War in Taiwan 2022 - Formosahut forum

Taiwan News: The Air Force lost contact with an F-16V on Tuesday (Jan. 11) while it was flying off the west coast of Taiwan.

During a training exercise off the coast of Chiayi County's Dongshi Township, an F-16V (Block 20) fighter suddenly disappeared from radar screens, and ground crews lost contact with it, according to the Ministry of National Defense

Fighter jets crash - it happens often enough - but in the current climate it raises questions.

Funnily enough i feel the chance of a World War is not likely anymore. I suspect that's not how business gets done by the big boys these days.

Far from a super-power conflict, it feels more likely they will unite in the war on individuals.

I don't like the way this is playing out. Putin indicates he's going to invade Ukraine and the rest of the world sits around and watches, macabrely waiting for it to happen, having already announced they won't get involved militarily.

When it does happen, which seems certain, we will have some trade sanctions and a few toothless UN resolutions asking everyone to settle their differences through peaceful means.

All the while China is watching and thinking 'Great - let's do that with Taiwan!'

If i'm China, I'm thinking to launch an invasion of Taiwan off the back of Ukraine. This is too big a window to ignore.

Meanwhile the west is hopelessly divided due to Covid. Can you see Canadians uniting behind Trudeau for example? French behind Macron? US behind Biden?

I don't like the way this is playing out. Putin indicates he's going to invade Ukraine and the rest of the world sits around and watches, macabrely waiting for it to happen, having already announced they won't get involved militarily.

All the while China is watching and thinking 'Great - let's do that with Taiwan!'

If i'm China, I'm thinking to launch an invasion of Taiwan off the back of Ukraine. This is too big a window to ignore.

These have been my thoughts exactly. Xi and Putin had their meeting before the Winter Olympics in which they agreed to each other's claims over Taiwan and Ukraine respectively.

BEIJING (AP) — The leaders of Russia and China pushed back against U.S. pressure on Friday, declaring their opposition to any expansion of NATO and affirming that the island of Taiwan is a part of China, as they met hours before the Winter Olympics kicked off in Beijing. (Published Feb 5)

If this war happens, as you point out, it will open a huge window for China to move on Taiwan. Europe will obviously be too focused on Europe to worry about Asia, as will, I suspect, the US. It will make the likelihood of the US coming to the aid of Taiwan even less likely than it has been. Also, it will give those who speak boldly about defending Taiwan but who privately just wish the whole mess would go away a face saving exit from the Taiwan question.

Meanwhile, the world economy and multiple currencies are all on the brink of collapse, making war even more likely. There was news of another Chinese developer who may default, bringing into question the state of China's economy, one more reason for China to attack Taiwan -- to deflect attention from the mess at home.

There are so many forces at work here, and they're all bad.

More on that Feb 5 meeting between Xi and Putin

BEIJING/ MOSCOW/WASHINGTON, Feb 4 (Reuters) - China and Russia on the opening day of the Winter Olympics declared a "no limits" partnership, backing each other over standoffs on Ukraine and Taiwan with a promise to collaborate more against the West.

President Xi Jinping hosted President Vladimir Putin on Friday as the two nations said their relationship was superior to any Cold War era alliance and they would work together on space, climate change, artificial intelligence and control of the internet.

Beijing supported Russia's demand that Ukraine should not be admitted into NATO, as the Kremlin amasses 100,000 troops near its neighbour, while Moscow opposed any form of independence for Taiwan, as global powers jostle over their spheres of influence.

That last paragraph is certainly timely.

This is an historical exchange, and I think it time it will go down as being equivalent to the exchange during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.

My fear is, if it comes to pass, which I hope it doesn't, what will be the equivalent if China makes a move on Taiwan.

Guardian: Victorian premier Daniel Andrews has announced that buildings in Melbourne’s CBD will be lit up in the colours of the Ukrainian flag, in a show of support to the people of Ukraine.

I'm sure Putin is shaking in his boots about that.

Then they can switch to red and blue lights for Taiwan.

That's a good analysis you wrote - it does seem like the deal has been done.

That's a good analysis you wrote - it does seem like the deal has been done.

Except that in the Cuban missile crisis, Russia backed down. They're not going to do that this time. Why should they? If they've struck a deal with China, which clearly they have, then the assumption is that they, meaning Russia and China, hold the cards, the cards being oil, production of goods, and wheat.

The one big card they don't hold is chip manufacturing, most of which lies in Taiwan and the US.

But if Putin succeeds in taking Ukraine, what is to stop China from taking Taiwan?

Re the chip manufacturing - would China have the TSMC plant on their list of things to bomb - or would the thinking be 'we own it now, don't break it'.

Re the chip manufacturing - would China have the TSMC plant on their list of things to bomb - or would the thinking be 'we own it now, don't break it'.

Excellent question. I guess it would somewhat depend on to what extent they had prepared facilities in China to take over production, at least for their own chip security.

If they had already prepared to take up the slack, then destroying TSMC facilities would only boost their payoff. They would be weakening their adversaries while capturing some of the global market for chips.

I don't know anything about chip making but i understand that extreme cleanliness in production has something to do with it - in fact it's one of the hardest parts, supposedly - is that right?

Apparently that's something TSMC has mastered but others haven't.

The CCP's response is hard to fathom. Zero tolerance for Covid seems impossible to achieve - so why are they doubling down?

Possible answer: they're prepping

Disentanglement from the world in readiness for sanctions when they invade Taiwan. Pulling up the drawbridges.

One thing i'm sure as hell about is that the West is not ready for what that disentanglement will look like - but maybe the CCP management is - or is getting ready for it. Who can keep their population under control the best when the shit hits the supply-chain fan?

It's not gonna be like Russia sanctions where the price of oil goes up, but not much else impact abroad - coz there's no where near the volume of trade with the West that China has. We're talking shelves emptying of everyday items overnight.

That's if it's only a sanction war response like Ukraine. If it's shooting war then the internet and electricity are likely going out for extended periods.

The CCP's response is hard to fathom. Zero tolerance for Covid seems impossible to achieve - so why are they doubling down?

Possible answer: they're prepping

Disentanglement from the world in readiness for sanctions when they invade Taiwan. Pulling up the drawbridges.

Well, shit. I hadn't considered that that could be the reason, but you make a good point. I have been completely perplexed by their zero tolerance stance which they must realize is entirely impossible to achieve.

Well, you can maintain zero tolerance, but they'll never wipe out covid, and they know that, so what do they hope to achieve with zero tolerance? That has been what I've been wondering. Why are they doing it? Prepping might indeed be the answer.

There's a flip side of sorts as well. Because zero tolerance will ultimately lead to massive civil unrest, and because covid will eventually catch up with China and overrun it's health care system just as it did in other countries, albeit for a limited time, this may lead to China moving on Taiwan in order to deflect that civil unrest and to justify the straight jacket approach.

Either way you look at it, what's happening is not good. Either they stop the zero approach, lose face, and allow covid to take its natural course, which it will regardless, or they maintain this insanity which will have its breaking point. Perhaps its at that breaking point that a move on Taiwan would materialize. Let's hope not.

One thing i'm sure as hell about is that the West is not ready for what that disentanglement will look like - but maybe the CCP management is - or is getting ready for it. Who can keep their population under control the best when the shit hits the supply-chain fan?

This is why so many American have been stocking up on guns and ammo. It's not going to be pretty in the US.

It's not gonna be like Russia sanctions where the price of oil goes up, but not much else impact abroad - coz there's no where near the volume of trade with the West that China has. We're talking shelves emptying of everyday items overnight.

The US has no shortage of financial services and nail salons. That's about it.

That's if it's only a sanction war response like Ukraine. If it's shooting war then the internet and electricity are likely going out for extended periods.

I'm getting a little more concerned about this at some point going nuclear. It could happen in a heartbeat. Or we could see all sorts of old and new crazy weapons put to use, including chemical, biological, microwave... you name it. Cyber attacks will likely be the first to go full scale, and that might be all it takes to take everything off line, or worse.

Best place to be? I'd think where you are isn't bad. You at least have land and chickens. I used to think a small island would suck at such a time, now I'm rethinking that. The worst place would probably be some impersonal, large US metropolis or maybe, worse yet, the impoverished US semi-rural areas where everybody is armed to the teeth and hungry. Yikes.

I'm getting a little more concerned about this at some point going nuclear. It could happen in a heartbeat. Or we could see all sorts of old and new crazy weapons put to use, including chemical, biological, microwave... you name it. Cyber attacks will likely be the first to go full scale, and that might be all it takes to take everything off line, or worse.

The thing that makes me doubt a WW3 is that those in power, who have shown through Covid that they'll do anything to maintain/increase that power, run the risk of having it all come tumbling down in a war.

Unless, it's as you mentioned before: a limited, tactical nuclear war in designated regions - including a gentleman's agreement that we don't newk each other's safe-zones.

The thing that makes me doubt a WW3 is that those in power, who have shown through Covid that they'll do anything to maintain/increase that power, run the risk of having it all come tumbling down in a war.

I agree, which is why I think it would most likely only happen when those in power fear losing that power, and we're getting close to that situation now on three fronts.

Russia. The west has put Putin's economy in a strangle hold. Sooner or later, Russians are going to feel the pain, and it's going to start with the richest and poorest of them. He's going to start feeling the heat, and he'll be in danger of a revolt either by those rich enough to take him out, those poor enough to have nothing to lose, or both. In such a situation, war provides an out for him, a war on a far larger scale that what we have now.

China. Xi's zero policy is a dead end. It won't work. It will either crash the economy or result in popular rebellion, or both. If he's smart, he'll find a creative way to back out of it without losing face. The problem is that they've held this policy for so long that the population has not had the opportunity to build a natural herd immunity, like most of the rest of the world. So if he loosens up, covid will ravage China. If he doesn't, he's facing riots. It's a no win situation. Moving on Taiwan would help Xi under either of these outcomes.

US: The US dollar will rise in all this turmoil as the safe currency, but the fact is that it's an empty currency. It's financed through debt. When countries turn to the USD as a safe haven, they're buying what they perceive to be the safest form of debt. It's gotten so out of control that nobody in their right mind really believes that these currencies have any value other than what they can buy day to day. This inflation we're seeing is a long time coming. It's just the start. The US is on a precipice, and it's hanging on by a fingernail. When things get like this, they collapse not over the course of years, months, or weeks. They collapse over the course of a few days. That's what's going to happen in the US. A good old fashioned war would help people stay in office.

Unless, it's as you mentioned before: a limited, tactical nuclear war in designated regions - including a gentleman's agreement that we don't newk each other's safe-zones.

It will be dramatic, whatever it is. Enough to get people's attention and compliance.

Reports of a major fencing operation going on in Shanghai as part of the CCP's increasingly absurd zero-Covid policy.

The photo of a convoy of trucks laden with green fencing shows the level of preparedness - similar to the pop-up quarantine facilities built in seven days in Wuhan. Kinda creepy that they've got this stuff sitting around ready to be deployed on their one people.

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Hmmm... caged animals they have become.

Taiwan flags risk of Stinger missile delays, says pressing U.S.

This development will only serve to encourage China to act sooner rather than later.

From the article:

TAIPEI, May 3 (Reuters) - Taiwan's Defence Ministry on Tuesday said deliveries of shoulder-fired Stinger anti-aircraft missiles could be delayed, saying they were pressing the United States to deliver on schedule as the war in Ukraine pressures supplies.

This is the second time this week the ministry has warned of delayed deliveries of U.S. weapons.

There's more on this story here:

Taiwan considers alternatives after U.S. informs of howitzer delay

From the article:

TAIPEI, May 2 (Reuters) - Taiwan's Defence Ministry said on Monday it was considering alternative weapons options after the United States informed it that the delivery of an artillery system would be delayed due to a "crowded" production line.

Washington last year approved the potential sale of 40 155mm M109A6 Medium Self-Propelled Howitzer artillery systems to Taiwan in a deal valued at up to $750 million, which Taiwanese media said had been due to be delivered by 2023.

Taiwan's Defence Ministry said, however, that because of a "crowded" production line for the M109A6, the U.S. had told it this would not happen until 2026 at the earliest.

And yet more background here:
Shrinking U.S. Stinger missile supply faces re-stocking challenges

From the article:

WASHINGTON, April 26 (Reuters) - Shoulder-fired Stinger missiles are in hot demand in Ukraine where they have successfully stopped Russian assaults from the air, but U.S. supplies have shrunk and producing more of the anti-aircraft weapons faces significant hurdles.

All of this suggests a weakening in Taiwan's defense capabilities due almost entirely to what's happening in Ukraine. There have been multiple articles since the war in Ukraine started suggesting that Russia's poor performance coupled with the unified response from NATO countries would cause China to think twice before taking action on Taiwan. But the above stories give China a reason to strike while the iron is hot. Assuming the Ukraine war could go on for years, Taiwan's posture could weaken at the same time, giving further reason for China to move on Taiwan.

Crowded production line?

Ohr, sorry, we couldn't come through for you on the weapons in your hour of need due to a crowded production line. It's not personal - it's just business.

That's pure market-driven morality, which i worry will/has already decided to sell Taiwan out for the higher-goal of global security.

Whilst visiting Japan, Biden was asked by a reporter if the US would defend Taiwan militarily if China invaded, when it has not done so in the invasion of Ukraine

Biden: Yes... that's the commitment we made.

That's a good move. There's nothing to be gained from the old policy of deliberate ambiguity - unless your plan is to do nothing - in which case 'bluff' is all you have.

The best cure for war in Taiwan is prevention. There's a lot at stake for China if an invasion of Taiwan fails, so let them know in advance that if you do A, then B is gonna happen.

The CCP are smart enough to take that onboard - it may act as a deterrent. If it doesn't, you haven't lost anything strategically.

Whilst visiting Japan, Biden was asked by a reporter if the US would defend Taiwan militarily if China invaded, when it has not done so in the invasion of Ukraine

Biden: Yes... that's the commitment we made.

That's a good move. There's nothing to be gained from the old policy of deliberate ambiguity - unless your plan is to do nothing - in which case 'bluff' is all you have.

The best cure for war in Taiwan is prevention. There's a lot at stake for China if an invasion of Taiwan fails, so let them know in advance that if you do A, then B is gonna happen.

They're playing the 'he's old' card, which is indeed smart. He's old, could be getting dementia, so he can say what he wants then they walk it back a step or two within 24 hours. This time, I think the clarification was something along the lines of "Our position on Taiwan has not changed."

Biden & Co. know exactly what they're doing with these mixed messages.

9 News: A Chinese J-16 jet flew "very close" to a RAAF P-8A Poseidon, set off flares and dropped chaff in its path as it conducted routine surveillance in the South China Sea on May 26.

Routine surveillance being spying - which they all do, like there's no tomorrow.

Aus says it was international waters - China says otherwise.

Zhao Lijian, Foreign Ministry spokesperson: The Australian military aircraft seriously threatened China's sovereignty and security, and the response measures taken by the Chinese military were professional, safe, reasonable and legal.

The Australian side sought to confound black and white and repeatedly spread the false narrative which is aimed at inciting antagonism and confrontation.

We urge the Australian side to immediately stop such dangerous and provocative acts and seriously dissuade its air and naval forces from such acts. Otherwise, any serious consequence arising therefrom shall be borne by the Australian side.

Zhao is the classic wolf diplomat - he may have invented it. There's a reason why he does it - bullying works.

Evidenced by Albanese's mission to 'repair relations with China' since he got elected.

Doubt they would try that on the US.

Doubt they would try that on the US.

Hard to say. They may be using Australia as a canary, seeing how far down the rabbit hole or confrontation they can go. This was low hanging fruit, a test run I suspect.

We've been warning of this for years but nice to see the security organizations, whose actual job it is to warn people/govts, catching up.

Christopher Wray,FBI: We consistently see that it's the Chinese government that poses the biggest long-term threat to our economic and national security, and by 'our,' I mean both of our nations, along with our allies in Europe and elsewhere.

(The CCP) is looking to insulate their economy. In our world, we call that behaviour a clue. Just as in Russia, Western investments built over years could become hostages, capital stranded [and] supply chains and relationships disrupted. (War in Taiwan) would represent one of the most horrific business disruptions the world has ever seen.

Again, this was our take from months ago. China is clearly prepping.

Ken McCullum, MI5: (China's) covert pressure across the globe (is) the most game-changing challenge we face. This might feel abstract. But it's real and it's pressing. We need to talk about it. We need to act.

Couldn't state it any plainer. We've mentioned this a bunch of times but the warning over Taiwan is particularly salient. Due to the moths-to-the-money-flame syndrome, governments refuse to recognize exactly what a war in Taiwan is going to look like. Shelves in major retail stores will empty overnight. Computers (and most electrical goods) will become virtually unprocurable. As Wray and McCullum point out, China is getting ready, but way too many western corporations/govts are still clinging onto the CCP money pipeline. Australia is, bizarrely, trying to ramp it up!

By doing so, they are not only ignoring common-sense, but even the heads of US/UK security organizations. Later, they will say, Oh, who knew?.

Again, this was our take from months ago. China is clearly prepping.

Agreed, and they're playing the long game as they always do, a game the US has not only never been good at, they haven't even existed long enough to play. China holds the cards here. The only thing the US has is military might and a strong currency. That's a lot, but China, again, is playing the long game, prepping for all contingencies. The US preps for very short term scenarios.

I can see a strategy of China and Russia. One of protracting the Ukraine war, thereby using Western military resources while at the same time depleting public enthusiasm for war. Eventually, assuming there's a chicken in every pot, Americans will cease to care about Ukraine. It will no longer be headline news. Or maybe it will, in which case it will become even more tiring, because, at the end of the day, people don't give a shit about anything that doesn't negatively impact their lives.

So maybe the US will somehow play the Ukraine war in this way or that, but they will keep pumping money into it, and weapons. It's good for business.

So what happens in 16 months when the war is still going on, people are sick of hearing about it, don't care, brutality everywhere, and something happens in Taiwan? To what extent at that point will the US and its allies be able to defend Taiwan?

I don't know. Perhaps it will be more, perhaps less, but it will certainly be a more complicated situation, and I think China is playing that long game, waiting for those complications and stressors on the ability of other countries to come to Taiwan's defense to build. Smart.

A coordinated strategy between Russia and China for a move on Taiwan would be particularly effective if taken in 8-16 months when the US is in a recession and severely weakened. Supply lines would dry up dealing a death blow to the US economy. This would be a 1-2 punch that might be in the works right now between Russia and China that the US is too arrogant to consider and discuss in a public forum.

So maybe the US will somehow play the Ukraine war in this way or that, but they will keep pumping money into it, and weapons. It's good for business.

As you say, it is a game (in which we have little-to-no say). Even the participants will admit that.

Speaking of which, Nancy Pelosi is currently on-stage. I like Nancy, she's a shit-stirrer - still - at 82.
Pelosi: Our delegation came to Taiwan to make it unequivocally clear we will not abandon Taiwan. The story of Taiwan is an inspiration to all freedom-loving people.

Taiwan is one of the most free societies in the world .. We come in friendship to Taiwan; we come in peace to the region.

Pelosi/Twitter: Our delegation’s visit to Taiwan honors America’s unwavering commitment to supporting Taiwan’s vibrant Democracy.

Our discussions with Taiwan leadership reaffirm our support for our partner & promote our shared interests, including advancing a free & open Indo-Pacific region.

America’s solidarity with the 23 million people of Taiwan is more important today than ever, as the world faces a choice between autocracy and democracy.

Couldn't have put it better myself. Compare that to the chicken-shit, appeasing robo-speak coming out of Australian Government mouths (whose only comment was a back-handed rebuke by foreign minister Pong to Pelosi, calling for 'both sides not to inflame the situation') - it gives me heart that there is still a will to defend Taiwan.

I'm curious to see how China responds. As one Taiwan resident said in an interview, I'm paraphrasing, Every mother knows, if you're always threatening punishment but never follow through, you'll soon be ignored.

Nothing has happened yet, but the CCP has announced live-fire exercises around Taiwan over the next couple of days. If you see the map, the exercise will totally surround Taiwan. Will it be a sabre rattling exercise, fire a few missiles over Taiwan, or will they maintain those positions for a full-scale invasion?

Don't want to sound like a war-monger, but, apart from Taiwan, is a war over Taiwan the best way to free HK (and Tibet, Xinchiang)? You'd imagine there would be a decent underground movement in HK all ready to roll ...

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Yeah, that map says it all. If they maintain those positions, aren't they coming very close to imposing a blockade on the Kaohsiung harbor? I'm not sure what the shipping routes are. They'd be easy enough to find. If you look at https://www.marinetraffic.com, it looks like a complete clusterfuck out there. Does that map demarcate no go zones for ships? I don't see how that will work.

So it will be interesting to see what happens. But you're right. They have to do something substantial just to save face and maintain status at home. I'm thinking these war games may go on and the positions held. That could put pressure on Taiwan to respond militarily, and if Taiwan takes that bait, well, let the games begin on the next level.

I can see them using the interruption of shipping under the guise of war games as a tool, or outright stopping vessels in the South China Sea, which they claim in its entirety, because they are suspected of shipping contraband, weapons, whatever, it doesn't really matter. They're just going to fuck with Taiwan now on a more intense, in-your-face scale.

They can do all kinds of shit. All they have to do is get Taiwan to fire the first shot, and Taiwan won't, so they can press really, really close and hard. They've only just begun to test the limits, I'm guessing.

They have to do something substantial just to save face and maintain status at home. I'm thinking these war games may go on and the positions held. That could put pressure on Taiwan to respond militarily, and if Taiwan takes that bait, well, let the games begin on the next level.

A blockade would be a big move. Better buy that back-up computer soon as Taiwan supplies, astonishingly, more than half the world's computer chips. I assume that even a disruption in shipping would make computers/phones very hard to get.

Interestingly, Taiwan-China trade increased by 26% in the last year! In the same time-frame, China banned every Aus product except iron-ore. That's the advantage of having a manufacturing sector that produces essential goods - as opposed to wine and tourism.

The next few days might tell the story as to where this is heading.

A friend from Taiwan sent me the below image. Shows that it's not only China with a strong military presence around Taiwan with three US warships placed strategically nearby - so enacting a shipping-blockade is not as simple as it may sound. Apart from the aircraft carriers depicted on the map, he says there are 32 US warships in the vicinity. So it's getting pretty congested!

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Taiwan News — Taiwanese military expert Lu Li-shi (呂禮詩) predicts that China could fire missiles over Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung as they head toward one of the six zones the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has designated for live-fire exercises this week.

This is looking worrying. If not a full-scale blockade, it's enough to disrupt supply routes - play havoc with the world economy - which is exactly what the CCP has been prepping for. I can see them either dragging the exercises out/increasing them or using them as a pop-up disruption. Supposedly they are meant to go from Aug 4 (today) to Aug 7. So we'll soon see.

In terms of the 'in-your-face' stuff you mentioned, that's just sort of shooting war, that leaves, psychological, cyber, economic, and .. bio-warfare. Or did we already have the last one?

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Apparently there have been many flights cancelled over the last couple of days, and I just took the screenshot below from https://www.marinetraffic.com. It sure looks like ships are avoiding the areas China is lobbing missiles into.

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The shipping disruption seems to be a little more pronounced now.

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One of these goes straight over the 101 tower. There's more ways to conduct a blockage than surround it with ships - just make all the areas around live-fire target zones.

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The shipping disruption seems to be a little more pronounced now.

Must create bottleneck disruption at least. Seems 'supply-chain' is coming into focus as a main lever for the CCP.

Here's an interesting perspective.

One takeaway from this interview is that China has a window now to invade as many of the systems the US is selling Taiwan won't arrive until the 2030's.

Here's an interesting perspective.

One takeaway from this interview is that China has a window now to invade as many of the systems the US is selling Taiwan won't arrive until the 2030's.

Might be a long war ...

(Taiwan News) — Chinese state-run media on Sunday (Aug. 7) announced that although four days of military exercises were set to end, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will start to hold "regular" military drills east of Taiwan's median line.

China's state-run TV news station CCTV cited a commentator .. (who) claimed that the median line has never received legal recognition and described it as an "imaginary" line conceived by the U.S. military in the previous century to meet their combat needs.

This is what we were talking about - the never-ending live-fire exercises with the potential to play havoc with the supply chain.

At what point does the US apply trade sanctions on China? (forget about Aus - never is the short answer)

Can US survive a trade cutoff with China?

Currently, they're terrorizing Taiwan - entrenching forces - controlling zones. As pay-back for a visit to a free country? It's not commensurate. Guess it wasn't meant to be.

This is what we were talking about - the never-ending live-fire exercises with the potential to play havoc with the supply chain.

That's the game I see them playing. Creeping and encroaching to whatever extent they can, then waiting until that is the new normal. China holds all the cards now. Let's say their navy vessels get to the point at which they're more or less constantly visible from the Taiwan coast, at least with binoculars. What then? And what is to stop them from getting to that point? I mean, they've crossed the proverbial line already, nobody does shit, so why not just keep creeping up?

The fact is that they know that neither Taiwan nor the US is going to stop them. I think they're going to just slowly, methodically, subsume Taiwan. It's happening before our eyes. Then, they may pounce and take the quick route of a blitzkrieg if necessary. That's what they're getting into the position for, but they may not have to do it. They might be able to just bring Taiwan to its knees economically.

At what point does the US apply trade sanctions on China? (forget about Aus - never is the short answer)

It can't. It would be economic suicide for the US. China has massively outplayed the US on trade.

Can US survive a trade cutoff with China?

Nope, because we don't manufacture shit.

The hand has been dealt, the cards largely played, and China has won. The world is just in denial at this point.

And I would add that I think the US will likely abandon Taiwan rather than wage all out war with China. It might put up a token fight,one that nobody would confuse with anything seriousness enough to lead to nuclear war. But I think there's a very good chance that the US will let China have Taiwan.

But, they'll use that as leverage to increase military positions in East Asia, particularly the Philippines, which they'll try to reestablish bases in, and Pacific Island nations, Australia, etc.

I hope none of that happens. But what would a war between China and the US look like? I mean, seriously, what would be the outcome of that? How would it be resolved? And could it be resolved without going nuclear?

This is why the status quo is just fine!

The hand has been dealt, the cards largely played, and China has won. The world is just in denial at this point.

That's a bit bleak, but probably true. Any way you slice it, it's hard to see how the western world can function without Chinese goods/money - which doesn't leave much room for doing anything.

There currently appears to be zero-will in Australia to de-couple from this trade-trap. Politicians know it would cause economic pain in the short term, which would cause them to lose the election - so - just forget about it ...

There's a (large) portion of Taiwanese who simply want to be left alone - they don't want to become a political plaything for either the US or China, but that seems a forlorn hope now.

That's a bit bleak, but probably true. Any way you slice it, it's hard to see how the western world can function without Chinese goods/money - which doesn't leave much room for doing anything.

It is bleak, maybe overly so. I mean there is hope that everything will be resolved peacefully, and hopefully that will happen. But if China decides that it's tired of waiting and puts on the serious squeeze, I don't see the west coming to the rescue. The US is economically bogged down in Ukraine, plus its sending a shitload of weapons there, depleting stocks.

There's another angle to this for the US. Its bases in Okinawa and Guam are extremely unpopular. In fact the US is being forced to relocated troops from Okinawa to Guam as a result of a string of horrid crimes committed by US soldiers.

Strategists must have entertained the cynical view that in the event of China taking Taiwan, US bases might get a boost of support. Plus, Marcos Jr. just won the presidency in the Philippines, and I can see the US using the fall of Taiwan as a selling point to get more of a presence in the Philippines and possibly other places like Palau. I mean, the US military will never have a formal presence in Taiwan (well, never say never, but...), so in a sense, the fall of Taiwan would have some positive strategic outcome for the US.

There currently appears to be zero-will in Australia to de-couple from this trade-trap. Politicians know it would cause economic pain in the short term, which would cause them to lose the election - so - just forget about it ...

Exactly the same situation in the US.

There's a (large) portion of Taiwanese who simply want to be left alone - they don't want to become a political plaything for either the US or China, but that seems a forlorn hope now.

Yeah, and this is the tragedy of it all. It's the Taiwanese who just want to hang out and sell their zhenzhunaicha and computer chips who will suffer the consequences. I just can't imagine China occupying Taiwan. I do sort of think a lot of people in Taiwan have their head in the sand as a natural reaction. I mean, how else can you respond? It's striking, though, when you see or read interviews of Taiwanese brushing off any threat of invasion just like the Ukrainians did up to the hour the Russians attacked.

Strategists must have entertained the cynical view that in the event of China taking Taiwan, US bases might get a boost of support. Plus, Marcos Jr. just won the presidency in the Philippines, and I can see the US using the fall of Taiwan as a selling point to get more of a presence in the Philippines and possibly other places like Palau.

So cut your losses then consolidate the rest? Yeah, i hope it's not that, but it's a plausible scenario. That's why i never trusted Trump's rhetoric on China - you always felt like he saw Taiwan as a bargaining chip.

Like a lot of things, the mistakes were made many years ago. Yesterday i cut down a tree that was too close to the house. Apart from filling the gutters with leaves, clogging the down-pipes, there's the fire hazard it posed if a bushfire comes this way. It was a big job - dangerous - to me - and also the risk that it might fall on the house. If i'd done it when i first got here it would have been a lot easier. If the people who lived here before me had had the foresight, they could have bent down and plucked it straight out of the ground as a seedling.

Similarly, the west allowed the situation with Taiwan/China to get out of hand to the point where a simple visit from a senior politician becomes a potential trigger for war.

There were two moments in history that stick out.

1. Switching recognition from Taiwan to China. You could argue this was partly/mainly the fault of the KMT who were still insisting on their status as rightful rulers of all China, but Kissinger is also to blame for his lack of foresight as to where it would end up. (Or did he know, but thought, according to his 'higher-truth', that it was the best thing for the 'new world order'?)

2. Post Tienanmen Square. At that time there was limited trade with China, and, as i remember, trade sanctions were placed on China as a containment policy. There was also strong public sentiment in the west to reject the totalitarianism of the CCP. Australia's PM of the time, Bob Hawke, famously broke down sobbing on TV at a memorial for the slain protesters. But then came the rise of 'economic rationalism', with it's core principle of not getting caught up in politics or morality, but simply doing whatever makes the most money in the immediate future. As such the sanctions were all lifted, 'the pivot to China' began, and UFWD began its push into western institutions - and so we've arrived at the situation we are in today. (note: you can also blame economic rationalism for dragging out the use of fossil fuels - long after we had alternatives)

Things can still be done - but it takes political will. First job is sort out manufacturing. It's beyond absurd that we are reliant on a totalitarian regime for half the goods in our house. Same way i eventually managed to get the tree down and cut-up. It's a difficult job, pity i didn't do it sooner, but it was still doable.

So cut your losses then consolidate the rest? Yeah, i hope it's not that, but it's a plausible scenario. That's why i never trusted Trump's rhetoric on China - you always felt like he saw Taiwan as a bargaining chip.

Something like that. Trump is full of shit. The only thing he cares about is himself. He'd turn on his own family. I truly believe that. And the US just doesn't have the will to fight a bloody, full on war against a military equal, which China is now. Sure, we'll bomb Iraq to shit and make it look great on TV. But going up against China over Taiwan goes so far in China's favor that the US govt. won't consider it. For China, it's a national mission of spiritual proportions. Most Americans don't know where the fuck Taiwan is, and once they see ships getting sunk and hundreds, maybe thousands of soldiers dying every day, well... no US politician is going to go there.

Now, the one thing that would change that is if China were to attack US bases in Japan or Guam, or if they were to fire the first shot and sink a ship. Then the whole cowboy American pride quality would come into play, similar to what led the US into WWII. But ultimately it's all politics, power, and money. Democratic virtue doesn't mean shit to US politicians. They thwart democracy whenever democracy doesn't serve them, and praise its virtues when it does. Just look at how the Democratic Party is trying to block the Green Party in the US

There were two moments in history that stick out.

1. Switching recognition from Taiwan to China.

2. Post Tienanmen Square.

Agreed, and I would add a more recent example, and that is Obama's failure to block or at least slow down China's expansion into the South China Sea by building then militarizing islands. It mostly happened under his watch. Sure he paid lip service, but he didn't do shit about it. In fact, aside from legalizing same sex marriage, Obama didn't actually do anything at all during his whole 8-year presidency, even though he had the congress. Obamacare is a fucking nightmare and a cash cow for the insurance industry. I really had high hopes for him, but he ended up being just like all the other presidents, nothing. A corporate lap dog.

Things can still be done - but it takes political will. First job is sort out manufacturing. It's beyond absurd that we are reliant on a totalitarian regime for half the goods in our house. Same way i eventually managed to get the tree down and cut-up. It's a difficult job, pity i didn't do it sooner, but it was still doable.

Agreed 100%. I think any leverage the west has here is economic. Yes, we depend on China, but they depend on us. Western countries should become more self reliant, but there's one more thing we can do, and that is to practice the simple approach or reciprocity. We can't buy property in your country? Fine, you can't do it in ours. You want concessions to build factories? Fine, we want the same. You want your citizens to enjoy the freedoms of our country? Fine, we want our citizens to enjoy those same freedoms in your country. Oh, you would rather not? OK, then we'll treat your citizens in our country like you treat them in your country. How's that? We can track them, search their homes for no reason, imprison them for no reason...

Reciprocity. Why the hell countries don't do this is beyond me.

There's one more thing we can do, and that is to practice the simple approach or reciprocity. We can't buy property in your country? Fine, you can't do it in ours. You want concessions to build factories? Fine, we want the same. You want your citizens to enjoy the freedoms of our country? Fine, we want our citizens to enjoy those same freedoms in your country. Oh, you would rather not? OK, then we'll treat your citizens in our country like you treat them in your country. How's that? We can track them, search their homes for no reason, imprison them for no reason...

Reciprocity. Why the hell countries don't do this is beyond me.

That's something that has bugged me as well. Chinese can (and do) go to Australia and buy cattle-farms the size of a small US state. But try doing that, as a foreigner, in China. Was once called a racist for arguing this point on a forum, but it's a clear case of the scales tipped in favour of a totalitarian country. Why are we doing that?

Opinion polls in the west appear to have been banned - still waiting for a Covid Origin poll - biggest question of our time ... never been polled. Well, i bet it's been polled, but nothing ever published.

Anyway, good to see a poll on what Taiwanese felt about Pelosi's visit.

Easier to copy-past it:
(Taiwan News) — The Aug. 2-3 visit to Taiwan by United States House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was welcomed by 52.9%, according to the results of an opinion poll published Tuesday (Aug. 16).

However, 24% did not welcome her, including a majority of 58% of Kuomintang (KMT) supporters, the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF) survey revealed.

Considering the wave of Chinese missile launches and military drills close to Taiwan which followed Pelosi’s visit, 52.9% said she still should have gone ahead with the trip, while 33.6% said Taipei should have canceled the visit.

An even larger majority of Taiwanese, 78.3%, said they were not afraid of the Chinese maneuvers, even though they included the firing of ballistic missiles over the country. Only 17.2% expressed fear about the drills.

The TPOF survey also found that 39% of respondents saw a war with China in the imminent future as “somewhat likely,” while 53% said it would be “not very likely or totally unlikely.”

Sentiment about the likelihood of the U.S. sending troops to help defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack was more evenly divided, according to the TPOF poll. A total of 47.5% did not believe Washington would intervene, while 44.1% held the opposite opinion.

The TPOF conducted its poll on Aug. 8-9, resulting in 1,035 valid samples with a margin of error at 3.05%.

The last one is interesting. Most Taiwanese think the US will dud them if it comes to war.

Another example showing that corporate MOU billionaires have way more in common with the CCP's totalitarianism than they do with democratic principles.

Musk: My recommendation … would be to figure out a special administrative zone for Taiwan that is reasonably palatable. Probably won’t make everyone happy. And it’s possible, and I think probably, in fact, that they could have an arrangement that’s more lenient than Hong Kong.

Bet it will make Musk happy (his cars are made in China), so who cares about anyone else - or any notions of human rights - or democracy - so long as Musk keeps making billions ...

Musk is such a worm.

And he's an asshole for polluting our night skies with his satellites.

(Taiwan News) — Two Tesla models were handed tax exemptions by Beijing on Monday (Oct. 10), after a report cited the company's CEO Elon Musk as recommending Taiwan should be run along the lines of Hong Kong's "one country two systems" model — and one day after China expressed approval of his plan.

Ok, at least they're transparent!

DPP Spokesperson Huang Tsai-lin (黃彩玲): Musk caters to the threat of the aggressor by sacrificing Taiwan’s independence, completely ignoring the limitless ambitions of authoritarian rulers.

Yep. The implication is that Musk also has limitless ambitions of authoritarian rule.

Time to draw-back from the one-everything maniacs - get back to community living - in an old-fashioned democracy.

Musk is a manipulative, power hungry sociopath.

Not only is he licking Xi's asshole for economic gain, he has also somehow gotten into his head that he has the power to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war by, well, giving up Ukraine. what an asshole.

Interesting developments on US polls:

More Americans worried about Taiwan

Taiwan-China tensions were the third-most concerning issue among Americans, with 82 percent of respondents saying the tensions were “serious” or “very serious.”

The only two more concerning issues for Americans were the partnership between China and Russia (87 percent), and China’s military power (86 percent), the poll found.

Compared with the March survey, the percentage of Americans who said tensions across the Taiwan Strait were a “very serious” concern for their country also rose by 7 percentage points.

So why the 7 percent rise? It can only be because of media coverage. So that 7 percent rise reflects a significant emphasis in the media on potential or likely conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

With public opinion being entirely formed by the media now, one really has to inspect the media and the methods it uses to sway thought. One could argue that the media is the most powerful, what, force? Entity? We don't know because just as we don't elect our international bodies like the IMF and World Bank, we don't elect our media. Shouldn't we have that option?

A lot of interesting stories regarding Taiwan and war have been produced by the media in the last 48 hours. Let's have a look:

Blinken again warns China wants to 'speed up' plan to seize Taiwan

During a talk at Stanford University on Monday (Oct. 17), Blinken said Beijing has made the "fundamental decision that the status quo is no longer acceptable" and China is now pursuing "reunification on a much faster timeline."

US Navy chief says China could invade Taiwan before 2024

The top commander of the U.S. Navy (USN) on Thursday (Oct. 19) said that a fleet must be prepared for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan that could happen at any point before 2024, far earlier than the previously anticipated date of 2027.

These two stories came out within a few days of each other. And we're to believe that they were not coordinated? Of course they were. We're going to get messages now that China could move on Taiwan at any moment; it's imminent, we just don't know when.

So the question then is, just as it appears China is prepping its citizens via these fake covid restrictions, could the US media be preparing its citizens through these fake interviews?

It would make sense if China were to make a move sooner rather than later. Assuming Xi gets his third term, why would he wait until two or three years into that term to make a move? Wouldn't it be to his advantage to start early, having five years to complete his mission? After all, at the end of this third term, he wants at least one of two things: a fourth term or a historically positive legacy.

Plus, he sees what's happening with regards to the world waking up to protecting the Taiwan Strait, and the world is way behind China. China has built it's island bases. Nationalism is at a peak. People are conditioned for hardship. They're primed and ready to go. Why wait? Plus, the world economy is diving. China real estate is plunging. Civil unrest is going to increase. A good old fashioned war would help with that.

The question is, will they take an all out, full on 'shock and awe' approach, or do it in baby steps. I'm guessing large baby steps. Look, they built those fucking islands in the S. China Sea and the world didn't say shit. Well, they didn't do shit, and that's what counts.

I think China is going to creep in like a cat. It's going to establish more footholds. It will use regional blockades that block selected ports, then maybe start with temporary total blockades under the guise of fighting terrorism or such. Maybe, maybe take an outlying island. And the world will slowly begin to accept these infractions as it becomes worn down by war in E. Europe.

And that's a big deal -- the war in Ukraine. It's sapping western reserves and public will. The US is a divided country already; it's actually in a very weak state, weak socially, politically, and economically.

So I think China will take big baby steps, and then at some point, when it is so close to Taiwan that it could deliver it's mail, it will be done. And that could take two years, with the plan being that if they are countered militarily, OK, full on war. But by then, the Chinese will be all for it and the US voters likely tired out by it all as war will likely be going on in some form or another in Europe AND there will be a US presidential election happening.

Could be an interesting decade.

That's a good point about the media - a collection of globalist MOU's with no accountability. Really, with the lies told due to Covid, several MSMs should have lost their licenses - it's an indication of how impregnable they are that such a move would never be considered. Meanwhile MSM happily launches campaign after campaign to ban anyone who disagrees with them.

I think China is going to creep in like a cat. It's going to establish more footholds. It will use regional blockades that block selected ports, then maybe start with temporary total blockades under the guise of fighting terrorism or such. Maybe, maybe take an outlying island. And the world will slowly begin to accept these infractions as it becomes worn down by war in E. Europe.

Yes, that has long been the CCP's strategy - gradual envelopment - so you'd imagine they would continue on that path. The painting of Taiwan as a terrorist state is of course laughable, but quite likely. That's the same reasoning used to explain persecution of Uyghurs & rounding up dissidents in HK. In fact, a staged-terrorism attack would be on the cards if the CCP does get to that point where they're ready for the final solution. They will definitely be looking for something to use as justification.

Speaking of which, this photo is not a terrorism attack - just some drunk guy who accidentally crashed his car into the police station in Taipei. Crashing your car is never good, but crashing through the front door of the cop shop whilst drunk is Olympic-standard dzao-gao.

[image]

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4709252

Big surge in Chinese military activity yesterday involving 71 planes in 'strike drills'. PRC released aerial photos which are supposedly of Taiwan's central range - guess that's meant to send a message.

Anecdotally, a friend in Taiwan tells me that her friends living/working long-term in China are returning to Taiwan.

[image]

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4761905

Big surge in Chinese military activity yesterday involving 71 planes in 'strike drills'. PRC released aerial photos which are supposedly of Taiwan's central range - guess that's meant to send a message.

Well, they have a window for action for the next couple of years.Taiwan is set to launch it's first homemade sub, which won't play well locally in China once it happens. The US seems to be opening floodgates of weapons to Taiwan albeit for a price unlike Ukraine. There's a US election coming up in 2024 that will see either DeSantis or Biden win, and I think DeSantis stands a very good chance of beating Biden. Either one of them will not favor China. China was probably hoping that Trump might stand a chance, but that fool is out. The point is that China sees nothing good on the horizon in the US leadership, and things at home for China aren't going so well. In fact, they're sorta fucked economically, like the rest of the world. They dropped the zero covid policy to avoid social unrest, but that unrest could continue. If it does, pressure to move on Taiwan will increase.

Anecdotally, a friend in Taiwan tells me that her friends living/working long-term in China are returning to Taiwan.

Interesting. I've heard that rich Chinese are leaving in large numbers, and I know a bunch of foreigners got out once they could. Things just seem very unstable in China, and that doesn't bode well for Taiwan.

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