Will soaring US crop prices show up on a grocery shelf near you?

This story seems to demonstrate how different forces can converge to impact us all on a very basic level, in this case a negative impact in the form of higher food prices. But there's more to this than just climate change leading to higher prices as the result of bad crops. From the article:

A crop rally in the U.S. is threatening to make essential food commodities dramatically more expensive, and the costs could soon spill over onto grocery store shelves.

Wheat, corn and soybeans, the backbone of much of the world’s diet, are all surging to the highest since 2013 after gains last week had some analysts warning that a speculative bubble was forming.

Bad crop weather in key-producing countries is a major culprit. Dryness in the U.S., Canada and France is hurting wheat plants, as well as corn in Brazil. Rain in Argentina is derailing the soy harvest. Add to that the fears of drought coming to the American Farm Belt this summer.

“The agriculture sector looks very appealing right now and the money is chasing it,” Suderman said.

So there's a double whammy of bad crops and money pouring into the market in part due to this constant money printing. All that money that the central banks are creating has to go somewhere, and it's going into the markets.

I can see this becoming a nasty cycle. The economy is hurt by climate change (or a pandemic). Governments print money in response. That money leads to inflation which ultimately hurts those already stung and those most vulnerable.

So there's a double whammy of bad crops and money pouring into the market in part due to this constant money printing.

I can see this becoming a nasty cycle. The economy is hurt by climate change (or a pandemic). Governments print money in response. That money leads to inflation which ultimately hurts those already stung and those most vulnerable.

It is frightening how fast things are happening - be it climate change, the pandemic, AI, tensions with China...

I've never seen a more volatile situation in my lifetime.

Time to get that block back in the States and start growing your own food? I've always wanted to achieve something close to a self-sufficient existence just coz i thought it would be cool - it's now looking like a practical survival measure.

Btw, i saw moringa (is that the name? The plant you used to grow in Taitung?) for sale at $70 a kilo!

Btw, i saw moringa (is that the name? The plant you used to grow in Taitung?) for sale at $70 a kilo!

I'm assuming that was a kilo of dried moringa, usually sold as a powder, which is still a good price. I think the ratio of fresh to dry is something like 9/1... I may be way off. Regardless, the stuff grows faster and with less (i.e., no) care than anything I've ever seen. It can add a foot of branches a week, easily. You whack down a tree and it just sprouts right back. It's magical. Plus, it's high in protein and loads of nutrients. If I could only grow one thing in a world with food riots, it would probably be moringa.

Global food prices surge again, stoking inflation fears

Gains in the past year have been fueled by China’s “unpredictably huge” purchases of foreign grain, and world reserves could hold relatively flat in the coming season, Abbassian said. Summer weather across the Northern Hemisphere will be crucial to determine if U.S. and European harvests can make up for crop shortfalls elsewhere.

“We are not in the situation we were back in 2008-10 when inventories were really low and a lot of things were going on,” Abbassian said. “However, we are in sort of a borderline. It’s a borderline that needs to be monitored very closely over the next few weeks, because weather is either going to really make it or create really big problems.”

This is already looking like another very bad fire year in the US west, given the ongoing drought. The question, with regards to this story, is what is going to happen in the US plains and in Europe.

This chart is somehow related. I found it on Reddit but couldn't find a source for it. But, the debt amount is correct so I'm assuming the others are. I'd still like to find a source.

It looks like that graph came from Jon Gabriel at freedomworks.org.