"Again, i'd question the thinking of climate change as being 1.5C warmer by whatever year. The way it seems to be working is that it's 6C above right now. It's more about when it cranks up than the overall mean temp. At 6 C above for an extended period, stuff starts to give. "

Good point. Extreme events are what we will experience, not the mean increase over time, and those extremes will, I think, have unforeseen knock-off effects, not only natural but also social and political.

I just talked with my mom in Ohio this morning, literally on the other side of the world, and she is reporting the same thing we're experiencing here -- a very mild winter. This is not extreme, but it begs the question of what next summer is going to be like. I guess we'll find out!