When this all started, it struck me that there was an increased chance of China actually making a move on Taiwan, either militarily in the form of a blockade or in a softer manner, and indeed there was, and I think still is, an increase in excursions of both Chinese and US military around Taiwan.

The US military is certainly in a weakened state, and with all the attention on the virus, and Americans generally not knowing or caring where or what Taiwan is in the best of times, China must be weighing its options.

So I still think it's a remote possibility that China might try to further clip the wings of Taiwan during this period, just as they're doing with the HK democracy movement. Nobody is watching, and the US certainly doesn't have the political will right now to do anything but take care of itself.

Also, the economy in China is tanking, like everywhere else. Sooner or later, this is going to cause an increase in political pressure on Chinese leadership, and a nifty little conflict would go great lengths to refocusing that anger and rebuilding nationalism. I can see a false flag event in the Strait, Chinese fishing vessels being sunk or, even more convenient, military vessels or aircraft damaged or soldiers killed. That would be enough for China to call for a blockade on Taiwan, for the protection of Taiwanese of course.

I don't think all of that will happen, but it's certainly more likely now than before the virus started.