Formosahut forum - Kong Rei

Kong Rei (reply)

dan — Fri, 30 Aug 2013 23:50:37 +0000

I remember such rain in Pingtung. This happened every year whether during plum rain season or later in the summer.

Kong Rei (reply)

dulan drift — Fri, 30 Aug 2013 21:44:08 +0000

1000 plus mil in two days for your old stomping ground. I'm afraid that's gonna cause some serious flooding and landslides. The frightening thing is that there looks to be still plenty more to come.
No rain warning for taidong, but i've got a feeling there should be - seems like the stream has moved slightly to the east and is starting to feed into us.

Meanwhile, low to the east of us looks to have dissipated, which would seem strange - almost everything forming there turns into a typhoon at this time of year - but may fire up again.

Kong Rei (reply)

dulan drift — Fri, 30 Aug 2013 04:26:30 +0000

Over 800 mil in Pingdong since yesterday - that's serious landslide territory.

Kong Rei (reply)

dulan drift — Thu, 29 Aug 2013 14:28:14 +0000

Hell! Looks like all roads lead to Taiwan.

Went to the A-tsai memorial out at Dulan Bi and strangely the weather couldn't have been better. Wild wind, whitecaps, and dramatic skies - and no rain.

Kong Rei (reply)

dan — Thu, 29 Aug 2013 09:20:38 +0000

We had big gusts of wind south of Taitung on the way to Zhiben this morning, then calm all day, but with showers. I hit the hot springs. It looks like there's a lot of weather out there. A low SW of Taiwan heading our way, sure to give Kaoshiung, Pingtung, and Tainan counties more grief. Then another low west of the Philippines also headed this way. It's going to be an interesting late August, early September. The next 24 hours does not look good for the west coast.

Kong Rei (reply)

dulan drift — Thu, 29 Aug 2013 05:37:20 +0000

Suddenly getting some big south-westerly gusts coming through. Estimate around 70-80 kph. Also quite warm wind. I'm starting to wonder if the eye is really where they say it is.

Kong Rei (reply)

dulan drift — Thu, 29 Aug 2013 02:57:14 +0000

This is one of those cases where the rain doesn't correspond to where the eye is, which has the potential to catch people off guard. The eye is north of Taipei already and moving further away but the rain is pounding the south west coast. Some places (pingdong are already over 500 and look to be heading to 1000, which is a castrophic amount of rain.
Meanwhile on the east coast the eye passed not too far to the east of us without bringing any rain - has only really started once the winds changed to the south. Nothing torrential as yet, but looks like it will go all day.

Kong Rei (reply)

dulan drift — Wed, 28 Aug 2013 01:35:15 +0000

There's been a bit of shift west with the models overnight - it's kind of a tricky one to predict. If it comes in any closer it could be a devastating rain - if it hangs out then it could be nothing.
CWB doesn't have any rain warnings up, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything - they may have forgotten or be just wrong. I would have thought the north east coast would be under threat at least.

Kong Rei (reply)

dulan drift — Tue, 27 Aug 2013 12:31:01 +0000

Some serious looking clouds out to sea here too, but no rain so far. Might need to clean out the drains and do some prep though, afterall. It's packing some rain and that slow pace... if it did veer here it would be quite a serious thing in terms of landslides.

Kong Rei (reply)

dulan drift — Tue, 27 Aug 2013 12:15:10 +0000

Technically, i'm pretty sure that low is remnants of Trami which has maintained it's low status as it's drifted south across china and is back over open water and could even build again. Now that would be a typhoon for the books.

Kong Rei (reply)

dan — Tue, 27 Aug 2013 11:24:58 +0000

It seems to have slowed down and it looks like that low that was to the west of it is being sucked in. We could be in for a bit of rain. I'm guessing Pingtung County is once again going to get hit hard.

Kong Rei (reply)

dan — Tue, 27 Aug 2013 08:09:54 +0000

Getting increasing scattered clouds here in Zhiben. Definitely something going on. It looks like we could actually get some associated rain out of Kong Rei as early as tonight.

Kong Rei (reply)

dulan drift — Tue, 27 Aug 2013 07:45:50 +0000

Latest forecasts have it hanging further to the east than first predicted, which will lessen its impact on the east coast. The couple of western outliers that had it tracking towards Taiwan have now fallen back in line with the rest and there doesn't seem much chance of a drastic change now. Hopefully still pick up a few showers.

Clear skies and a big easterly here today and although it may be associated with the typhoon, i'm pretty sure it's not typhoon generated wind. This kind of wind a day or two out from typhoon seemed to be common last year, but this is the first one of this season.

Kong Rei (reply)

dulan drift — Mon, 26 Aug 2013 10:38:38 +0000

Although not huge, and not predicted to make it past the tropical storm stage, it still bears watching given its relatively slow pace and proximity to the coast. If it stays as close as forecast, we should be in for some decent rain on Wed night - Thurs. If it gets any closer and slows even more, we could get a real deluge.

This forecast chart is for wed 8pm.

Slow Moving Typhoon for Taidong

dulan drift — Sun, 25 Aug 2013 05:30:49 +0000

This low would seem to be in a prime position to impact Taidong. Furthermore, extended forecast charts have it approaching us at a snail's pace which makes it doubly dangerous. Definitely one to watch in the coming week.