2020 will be a hard act to follow but Japan has kicked things off with a snow storm in the Hokuriku region. Hope Dan's not snowed under.

- 8 fatalities so sounds serious

- report says 1000's without power - how do you avoid freezing to death when you don't have power in a snow storm?

We had a four-foot snow drift outside our front door the other day. Losing power is a major fear. We have no fireplace and rely on electric power, so I'm not sure what we would do. The other thing that could knock out power is an earthquake. We have those occasionally in Japan.

C'mon March!

We had a four-foot snow drift outside our front door the other day. Losing power is a major fear. We have no fireplace and rely on electric power, so I'm not sure what we would do. The other thing that could knock out power is an earthquake. We have those occasionally in Japan.

C'mon March!

Bloody Hell! That's a lot of snow! How do you get to work? I guess they've got some system worked out.

In Taiwan the backhoes are all out clearing landslides the second a typhoon passes - stuff that would takes weeks or months to do in Australia - is it something like that there?

Sensing a theme developing here - bit different from the usual.

"At least seven people have died due to the weather - the two latest victims were homeless people in Barcelona.

The temperature plunged to -25C (-13F) in Molina de Aragón and Teruel, in mountains east of Madrid - Spain's coldest night for at least 20 years.

Deep snow left by Storm Filomena has turned to ice, disrupting transport. There has been an extraordinary quantity of snow and ice for Spain, where winters are usually quite mild."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55632791

Bloody Hell! That's a lot of snow! How do you get to work? I guess they've got some system worked out.

In Taiwan the backhoes are all out clearing landslides the second a typhoon passes - stuff that would takes weeks or months to do in Australia - is it something like that there?

Well, first I have to dig my way out to my car. Some of the main roads may be plowed, but for the most part, for whatever reason, Japan doesn't plow snow on most roads. This results in pretty wild driving conditions. Every car sold in this region is 4-wheel drive. Even the cheap, tiny models are 4WD.

Well, first I have to dig my way out to my car. Some of the main roads may be plowed, but for the most part, for whatever reason, Japan doesn't plow snow on most roads. This results in pretty wild driving conditions. Every car sold in this region is 4-wheel drive. Even the cheap, tiny models are 4WD.

Cool! One thing about us humans - we're adaptive to different habitats. You've seen a fair range in one life time. David Attenborough would be impressed.

Nothing like a 7.3 earthquake to commemorate 10 years since the big one.

Given the cluster behaviour we've seen before i wonder if there'll be similar sized jolts in the sequence.

No-one killed amazingly though building damage and utility outages of course.

Hard to capture good earthquake video but this gives a reasonable idea of what it's like:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1360612030806302724

"A winter storm has brought deadly freezing winds, ice and snow to many regions that rarely see such frigid conditions.

In Texas, a surge in demand for electricity has led to widespread power cuts. The crisis was worsened when nearly half the state's wind power generation was knocked out by the storm on Sunday. Wind power is the state's second-largest source of electricity.

The National Weather Service (NWS) said more than 150 million Americans were now under winter storm warnings.

At least 11 deaths have been blamed on the widespread storm."

Power cuts and freezing temps are not two things you want in the same sentence.

Water pressure in Taichung, and Hsinchu and Miaoli counties is to be reduced around the clock, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said yesterday.

In addition, large non-industrial water users will have to cut daily consumption by 20 percent, it said.

“The reservoirs in those regions are now less than 20 percent full,” Minister of Economic Affairs Wang Mei-hua (王美花) said after a meeting at the Central Emergency Operation Center on the nation’s water situation. “We have decided that it is necessary to step up water conservation efforts.”

Less than 20%! That's red light flashing level. What happens if you run out?

Interestingly it's just those north eastern counties.

Minister of Economic Affairs Wang Mei-hua (王美花): This is undoubtedly the most serious drought since 1967. We usually get an average of more than 100mm of spring rain, but so far this year, we only had 20mm.

The latest report says the Deji Reservoir in Taichung is at 10.19 percent of capacity.

Another 7+ one in the same area a few hours ago.

Noticed that earthquake - seems you went out with a bang! No casualties apparently which is a testament to the house design in Japan i guess.

Record rainfall on the NSW coast of Australia - some places getting 700 mil in three days - that's typhoon level. Port Macquarie area was smashed a couple of days ago then Sydney.

There's been this massive band of cloud about 8000km long stretching across Australia from the north west for a week that's dropping rain on the coast - it's a steady stream.

The action has been to the south of us but the forecast is for 100 mil here tomorrow. Looks nasty on the weather map - two lows feeding a torrent of rain in. That's gonna test the creek out.

video of house floating down rive: https://youtu.be/e100L3ykiS0

Floods are going strong. In Taiwan they'd probably call the system a taifeng - it's a couple of low pressures circulating. Because Australia is so flat they've managed to come onshore off the north west coast and make their way 4000 km across deserts to the mountains of the east coast where they're dropping the rain.

Record totals in many places. A few around the 1000mm for the 4-day journey. No lives lost - lots of houses flooded.

Today should be the last day. Action now appears to be south east Qld/northern NSW as well as down around Canberra nearly 2000 km to the south - so it's a big storm.

Surprisingly cool how the Iceland authorities didn't go crazy with restrictions. 50 000 earthquakes gave everyone warning it was going to erupt, which it did. It was later assessed that the size of the eruption was stable enough that it was deemed safe for the public to observe from a (pretty close) distance.

I would love to be there. This drone footage is brilliant.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1374005243390869508

"The cherry blossom season, Japan's traditional sign of spring, has peaked at the earliest date since records began 1,200 years ago, research shows.

The 2021 season in the city of Kyoto peaked on 26 March, according to data collected by Osaka University."

1200 years - which makes our weather diary look pretty humble - but similar theory.

Some strange weather coming out of that region - droughts in north eastern Taiwan - snow storms in northern Japan - warm winter in Kyoto. Be interesting how that plays out in terms of the monsoon and typhoons seasons

Very interesting. They are in full bloom now in this area.

On it goes.

This is gnarly looking system - or band of systems - curling around the top of Australia then feeding rain into the east coast.

It's got flooding potential written all over it.

Forecast is for up to 150 mil for northeast NSW/sth east Qld on Monday - then on for three days at a similar level.

Needless to say, the ground is already saturated.

Here's the 'sub-tropical low' (cyclone) off the coast of Brisbane. The media is going overboard with predictions of doom and up to 500 mm of rain in 48 hrs but i think there's a chance it's gonna remain offshore and veer south east towards NZ. We'll see...

There's been no relief from the drought in north eastern Taiwan - and no significant rain in the forecast.

Meiyu (monsoon) season is approaching (usually early May) so that will be critical. Will the drought end with a bang or will the rains fail and throw Taiwan (further) into a water crisis.

As a densely populated country Taiwan has relied on its usually wet climate to supply its intense water usage - it's a 'just-in-time' style supply chain - but that leaves very little room for error.

Below: Sun Moon Lake - is starting to resemble a Moon scape

Seroja is going where no cyclone of this strength (Cat 3 at landfall - Cat 2 now) has been. It's way south for a cyclone - even Perth will be impacted - never seen that before. Currently crossing the coast near Geraldton - expect to cut a swathe right down to the south coast of Australia - which is insane.

This is similar to many of the northern hemisphere typhoons going far north to Japan last summer.

It looks like the US west coast is shaping up for another disastrous fire season.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/western-u-s-drought-foreshadows-another-intense-fire-season/

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/fuel-moisture-content-California-wildfire-160870...

From the second article:

"It was a beautiful sight, but a team of researchers from San Jose State University's Wildfire Interdisciplinary Research Center — the only wildfire research center in California — noticed something wasn't quite right.

"I was shocked when we went up there because usually in April we have a lot of new growth and old growth, and we didn’t see any new growth on the shrubs," said Craig Clements, a SJSU professor and director of the center. "We weren't seeing any of the lighter colored, bright green new growth sprouting out of the growth. Usually we take clippings of new stems and there weren't any. This has never happened."

The lack of new growth is seriously lowering the amount of moisture in the environment, providing a massive amount of fuel for the upcoming fire season. Things don't look good.

This would be an extreme event if it occurred - which it hasn't - but it's not as far-fetched as it sounds.

I'd heard about the possibility of Jin Shan erupting near Wan Li, now there's talk of Yang Ming Shan, with the discovery of "a magma chamber only 8 kilometers underneath the Datun volcano group".

It's stable, but if it did erupt then it would "directly affect Taipei's Shilin and Beitou districts".

There has long been talk of an 'earthquake season' - people saying they are more likely around the change of seasons from hot to cold - but my understanding was that it was a myth with scientists saying there was no statistical co-relation.

But now there is a new theory that does connect earthquakes with the weather. According to Academia Sinica researchers it's not to do with temperature changes, but rainfall.

TT: More rainfall during summer in Taiwan increases the hydrological loading on fault lines, making them less likely to slide, a team of researchers said.

Hsu Ya-ju (許雅儒), Institute of Earth Sciences: The relationship between seismicity and hydrological loading cycles could provide valuable insights for improved regional hazard assessment.

The implication is that a period of low rainfall should result in more earthquake activity. Given that Taiwan is currently going through a period of historically low precipitation then ... look out!

Not sure why this got marked as spam. Testing to see if it shows now.

The drought in Taiwan was always gonna end with a bang and it arrived yesterday with a torrential meiyu (monsoon rains) event.

367 mm in Taipei city!

There's also a typhoon in the mix - glancing blow to Pingtung/southern Taitung - should be ok elsewhere.

Life's never boring in Taiwan - there's currently a Covid outbreak, floods (breaking a drought), a typhoon, and China flying warplanes around the island threatening to attack.

Just need an earthquake for the complete set.

Hualien is having a swarm - nine earthquakes from 1- 5pm (so far) today. Two biggest were 5 and 5.3 - very close to Hualien city. It's not that unusual in Hualien but you'd be nervous coz you don't know if a pair of 7's are coming.

https://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/

BBC: A wildfire has burned 90% of the village of Lytton that recorded Canada's highest ever temperature - the town was engulfed by a "wall of fire".

The village this week recorded the country's highest ever temperature of 49.6C (121.3F).

49.6C in Canada! Seems extreme weather is carrying on despite Covid. Incredibly California is also looking at another dangerous summer. At least in Australia temps returned to normal after the record breaking summer of 2019-20 but parts of North America look like they've gone to a new level and are staying there.

BBC: Twenty people are missing in central Japan after a huge landslide hit Atami city following heavy rainfall.

This looks horrific - video below of the moment a mudslide tore through Atami in the prefecture of Shizuoka.

Assuming this was from a plum rain event - they seem to be getting more destructive in Japan in recent years.

Reports say up to 800 mm fell over a 72 hour period - things are gonna give at that level.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1411178566553796608

Wow, I'd seen one video of a landslide but a couple of those on Twitter I had not seen before. The occupants of that white van are no doubt thanking their luck... and cleaning their pants.

There was some sort of neighborhood announcement here at 2AM and we couldn't figure out what it was. Apparently, there were evacuations all around us. This article lists landslides, high water, or evacuations in Zushi, Hiratsuka, Yokohama, Chiba and Shizuoka. Those places form a circle around us. Zushi is really close and I work with a few people who live there.

Improper soil accumulation suspected of leading to Japan mudslide

It reads like this illegal soil placement did not just contribute to the deadly landslide, it caused it.

When I first read about this "soil accumulation", I pictured a few little piles of soil, a few dump truck loads. A quick search tells me that a dump truck can hold between 7-14 cubic meters. Let's be generous and call it an even 15.

Local authorities say an estimated 54,000 cubic meters of soil which had been brought to a mountainside by a real estate management firm exacerbated the massive mudslide on July 3 in Atami, Shizuoka Prefecture, resulting in the deaths of nine people confirmed as of Friday.

54,000 cubic meters! That's over, probably well over 3,600 dump truck loads.

For instance, the company had reported in 2009 its plan to pile up soil at the lot to a height of 15 meters, but the actual height of the soil reached some 50 meters shortly before the mudslide occurred, according to the prefectural government.

A 50 meter tall pile of loose soil? 50 meters? That's enormous.

Some 56,000 cubic meters of soil in total, mostly the soil left by the company, collapsed into a nearby river, traveling a distance of about 2 kilometers. Around 130 houses and buildings were destroyed or damaged.

They know it was from the illegally stored soil because --

Koyama, who conducted an on-site investigation on Monday, said in his report that the soil which triggered the mudslide did not include volcanic rocks naturally seen in the area but consisted mainly of small stones mixed with sand, indicating it had been brought in from outside.

He also concluded that as there were no large volcanic rocks found in the disaster-hit areas, the mudslide derived solely from the accumulated soil.

But there's more, as if this could get any worse --

The real estate management firm based in nearby Odawara in Kanagawa Prefecture, which acquired the mountainside lot in 2006, brought in soil exceeding the amount it reported to the local authority and also mixed industrial waste with it, according to the Shizuoka Prefectural Government.

What sort of industrial waste? Could this have been a project not to construct buildings, but to illegally dispose of toxic industrial waste, waste that now covers a town?

This has organized crime written all over it, and corruption. But the main point is, this was not a natural catastrophe. It was man-made.

Improper soil accumulation suspected of leading to Japan mudslide

It reads like this illegal soil placement did not just contribute to the deadly landslide, it caused it.

Wow! That's pretty conclusive. Underlines again that corruption is at the heart of most of humanity's problems. It's heartening at least that Japan Times has reported it.

Although parts of the US are experiencing wildfires, the main theme this year appears to be heavy rain.

In the last week we've had horrific floods in Germany that have take 197 lives so far - many still missing.

Now there's floods in the central China city of Zhengzhou. Looking at the video below i can only imagine the terror those people must have felt - trapped in a train carriage with rising water. From what we can see, they remained incredibly calm under the circumstances.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1417478213316616196

There's still a current threat of a dam wall bursting.

Now there's floods in the central China city of Zhengzhou. Looking at the video below i can only imagine the terror those people must have felt - trapped in a train carriage with rising water. From what we can see, they remained incredibly calm under the circumstances.

The video from Zhengzhou I've seen so far just looks horrific, and to think that we're almost certainly not seeing the worst of it, not by a long shot. Many years ago I was talking with a guy who had recently been in a subway station in China when it started to flood and he started taking pictures of the people up to their necks in water only to be shut down immediately by the cops. No no, that's not what we want people to see.

In this case, it appears the government is actually reporting that some people died in the floods, which leads me to believe that the scale of the event was so large that they have to report something. We'll likely never know the true extent of the tragedy.

These recent events in Germany and China have led me to examine my own location. I think we're good.

This is shaping up as one of the wettest years on record.
Reuters: Maharashtra state is being hit by the heaviest rain in July in four decades, experts say. Downpours lasting several days have severely affected the lives of hundreds of thousands, while major rivers are in danger of bursting their banks.

Extreme monsoon rains have caused 125 fatalities there so far.

Dramatic footage of a rock slide hitting a bridge:

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-india-57964308

That's pretty dramatic video. More like a boulder slide. It appears that bridge was built from steel as well.

In this case, it appears the government is actually reporting that some people died in the floods, which leads me to believe that the scale of the event was so large that they have to report something. We'll likely never know the true extent of the tragedy.

It looks like I spoke too soon. China is indeed censoring reports on this round of floods.

Foreign journalists harassed in China over floods coverage

Reporters confronted in street and accused of ‘smearing China’ amid increasing sensitivity to any negative portrayals of China

Foreign journalists reporting on the aftermath of China’s flooding disaster have faced hostile confrontations in the street and been subjected to “vicious campaigns”, amid increasing nationalistic sensitivity to any negative portrayals of China.

Reporters from the Los Angeles Times and German outlet Deutsche Welle were confronted by an angry crowd in Zhengzhou on Saturday, who filmed and questioned them, and accused them of “rumour mongering” and slandering China. Other journalists have also been targeted, with a specific focus on the BBC.

Yeah, the pics and videos, it didn't look like 13 or 14 deaths. If an active subway floods then that's potentially catastrophic.

Not sure why it's perceived as 'weak' to report actual numbers from a natural disaster - unless there was a fuck-up in terms of warnings and/or shutting down the subway.

You'd want to be a pretty adventurous reporter to be operating in China as a foreigner these days.

Dixie Fire becomes largest single wildfire in California history

And that's saying a lot for a state known for its frequent and enormous fires.

I see it's not far from Paradise - hopefully that should be safe since it burned to the ground a couple of years ago.

Seems like a switch has been permanently flicked in California. Whereas other countries oscillate between drought and floods, mainly floods this year, they seem stuck with this tinder box weather.

BBC: Thousands of tourists and residents have been evacuated from towns north of the Greek capital, Athens, as wildfires spread across the country.

Strong winds and high temperatures are making it difficult to control the blazes, which have killed at least two people, including a firefighter.

Huge clouds of smoke and ash near Athens has meant some people there have also been urged to leave their homes.

This is when it becomes real - big populations affected by fire, smoke, ash.

Temps have been over 40C - it is other worldly - we had it here in 2019.

Forget the year of the flood - 'the year of the polar opposites' - is more accurate.

Europe generally has had a hot dry summer - except Germany which had flash floods.

Asia seems to have been wet mostly. Wet in Australia for over 6 months. Dry West Coast of US. Hardly any Cat-3+ hurricanes/typhoons so far.

SFAIK, there's no La Nina deal going on - though it seems similar to the sort of drought/flood effect that can produce.

Aljazeera: At least 17 people have been killed in flash floods in Turkey’s Black Sea region that have sent water and debris cascading through streets, damaged bridges, and ripped up roads in the second natural disaster to strike the country this month.

The floodwaters brought chaos to northern provinces just as authorities were declaring that some of the wildfires that had raged through southern coastal regions for two weeks had been brought under control.

Talk about extremes ...

by dan @, Friday, September 03, 2021, 16:13 (2 hours, 58 minutes ago)

More than 45 dead after Ida’s remnants blindside Northeast
This appears to be an outside-the-norm storm. Remnants of Ida.

Yeah, 3 inches in an hour in NY City seems to be what did it.

That's 75 mil - a normal afternoon downpour in Taipei during the Monsoon but it's whether places are geared up to cope with it. Most big cities aren't.

The scenes were eerily similar to what happened in China earlier in the year when a subway flooded.

Note: relocated your post - can i get a job as a moderator?

It's now been several years since Taiwan has had a substantial typhoon. I can remember going two seasons without one but not this long. In that time there have been a few going up to Japan and a couple to Philippines but guessing an overall decline.

There seems to be plenty of Hurricanes about - the US has had two big years in a row - but something is going on in the north west pacific.

That was a quick answer to 'where have the typhoons gone?' Two typhoons have since formed in the north west pacific - one is heading to the PPE while the biggere one, Chanthu, looks likely to hit Taiwan somewhere - maybe on Saturday.

Wind gusting up to 140kts - that's over 200kph.

Sometimes the season does just start late - runs through Sep-Oct.

Gusts up to 160 kts now - sustained at 130. That's 240 kph. That's serious wind speed. Track now has it picking the gap and going through to China.

That's the type of storm that could cause real problems in SE Taiwan.

This is looking serious for the south east. At this stage landfall is around Cheng Gong but could easily duck in for a direct hit on Taitung city or Dulan.

Travelling speed is also a slight concern - it's not snail's pace but it's not moving fast either. Not till after landfall.

The other worry is the approach - coming up that angle it's going to feed a lot of rain into Taitung even before it gets there.

That's quite a change in forecast. Indeed, the east coast should be on the lookout... and it's hitting on a weekend. Perhaps drunkenness will squelch the effects of nature.

Yeah... this doesn't look good.

This is high stakes tracking. You look at the radar image you think how the heck is that gonna miss making landfall on the south east coast?

But CWB is usually accurate for 24 hrs. Weather chart - which i can't seem to upload - shows a collection of lows due north forming a weakness in the ridge - hence the track.

Chanthu has an uncanny ability to pick the gaps. If i didn't know better i'd think it was being remote controlled to avoid landfall. Just missed the Philippines north east then went due north - followed the contour of the Taiwan coast up towards Shanghai - is now stalled there just off the coast - then expected to sneak through between Korea and Japan. Supposed to finally make landfall on the mid-north west coast of Japan. Bet they don't get too many typhoons striking there. Of course it will be well-reduced by then but it is feeding rain into Japan from it's outlet as it comes - so could be some heavy falls for Japan's southern regions. https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#5/32.306/130.43/&elem=precipitation24h&con...

As an aside, you could control a typhoon's path if you could create weaknesses in the high-pressure ridge - draw it towards the weakness. So if you could create a low pressure or a cold front then it could be done - but don't know how you'd do that.

I see they've had 395 mil in the last 24 hrs at Kubakowa - on the mid-south east coast of Japan. Probably plenty more where that came from.

https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#5/32.213/134.385/&elem=precipitation24h&co...

Yep, Chanthu changed course from earlier forecasts. I talked with one person who has lived here a while who said this is an unusual path for typhoons that hit Japan. We'll be getting whatever is left of it on Saturday.

Dec 11 (Reuters) - Some 50 people are "likely" to have been killed in a devastating outbreak of tornadoes that ripped through Kentucky and several other U.S. states late Friday and early Saturday.

That's a lot of people killed. Several different tornadoes in the tornado alley states - seems worst in Mayfield Kentucky where one hit a candle factory. Must have been a helluva day.

Made me wonder what's the worst one ever.

Apparently it's 1300 killed in Bangladesh in 1989 - then 747 dead in a US tornado alley event in Mar, 1925 - that travelled a record 325 km!

I always thought tornadoes were a spring or early fall deal - but Dec 11 is winter. Is that normal Dan?

It's not normal at all. Farther south, winter tornadoes happen somewhat more regularly, but this is not normal this far north.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZMAmxP5cgs

It's not normal at all. Farther south, winter tornadoes happen somewhat more regularly, but this is not normal this far north.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZMAmxP5cgs

That's freaky footage. Total devastation. I wonder how much warning they got - if any. Coming at night as well - must have been terrifying.

Not enough to disrupt Bezos's party with his wealthy space tourists apparently, held hours after one of his facilities was struck - killing several employees.

That's freaky footage. Total devastation. I wonder how much warning they got - if any. Coming at night as well - must have been terrifying.

Looking at that footage, it's clear why people in that area build storm shelters or go to the basement in the event of a tornado. There is absolutely no place else to hide.

Not enough to disrupt Bezos's party with his wealthy space tourists apparently, held hours after one of his facilities was struck - killing several employees.

I wonder how many deaths it would take for him to acknowledge the tragedy through actions, not just words. 10? 50? 100? 1000?

BBC: Super typhoon Rai made landfall on the holiday island of Siargao on Thursday, bringing winds of about 195km/h (120mph) and heavy rainfall. So far 12 people are confirmed to have died.

That's big. In rural PPE there are a lot of traditional hut-style houses - not able to cope with that kind of pounding.

The island appeals to young, carefree travellers who want to escape the drudgery of urban life.

Surfers, digital nomads and international tourists all mingle in low-lit, beachside bars. Smoothie bowls and flat whites are readily available.

Sounds like Dulan - except for the young bit maybe.

Looks to still going strong and currently over Palawan - another beautiful rural area that doesn't get too many big typhoons.

Reported deaths are now at 31.

BBC: There are growing concerns for the holiday island of Siargao. Its governor said the island was "totally devastated"

Governor of the neighbouring Dinagat islands, Arlene Bag-ao: The fields and boats of our farmers and fisherfolk have been decimated, we have lost our homes. Walls and roofs were torn and blown off…. We have a dwindling supply of food and water. Electricity and telecommunications are down. This is why we urgently and humbly ask for everyone's help.

That sounds grim. Everything you need to live suddenly wiped out. It will be a test for Philippines's disaster response. Hope they're up to it.

Death toll is now at 112 according to AP - seems likely to keep growing - some areas are only just becoming accessible.

There will be an enormous challenge to provide shelter, food and water to the survivors - God knows how long before power is restored.