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<title>Formosahut forum - Something Big Brewing? - Usagi</title>
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<description>Living in Taiwan</description>
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<title>Something Big Brewing? - Usagi (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This radar image is a bit alarming. Puts us right in the firing line of a lot of rain.<br />
We could be the hardest hit of anywhere over the next 12 hours.</p>
<p> <img src="https://formosahut.com/forum/images/uploaded/20130921174414523ddaee79722.jpg" alt="[image]" width="600" height="600" /></p>
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<link>https://formosahut.com/forum/index.php?id=839</link>
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<pubDate>Sat, 21 Sep 2013 17:47:15 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Weather</category><dc:creator>dulan drift</dc:creator>
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<title>Something Big Brewing? - Usagi (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Looks like a strong outflow is developing up the coast - we could be in for a wild night of rain yet. 500 plus mil in pingdong, but big falls all along the east coast right up to Ilan. 179 mm in the rain guage here until 9pm. By contrast, Taijhong has remained dry.</p>
<p>Seems to be moving at a pretty slow pace and definitely has the potential to cause landslides in pingdong, and even here if this keeps up all night.</p>
<p>Wind is still going in fits and bursts, but rain has become more sustained in last few hours.<br />
<img src="https://formosahut.com/forum/images/uploaded/20130921130918523d9a7e21657.jpg" alt="[image]" width="600" height="600" /></p>
<p>Rainfall. Interesting that the highest totals come from different pockets in different counties stretching all the way from pingdong to illan.<br />
<img src="https://formosahut.com/forum/images/uploaded/20130921132752523d9ed8b8aef.jpg" alt="[image]" width="400" height="400" /></p>
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<link>https://formosahut.com/forum/index.php?id=838</link>
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<pubDate>Sat, 21 Sep 2013 13:18:05 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Weather</category><dc:creator>dulan drift</dc:creator>
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<title>Something Big Brewing? - Usagi (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wild wind and rain, but not as bad as the typhoon last year. Probably gusting up around the 100kph mark and intermitent downpours. Not enough to do too much damage so far. Took a drive down south to check things out and was amazed to find that the Chinese tourists were still filing into Water Running Up, though the road leading up to it was out and had become a river of stones. Could be renamed Stones Running Down. </p>
<p>A far better tourist attraction was a roadside stop a bit further south. Enormous, awe inspiring waves - like having a front row seat in a 3D disaster movie. Was the only one there this morning, but when i returned with a couple of tourists i&#039;d met earlier, there were 4-5 cars there. Think i will go back again and open a Chinese sausage stand.</p>
<p>Checked out Miramar - waves were crashing up against the swimming pool but not going through the hotel when i was there, which was 9am, high tide. However, there did seem to be significant erosion taking place in front of the hotel and i suspect it is gonna have a kind of teetering look when the water recedes.</p>
<p>Most dangerous place in Taiwan would seem to be the southern tip of the east coast. Radar has that getting pummeled with virtual eye-wall wind and rain at the moment. Would expect some serious damage reports coming out of kending area.<br />
<img src="https://formosahut.com/forum/images/uploaded/20130921082927523d58e74e8ce.jpg" alt="[image]" width="600" height="600" /></p>
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<link>https://formosahut.com/forum/index.php?id=837</link>
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<pubDate>Sat, 21 Sep 2013 08:30:56 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Weather</category><dc:creator>dulan drift</dc:creator>
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<title>Something Big Brewing? - Usagi (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, the JTWC has high confidence in the track, but this system doesn&#039;t. See <a href="http://www.cyclocane.com/usagi-spaghetti-models/.">http://www.cyclocane.com/usagi-spaghetti-models/.</a> It changes hourly.</p>
<p><img src="https://formosahut.com/forum/images/uploaded/20130920080810523c026a74fd7.png" alt="[image]" width="915" height="450" /></p>
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<link>https://formosahut.com/forum/index.php?id=836</link>
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<pubDate>Fri, 20 Sep 2013 08:08:21 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Weather</category><dc:creator>dan</dc:creator>
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<title>Something Big Brewing? - Usagi (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Very cool comparison. Those sat shots look amazingly similar.</p>
<p>Usagi now has sustained winds of up to 140 knots. Guess I&#039;ll put the lawn chairs away... and the washing machine.</p>
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<link>https://formosahut.com/forum/index.php?id=835</link>
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<pubDate>Thu, 19 Sep 2013 23:29:25 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Weather</category><dc:creator>dan</dc:creator>
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<title>Something Big Brewing? - Usagi (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&quot;Super typhoon Megi was threatening TW for over a week, without actually coming here. Went through northern PPE as cat 5, stalled on other side, then went up TW strait in weakened form and finally made a second landfall in China as cat 1-2.</p>
<p>In SC, the big rain came on the Sat night, <strong>Oct 16</strong>, just before it entered PPE. Torrential rain for 5-6 hours – about 200 ml. <br />
Five days later, as the typhoon was stalled between PPE and China, Ilan was clobbered with 947 ml of rain in a day, 2500ml + over that five day period. This was caused by broken off blobs from the typhoon colliding with the north east monsoon resulting in torrential downpours. This is probably what they mean when they say autumn typhoons are the most dangerous.</p>
<p>Previously I had thought the dbjf to be a typhoon killer, due to the cross winds interfering with its structure, but it seems an interaction with the outer bands can also cause tremendous rainfall.</p>
<p>Not surprisingly, the Su-Ao to Hualien highway was a total disaster zone – two buses went over the edge and 450 people were stranded. So far 25 people are confirmed dead.&quot;</p>
<p>This current typhoon bears some similarities to Megi, a massive late season typhoon from 2010. The scary bit is that Usagi is a lot closer! On the positive side, it doesn&#039;t have that wicked poleward outflow that Megi had.<br />
Megi<br />
<img src="https://formosahut.com/forum/images/uploaded/20130919160609523b20f1b75c0.jpg" alt="[image]" width="400" height="430" /><br />
Usagi<br />
<img src="https://formosahut.com/forum/images/uploaded/20130919160930523b21bad52b7.jpg" alt="[image]" width="400" height="430" /></p>
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<link>https://formosahut.com/forum/index.php?id=834</link>
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<pubDate>Thu, 19 Sep 2013 16:16:16 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Weather</category><dc:creator>dulan drift</dc:creator>
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<title>Something Big Brewing? - Usagi (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Now JTWC is wavering back to the north. They&#039;re swinging like a pendulum the last couple of days. </p>
<p>And maximum gusts of 170 kts! 315kph!!!! That&#039;s like a massive tornado.</p>
<p><img src="https://formosahut.com/forum/images/uploaded/20130919134627523b0033ec45e.gif" alt="[image]" width="920" height="607" /></p>
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<pubDate>Thu, 19 Sep 2013 13:47:59 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Weather</category><dc:creator>dulan drift</dc:creator>
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<title>Something Big Brewing? - Usagi (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yeah, and just noticed more disparity in the latest set of models. There does seem to be a cold front that has breached the high, which in theory should creat a weakness in the ridge and allow the typhoon to move more northward. <br />
<img src="https://formosahut.com/forum/images/uploaded/20130919132509523afb35b0c13.png" alt="[image]" width="520" height="460" /></p>
<p>And there&#039;s another one coming through just behind this!<br />
<img src="https://formosahut.com/forum/images/uploaded/20130919132631523afb875f0a4.jpg" alt="[image]" width="630" height="480" /></p>
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<pubDate>Thu, 19 Sep 2013 13:27:20 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Weather</category><dc:creator>dulan drift</dc:creator>
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<title>Something Big Brewing? - Usagi (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Even though the models are moving farther south, the JTWC says in it&#039;s prognosis that, &quot;OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS THE STR CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND RE-ORIENT ITSELF.&quot;</p>
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<pubDate>Thu, 19 Sep 2013 06:15:15 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Weather</category><dc:creator>dan</dc:creator>
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<title>Something Big Brewing? - Usagi (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yeah, and CWB was just lagging - they have moved their track south as well in line with the others. Still looks like we are going to get plenty to go on with.</p>
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<pubDate>Thu, 19 Sep 2013 01:29:42 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Weather</category><dc:creator>dulan drift</dc:creator>
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<title>Something Big Brewing? - Usagi (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I was looking at <a href="http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/?name=USAGI,">http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/?name=USAGI,</a> but models seem to have shifted south since yesterday evening. We got hammered here last night by &#039;the blob&#039;. If that&#039;s any indication of things to come, I need to do some waterproofing.</p>
<p><img src="https://formosahut.com/forum/images/uploaded/20130918231458523a33f2a4967.png" alt="[image]" width="534" height="449" /></p>
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<pubDate>Wed, 18 Sep 2013 23:15:03 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Weather</category><dc:creator>dan</dc:creator>
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<title>Something Big Brewing? - Usagi (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dan, i just checked the forecast model site that i use and although one has branched back to Taiwan, the rest are still solidly agreeing on the more southerly track. Where did you get your info from?<br />
<img src="https://formosahut.com/forum/images/uploaded/201309181443275239bc0fa4911.png" alt="[image]" width="520" height="460" /></p>
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<pubDate>Wed, 18 Sep 2013 14:43:39 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Weather</category><dc:creator>dulan drift</dc:creator>
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<title>Something Big Brewing? (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Then well done CWB. they were the only ones who had it coming here 5 hours ago. That &#039;escaped blob&#039; has exploded on the north east coast. It&#039;s like an opening salvo and shows that this typhoon is carrying massive rain. <br />
Lots of thunder and lightning here, but no real rain so far, thoug looks eminent. But what a place! Out drinking with the Amis real estate lao ban celebrating the buying of the business, hot, sweaty, beers, singing, lightning everywhere, long rolling thunder, full moon, huge typhoon lurking out to sea ...  very Taiwan.</p>
<p><br />
Radar:<br />
<img src="https://formosahut.com/forum/images/uploaded/201309181422425239b7325340b.jpg" alt="[image]" width="600" height="600" /></p>
<p>Rainfall so far today:<br />
<img src="https://formosahut.com/forum/images/uploaded/201309181433445239b9c824065.jpg" alt="[image]" width="400" height="400" /></p>
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<pubDate>Wed, 18 Sep 2013 14:33:59 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Weather</category><dc:creator>dulan drift</dc:creator>
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<title>Something Big Brewing? (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes but the consensus has it moving closer to the southern tip of Taiwan than it did 48 hours ago. Whereas the earlier model spread had it going anywhere from just south of Taitung city to way off the southern tip of Taiwan, they are all now sending it here to our southern peninsula. We&#039;re in for a storm.</p>
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<pubDate>Wed, 18 Sep 2013 12:37:29 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Weather</category><dc:creator>dan</dc:creator>
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<title>Something Big Brewing? (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>General consensus of tracks now has it going south of Taiwan, so we can probably dial back the alarm a little bit. however, CWB is the odd one out. Whereas it previously had it going south, it has now changed to having it hit southern taiwan. Not sure if that&#039;s just coz it&#039;s slow to catch on or they have some other reasoning.</p>
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<pubDate>Wed, 18 Sep 2013 10:06:49 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Weather</category><dc:creator>dulan drift</dc:creator>
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<title>Something Big Brewing? (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is an escaped blob of typhoon which is impacting the north east and may give us some rain later as well. Looking at the precipitation graphic it could dump well over 100mil by itself and possibly even close the Su Hwa.</p>
<p>Last night around 11pm the wind switched to the west briefly and came roaring down off the mountains - some seriously strong porch clearing gusts - but didn&#039;t last long.</p>
<p>Latest JTWC has lowered the track back the southern tip of taiwan, but upped the wind speed again to 130 kts (241 kph!). This could go all the way to a cat 4 or even 5.</p>
<p><img src="https://formosahut.com/forum/images/uploaded/20130918014111523904b7a6a1d.jpg" alt="[image]" width="600" height="600" /></p>
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<pubDate>Wed, 18 Sep 2013 01:43:58 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Weather</category><dc:creator>dulan drift</dc:creator>
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<title>Something Big Brewing? (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Good questions about tides. I don&#039;t know really. I assume a high tide is a one-day event, but that the tides on either side of that day are higher than usual. I may be wrong. I also just read that there is no such thing as a tidal surge, only a storm surge. A high tide is a high tide, but it&#039;s higher during a full moon, and even higher when that full moon coincides with an equinox. So throwing a storm surge on top of that mix would seem to intensify things still. But perhaps that couple of days difference between the full moon and equinox is enough to make any complementary effect minimal. I guess we&#039;ll find out!</p>
<p>Yes, this is looking more ominous with every passing hour. I have to work all day tomorrow so Thursday will be preparation day. I suspect we&#039;ll be getting something by then.</p>
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<pubDate>Tue, 17 Sep 2013 12:26:34 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Weather</category><dc:creator>dan</dc:creator>
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<title>Something Big Brewing? (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Better get down to the Miramar hotel and get ready with my camera! </p>
<p>Looks like things will start on Friday night and peak sat morning, which is the 21st. Is a king tide a one day thing or is it high for a period around that? Does it also correspond with an extra low tide, or is low tide higher than normal as well? </p>
<p>Latest JTWC track has moved closer towards us, now making landfall in southern taiwan. Wind speed forecast has jumped to 115kts, which is 213kph! Hang onto your hat - and your roof. But the greatest threat still comes from the rain. If it holds that path, and it probably will, more-or-less, then this is now a full bunker down preparation typhoon. </p>
<p>The chickens and i make a good team - i dug out the drains today to try and prevent their shed from being washed away - they gleefully did their best to scratch in the fresh dirt and fill them in again. </p>
<p><img src="https://formosahut.com/forum/images/uploaded/201309171200455238446dedaee.gif" alt="[image]" width="920" height="596" /></p>
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<pubDate>Tue, 17 Sep 2013 11:58:10 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Weather</category><dc:creator>dulan drift</dc:creator>
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<title>Something Big Brewing? (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I just realized this will be hitting during the full moon, and the full moon that I believe is happening at the fall equinox. I believe, though I need to verify, that full moons on an equinox create even greater tidal surges. Is that right? </p>
<p>The Moon Festival takes place during the full moon of the equinox, right? Yes, just verified. Full moon is on the 19th, Moon Festival day, and the equinox is on Sept. 23rd. </p>
<p>UPDATE: Yes, I&#039;ve been doing some searches, and apparently a full moon during an equinox can produce some extraordinary tides. Now we have a full moon, an equinox, and a typhoon. Granted, the full moon isn&#039;t happening on the exact day of the equinox, but they&#039;re pretty darn close, with the typhoon sandwiched right in between.</p>
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<pubDate>Tue, 17 Sep 2013 11:22:54 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Weather</category><dc:creator>dan</dc:creator>
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<title>Something Big Brewing? (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes I agree. I&#039;m mostly worried about that phone pole that looks like it might fall down if as much as a sparrow flies into it. We&#039;re going to have the gate open, car situated ready for an escape, and bags packed.</p>
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<pubDate>Tue, 17 Sep 2013 04:14:06 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Weather</category><dc:creator>dan</dc:creator>
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