Previously we've suggested that a likely trigger scenario would be an incident involving one of Taiwan's islands. Following that logic, the Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙群島) could be the most likely candidate.

1. They are quite far from Taiwan, being 310 km southeast of HK

2. Taiwan, which has 250 coast guards on the island, needs to fly through HK airspace to get there - in fact the island is within HK airspace. That was fine before the CCP crackdown on HK, but it's not now.

3. They would be a sitting duck for the PLA to invade

4. There would be questions in the US and Taiwan about whether it was worth going to the trouble of defending

Interestingly, TT reported today that a recent UNI Air supply flight chartered by the military was refused permission to fly through HK airspace to get there due to "dangerous activities" being conducted in the area.

No information was given as to what these activities were or when they might end. Taipei is saying there are no dangerous activities that would prevent safe passage.

Is this the beginning of a blockade of the island?