Global food prices surge again, stoking inflation fears

Gains in the past year have been fueled by China’s “unpredictably huge” purchases of foreign grain, and world reserves could hold relatively flat in the coming season, Abbassian said. Summer weather across the Northern Hemisphere will be crucial to determine if U.S. and European harvests can make up for crop shortfalls elsewhere.

“We are not in the situation we were back in 2008-10 when inventories were really low and a lot of things were going on,” Abbassian said. “However, we are in sort of a borderline. It’s a borderline that needs to be monitored very closely over the next few weeks, because weather is either going to really make it or create really big problems.”

This is already looking like another very bad fire year in the US west, given the ongoing drought. The question, with regards to this story, is what is going to happen in the US plains and in Europe.