looks like it's pretty much finished here now - just some light rain in the back half - though 1000mm in the mountains - that should mean a good driftwood delivery.

I see JTWC finally corrected their mistake, but it took them a long, long time - a serious dropping of the ball there i would have thought.

the eye passed right over us - blue skies a bit of sun, the whle bit.

rain has stopped and wind has switched to south west.

going out for a drive to check on my favourite hotel.

I see one place in Taidong had 122mm in the last hour!

It's not as intense as that here but we're probably close to 200mm since last night.

wind is coming from the east but not really a factor at this point.

typhoon has made very slow progress overnight, which is the nightmare scenario. and appears to have strengthened to form a complete eyewall of rain. considering there's all that to get through, and then the tail as well, it's a case of hang onto your hats - and your houses.

no real wind to speak of yet.

Still a fairly large degree of separation between CWB and JTWC, the latter having it going directly through kaohsiung.

It's pretty small and it remains to be seen how much rain it's carrying, but it's an unusual direction for a typhoon to approach. In theory, with the rotation of the rain bands, it could be a bit of a reverse of fanapi and marokot with a lot of the rain ending up on the east coast, but like i said, nothing much yet. will be watching the rainfall to the south of us to see what it's packing.

It's just starting to roll in in Kaohsiung, though we haven't had any heavy rain or wind yet, just sprinkles and very, very humid, dense atmosphere. Kaohsiung City has a lot of flood prone neighborhoods, being a massive port city. If I lived in one, I'd be packing my bags and checking in to a hotel.

just started raining here in earnest and i still think the signs are that this could be a massive rain event typhoon. coming up from the south, the whole system, including the brunt and the outflow (which is mostly equatorial)will work over wherever it hits.when a typhoon comes from side on, you just get one or the other, but this will be both barrels. if it stalls near here, which is a distinct possibility.then it could be catastrophic.

B. THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE NORTHWEST, AND THROUGH NORTHERN LUZON, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STR TO THE EAST. A RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND WEAKEN, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO
THE NORTH AS THE STR TO THE EAST REORIENTS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48. DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN LUZON AND THE EASTERN SPINE OF TAIWAN, THE
INTENSITY OF FUNG-WONG IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH THIS TIME. HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 48, MODELS DEPICT THREE
SCENARIOS. THE FIRST, AND LEAST LIKELY, SCENARIO HAS THE SYSTEM
STRAIGHT-RUNNING TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD REQUIRE THE RIDGE OVER
CHINA TO REBUILD AND EXTEND ACROSS TAIWAN INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA.
BASED ON A 181200Z 500MB ANALYSIS, THE RIDGE HAS ALREADY BEGUN
RETREATING, MAKING THIS SITUATION, FAVORED BY GFDN, VERY UNLIKELY.
THE NAVGEM, HWRF AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION SHOW THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAIWAN AND SLOWING DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY, TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN EAST CHINA SEA THROUGH TAU
72. THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS THE REBUILDING
AND REORIENTING STR TO THE EAST, WHICH WOULD BECOME ELONGATED NORTH
TO SOUTH. WHILE THE JENS, JGSM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR, THEY
CARRY TS 16W TO THE NORTHEAST BEYOND TAU 48 AND RECURVE THE SYSTEM
AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE STR, WHICH IS NOT PREDICTED TO EXTEND
AS FAR NORTH-SOUTH. ALL SOLUTIONS TAKE FUNG-WONG FARTHER WEST OF THE
RYUKYU ISLANDS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DUE TO THIS TRIFURCATION
IN THE FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
BEYOND TAU 48.

C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, MODELS DEPICT THREE SEPARATE SCENARIOS
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WITH THE WESTERN SCENARIO RUNNING THE SYSTEM
INTO CHINA, THE NORTHERN OFF THE COAST OF SHANGHAI AND THE FINAL
POSSIBILITY OF A RECURVE TAKING THE SYSTEM JUST SHORT OF THE KYUSHU
COAST. THE MAJOR FACTOR IN THE EXTENDED TAUS IS THE LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL JET AND THE STR TO THE EAST. MODELS AGREE ON A SLIGHT
BREAK IN THE PERSISTENT JET FEATURE AROUND TAU 120. WITH REGARD TO
THE STR, THE NAVGEM SOLUTION HAS 16W TRACKING TO THE NORTH AND
BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IN
CONTRAST, THE JAPANESE MODELS DEPICT FUNG-WONG TURNING AROUND A
WEAKER STR INTO THE WESTERLIES AROUND TAU 96 AND STARTING TO BECOME
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SPLIT BETWEEN THESE TWO MODEL SCENARIOS,
SLOWING THE TRACK SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IN THE LATER TAUS.
SIGNIFICANTLY, BUT CONTINUING THE TREND OF THE SYSTEM TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST UNDER THE WESTERLIES AND NORTH OF THE STR TO THE EAST. DUE
TO THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE TRACK IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST

This might be interesting. I'd better go get a swim in today while I can. If this thing starts moving slowly once it starts turning, we could be in for a deluge.