhoon. Meanwhile, Australia, despite the floods, didn't have any cyclones in the last year (can't remember any the year before either), and it also seems very quiet in the Americas so far as hurricanes go.

This is getting a little odd, especially seeing how there have been extreme weather events galore across the globe from floods to droughts/heatwaves. China & US appear to have both going on in different parts of the country - China is currently facing severe drought and a record run of 40+ C days in the west/mid provinces and recent floods in the south east.

Wonder if there's something going on that's preventing the formation of typhoons etc - or are we simply building up for 'the big one'?

Hard to keep up with all the disasters this year. The tale of record floods or droughts continues in Pakistan with a "monster monsoon" that has caused over 1000 deaths.

It's been an incredible year, and we're only 3/4 through it. I have a feeling the results of all this for the rest of us, those who weren't immediately affected by floods, drought, etc., will be felt in 6-12 months when the cost of lost crops and such hits the markets.

Add to that the international political turmoil that gives little hope of cooperation to address actual human need, and I'd say it's clear that we're pretty well screwed.

Talk about odd, check out Hinnamnor's path, or lack of one. This looks like Morakot action. Okinawa is looking very vulnerable right now.

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From the JTWC:

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
THAT TIME. AFTER TAU 72, HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES AND
IS IN POOR AGREEMENT. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW
AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY BUT DISAGREE ON WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL
WILL TRACK ONCE FORWARD MOTION RESUMES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS A
SOLUTION THAT TURNS TYPHOON 12W BACK TO THE NORTH LEADING TO AN
EVENTUAL RE-CURVATURE SCENARIO. A SECONDARY GROUPING CONSISTING
PRIMARILY OF UKMET OFFICE-BASED MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS HINNAMNOR
WESTWARD TOWARDS TAIWAN.

In human language: They don't know WTF this thing is going to do.

Also reminiscent of Nari, 21 years ago, which did a loop-the-loop twice. It was also a Sep typhoon - during a multiple La Nina event ...

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Still quite far away from Taiwan but Taipei has already had 236 mil today. Looks to be packing some serious precipitation. God help whoever it hits directly.

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Taiwan is as close as you'd ever want to get to this monster. Places got 300mm yesterday from outer bands - imagine if you had that inner band streaming in ...

Meanwhile the whole island of Taketomi is right in the eye now.

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And it looks like there's more coming. I haven't seen a lineup like this in a while.

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Interesting path - couldn't impact more of Japan if it tried.

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Yep, Japan is getting all the action this season. This one could be pretty bad.

What's the update there? I tried using the official Japan weather site (JMA) but it's crap compared to CWB.

Yeah, the Japan site is absolute crap. I keep thinking I'm missing something when I use it, but if one looks for weather information on a weather site and can't easily find it then, sorry, the site is crap! Taiwan's is one of the best I've seen.

The Tokyo area is just now getting some of that Nanmadol. We had some rain of the last day or so, but nothing significant. It looks like we're do to get some downpours today, and it's very dark at 8:15AM, but so far not much going on. Windy.com says we're supposed to get some strong wind before noon. Nothing's moving.

The big story is that after this passes, the low tonight is going to the high teens. That's the first time it's been under 20 since spring.

They're flying thick & fast now. This is a Cat-5 super-typhoon, supposedly, crossing central ppe right now. Went from 0 to cat-5 in record time. Doesn't look huge in size - must be one of those compact ones. Australia's most famous Cyclone, Tracy, was a cat-5 but quite small - almost like a very large tornado.

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Ilan has had 540+ mil today & 700+ in two days - all from a small escaped blob from the typhoon. Those southern typhoons combined with a bit of dong bei ji can really kick up some rain on the north east coast.

Edit: Make that 700+ yesterday & 900+ for event. Coming on top of the earthquakes the SE highway is gonna be a mess.

Rather large hurricane heading very close to your old abode in Tampa ... Takes some special maneuvering to access that area - but it's done it.

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Yeah, it's following a path a little similar to Irma, the one that hit us in 2017 and the last major storm to hit Florida. Irma went more straight up the west coast then cut in. This one's picking up more steam over the water and looks like it's going to be worse than Irma.

This is one reason I would think twice before buying property near the coast in Florida. You have a 100% chance of sooner or later having to evacuate. That would suck.

It's a bit early to raise the alarm, but Roke looks like it will not be a straight shooter.

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Lots & lots of destruction in Florida. This could be up there as one of the worst hurricanes to hit the US - still churning away as it comes out on the east coast. Dan, i wonder how your old house got on?

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Yep, looks pretty bad. Our old house is far north of the action, about an hour north of Tampa, and it's not nearly as nice as the one in your screen grab! But it sounds like parts got hit pretty badly.

We know Ilan (NE Taiwan) is wet, but the rain they've had in the last 3 days is phenomenal. They've already racked up 1500 mm - and still the radar is showing persistent storm activity in the same spot.

It's not a typhoon - just a relatively small system stuck in the same area. Anywhere else in the world that would be a major disaster, but it shows how well Taiwan is prepared for big rain plus the natural run-off from the coastal range. Still, wouldn't want to be driving on the Su-Ao highway - there must be landslides, surely.

The system is meant to drift south today towards Hualien/Taitung. It's packing an incredible punch for something that looks like nothing on the sat image, so watch out!

Meanwhile, there does appear to be typhoon brewing in the usual spot E of PPE.

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Still, wouldn't want to be driving on the Su-Ao highway - there must be landslides, surely.

It looks like the family of this car wishes they hadn't:

Falling rock smashes into family’s car on east Taiwan freeway

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Man, that's as fucking scary as you can get without being dead ...

Why that Su-Hwa Highway was still open on Saturday is questionable. They have big iron gates to lock it down.

Interestingly, the gates were introduced after the buses were swept off the cliffs in landslides during a very similar event - happened Oct 23, 2010. It wasn't a typhoon directly - though there was a typhoon (Megi) that passed south of Taiwan that contributed moisture - but it was the interaction with the NE monsoon that set the downpours off. There's something about that outcrop between Su-Ao to Nan-Ao where it goes crazy when a typhoon mixes with the dong-bei-ji.

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2010/10/23/2003486674

Edit: Dug up the Megi 2010 track

9 News: Thousands of homes across Victoria are now inundated or isolated by floodwater in what authorities have described as a "major emergency for the state".

Emergency Management Commissioner Andrew Crisp: This is a major emergency and we consider this a state of disaster.

Those words make me nervous coming out of Victoria. This is a state that holds all the world records for most draconian lockdowns - etc - all made possible by declaring a State of Disaster. It gives the premier dictatorial control. It's a power-trip. It's also frighteningly popular amongst Victorians, which then feeds back into the power-trip.

The Vic floods do raise questions about Australia's, especially Vic's preparedness for severe weather events.

A week ago we were posting about 1500 mil of rain in Ilan, the only noticeable impact being a round boulder hole in a car roof - this State of Disaster event in Victoria involved 150 mil spread over two days. That's the peak areas. Most places had well under 100 for two days.

Places that are used to extreme weather, such as Taiwan, may be at an advantage coz they've already got the infrastructure to cope with it - the drains, the concrete housing, the emergency response network. But when we've got places going under after 150 mil in the mountains, then that shows how worryingly exposed large parts of the world are to extreme events.

9News: As floodwaters continue to rise, emergency services chiefs have warned the state could experience "some of the largest evacuations" in the state's history.

Seriously? For 150mm of rain spread across two days?! Is Australia's flood mitigation really that pathetic?

Meanwhile Taipei has had another 600mm+ since yesterday - with a lot more to come. Typhoon Nesat is passing south of Taiwan, which is exactly where it can kick up moisture to the east coast which then interacts with the monsoon.

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Shi-lin District, downtown Taipei, has had 1800mm in the last 3-days(!) - and counting. It is causing flooding & landslides. Interestingly, no day off for Taipei.

Meanwhile Victoria is still flooded with its 150mm. It's kinda surreal - it hasn't rained for a couple of days but the flood waters are flowing down the major rivers, swamping towns as they go. My uncle is in one of those towns. He went under in '74 (few inches) but appears to be ok, just, this time.

Has come out that a flood prevention wall built to protect a racecourse resulted in a transference of water into the adjacent residential area in Melbourne. That's like the opposite of a flood-mitigation project.

One to watch. From this Nov 1 position, it's expected to recurve dramatically to the ne - miss Taiwan altogether. Move away quickly. Guess the thinking is it's gonna chase the coldfront to the east. If that happens it'll be fine.

If the high were to build in, however, block its run, causing it to stall in the Nov 1 position, drift up the west coast of Kenting peninsular - that's the nightmare scenario for a big rain event on the south east coat. Like a reverse Morakot effect.

Never seen it happen, not exactly, but it's possible.

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You're right. This doesn't look reassuring.

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CWB has gone full-180. Yesterday it was gonna turn sharp nee, today they've got it going as a straight-runner (sww)

Landfall on PPE will take some sting out of it for TW but will likely still bring down-big-rain for Taitung. Apart from the High, it's all about the moisture feed-in, which looks strong for Nalgae, may even be another queuing up behind.

Nov 4:
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Yeah, the models seem to be shifting to a more westerly track. This http://www.typhoon2000.ph always been a good reference, but maybe not quite as up to the minute as Taiwan's CWB.

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It looks messy structurally but it's wielding a lot of weather in it's swirl. Taiwan east coast will still get big rain but now CWB has it headed for Hainan - straight-runner - not abnormal for this time of year. High looks rock solid - can't see it drifting northward. All lows gravitate towards the poles - it's where they want to go - so takes a solid High to force them to do the opposite.

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This is what i was talking about - that powerful swirl of rain could easily have been torrented into the south east coast if Nalgae was where it was predicted to go, further north, which it didn't.

Couple that with a slow or stalled path up the west coast of the Kenting peninsula (also not happening), you would have the big one so far as a mega-rain event in Taitung.

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At least 50 people killed in Philippines - lots more missing. All due to rain/mudslides.

Ilan has had another 1000mm over the last couple of days - they must be on track for a world record - by my reckoning they've had 5000mm+ in the last month or so.

Wherever Nalge ends up, there will be floods/landlsides. HK appears to be in the firing line.

At least 50 people killed in Philippines - lots more missing. All due to rain/mudslides.

Ilan has had another 1000mm over the last couple of days - they must be on track for a world record - by my reckoning they've had 5000mm+ in the last month or so.

Wherever Nalge ends up, there will be floods/landlsides. HK appears to be in the firing line.

5000mm is an unbelievable amount of rain. Fifteen feet +. Of rain. If that were snow, it would be over 100 feet. The rough conversion of rain to snow is 1 to 5, but according to this calculator, temperature makes a big difference.

It sure looks like the east coast is in for it:

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Throw in an M5 earthquake for good measure - epicentre looks very close to Dulan.

That could easily go again, potentially bigger as well.

Meanwhile, whole east coast is getting pummeled - serious kinda subsystem hitting Taitung right now

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Those guys driving the big earth-moving rigs in Taiwan deserve a medal. That's gotta be one of the hairiest jobs going around moving landslides off roads - but they're always out there as soon as the typhoon passes.

One thing people often under-appreciate about the Taiwanese character is the toughness.

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I wonder how often they hear a small (or big) ding on the roof of their cab. It must make the heart skip a beat. Or feel the whole thing shift sideways.

Another scary thing to look at are the guys who work barefoot on the bamboo scaffolding many stories above ground with no safety net or harness. I don't have any pictures but you see it all the time.

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