Earthquake Watch - Taiwan - Formosahut forum

Given that we can expect little to no guidance from the Taiwanese experts, earthquake prediction has become a DIY activity here, so this is to keep an eye on possible triggered shock zones following the earthquake swarm in Hualien

There are historical precedents of triggered sequences which suggest something could happen in the coming weeks, with the Rift Valley in Taidong being the likely location - so it makes sense to monitor activity in Taiwan for any signs of a pattern of foreshocks

Exhibit A is this one. Quite close to where the Chihshang shock occurred in the aftermath of the 1951 sequence and also the site of a cluster of quakes on Jan 1, which suggests the area is already unstable

If there was to be another major event, my money would be on somewhere around this location

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This rattled Taidong this morning - wave like motion which suggested it was some distance away - which was lucky coz I've got a huge hangover so I couldn't be arsed getting out of bed - but bigger here than what we felt for the Hualien quake

Interestingly no aftershocks so far - nor were there any for the 5M in Ilan a couple of days ago

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The thought of a major earthquake happening during a horrible hangover has crossed my mind. Having to evacuate on a hangover would just suck.

Following on from an earlier discussion, here's an interesting article on CWB's effort to control the information relating to earthquake warnings, specifically in the face of the mounting public pressure they faced to release data from the Magnetic Anomaly Signal map (which was subsequently released)

According to the head of CWB, Lin Po-yu:

"The Meteorological Act stipulates that the Bureau is the only agency authorized to publicly forecast or issue alerts on weather, earthquakes or marine weather, Lin said, adding that weather forecasting agencies in the military and Civil Aeronautics Administration are exempt,

As such, people who use observation data to make predictions about earthquakes could face a fine of NT$200,000 to NT$1 million (US$6,839 to US$34,194), Lin said."

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2018/02/22/2003688035

5.2 overnight in Ilan - the second 5M in that area in the last week - which marks it as the most post-Hualien active site in terms of 5M's

Residents of Ilan (and Taipei and Hualien) would do well to be on alert tonight and the coming few days

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Another strong contender is this site, out to sea from the border of Hualien and Taidong - the same site as a 5M a few days ago

In fact this and the Ilan location appear to be playing pingpong at the moment

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Very small quake but interesting location - right in Taipei city - not sure I've ever seen an earthquake centred there

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There has been an upsurge in earthquakes in southern Taidong in the last couple of days - five quakes around the 4M mark - the largest being the most recent one at 4.5

Occurring in a spot where I haven't seen quakes before - just off the coast near the border of Taidong and Pingdong

Another 4.6 at the same site in south-east Taidong yesterday - definitely something going on there - would be feeling a bit nervous if I was living in the Dawu area

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This is looking increasingly similar to the run up to the Hualian quake.

Another cluster of earthquakes today - this time very close to Taidong city. Although the biggest was only 4.6, they are all very shallow and would be causing some frayed nerves at the very least

Interesting scattergun pattern for earthquakes recently - normally they are concentrated around a particular hotspot but in the last 24 hours there have been earthquakes in five different counties

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Very interesting indeed. In fact I don't remember seeing anything quite like it. There was some activity over the last 3 weeks or so along that fault that runs south of Taiwan to the Philippines. That's sort of an under appreciated zone of activity.

There was another quake along that fault that runs south of Taiwan. This is the same area that had large earthquakes in 96 or so, one of which severed a major undersea communications cable and knocked out internet to much of Hong Kong for weeks.

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There definitely seems to be a connection between quakes just south of Orchid Island and quakes just north of Taidong city, but the one you're referring to is more to the west? Almost due south of Taiwan? Is that the the Manilla Trench - famously rarely active but believed to potentially have an 8 or even 9M in it?

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