As typhoon forecasters, 'wishful thinking' is probably not supposed to enter into it, and that might be clouding our judgement slightly. As it stands, we are the outliest 'outliers' out there. However, on the other hand, the experts are predicting it to follow an almost identical path to nesat, and i haven't seen too many follow exactly the same path within the space of a few days and there is still a chance that a weakness could form in the ridge above taiwan, though that does seem to have receded somewhat.
One problem that i have encountered with trying to use the pressure charts to make predictions is that there appears to be large discrepancies between different charts (the weakness that was on the CWB one was not evident on the JMA one), and even the same agency will have major differences from one chart to the next. How do they draw these things up anyway, do you know?