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Hualien-Taidong Leaping Triggered Earthquake Sequence (General)

by dulan drift, Wednesday, February 07, 2018, 20:14 (12 days ago)

Just read a paper on the 'Leaping Triggered Earthquake Sequence of 1951' - it's a bit worrying

If the current situation was to follow a similar pattern then we can expect:

1. Two more big quakes in Hualien within the next few days - possibly even bigger than we've so far seen
2. A 6M earthquake around Dong He-Cheng Gong anytime from now to one month's time (it occurred a month later in 1951 but other examples from around the world suggest it can happen much sooner or later as well)
3. A 7+ in Yuli after that
4. A 5-6M near Taidong city after that

The interesting thing is that although all these earthquakes are triggered by the Hualien event, they don't follow a spatial sequence, that is, the second distinct fault line rupture occurred further away from the initial event than the third one. In other words it leapfrogged the closer fault line site

This is explained by the site of the second event having a higher pre-existing background level of seismic activity than the third one

Given the New Year's Day upsurge in activity that we witnessed here occurred roughly between Dulan and Taidong city, then that would make it a prime candidate for the next rupture given it's already shown a high level of background activity

Furthermore, apart from the 1951 event, there was another example in 1986 of a 7M quake in Hualien triggering a similar pattern of events down the east coast


http://web.cc.ntnu.edu.tw/~katepili/papers/Chen_JGR_2008.pdf


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