Formosahut forum - Active July

Active July (reply)

dulan drift — Thu, 01 Aug 2013 12:52:11 +0000

That's interesting. i'd assumed it was just outflow from the other low. Never really seen a typhoon form that close to Taiwan but it should be theoretically possible.

Active July (reply)

dan — Thu, 01 Aug 2013 09:26:33 +0000

What an unusual situation:

From http://site25.net/storms/abpwweb.txt:

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5N
125.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 121.3E, APPROXIMATELY 297 NM SOUTH
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED MUTLISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
010329Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF THE
DEVELOPING LLCC AS WELL AS A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. WEAK AND FRAGMENTED BANDING IS ALSO IDENTIFIED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE NORTHWEST
TRACK INTO LUZON STRAIT APPEARS TO BE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
TROPICAL STORM 09W AND MAY RESULT IN THE DISTURBANCE BEING ABSORBED
BY THE LARGE MONSOON DEPRESSION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL OVER TAIWAN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

Active July (reply)

dulan drift — Thu, 01 Aug 2013 00:05:18 +0000

yeah, right. but it looks like a lock, even though CWB only has it at 40%. could be substantial too, by the looks of it. Sky seems pretty ominous as well.

Active July (reply)

dan — Wed, 31 Jul 2013 23:32:54 +0000

I can't imagine that we're not going to get some of this. In fact if we don't get anything, my entire faith in meteorology and the spherical nature of the earth will be lost.

Active July (reply)

dulan drift — Wed, 31 Jul 2013 08:43:07 +0000

that's a pretty intense radar image - don't see the purple hue too often - stuff all rain here but looks like the central spine is getting hammered.

Active July (reply)

dulan drift — Mon, 29 Jul 2013 08:56:40 +0000

This is the chart for tomorrow (tues) - hopefully we can fluke a few showers out of it by tomorrow afternoon or wed. They are calling it a TD but where it's located on the chart doesn't seem to match up with the sat image.

Active July (reply)

dulan drift — Thu, 25 Jul 2013 13:27:52 +0000

yeah, that looks like a full blown typhoon to me but not causing much of a stir on the weather charts so far.
they had pretty big rains on the west coast last night as well - similar pattern tonight. the weird thing is that CWB has a weather warning for the west coast. but is still sticking with a 10% chance of rain for the same area.

Active July (reply)

dan — Thu, 25 Jul 2013 10:31:29 +0000

It seems strange that this system isn't showing up as a well-defined low on any of the charts and yet there is a heavy rain advisory out for western Taiwan. It looks like we may get some of that as well.

Active July (reply)

dulan drift — Mon, 22 Jul 2013 16:08:34 +0000

interesting little radar image - just a fluke i presume - but it has really balled up in a mini-typhoon style. looks a bit too far south at this stage to affect us.

Active July (reply)

dan — Tue, 16 Jul 2013 23:06:15 +0000

Agreed, and I think the heavy rain could start as early as tonight. I can't believe the CWB hasn't issued some sort of alert. To their credit, they do have an 80% chance of rain today, compared to a 50% chance while we were in the middle of a typhoon.

Active July (reply)

dulan drift — Tue, 16 Jul 2013 22:57:51 +0000

You were right! Woke up at 6.30 to the sound of rain. All that stuff on the sat would seem to be coming our way. Despite no weather warning from CWB, I think we're gonna get an absolute bucketing over the next couple of days. Maybe 200mm or more.

Active July (reply)

dan — Tue, 16 Jul 2013 02:56:49 +0000

Yes it does look like it might affect us. And this sat image looks like it has some serious moisture in it, although these things do sometimes simply disappear.

Active July (reply)

dulan drift — Tue, 16 Jul 2013 02:44:59 +0000

Hell. i had assumed it was just gonna drift west and maybe we would fluke a shower or two, but looks like it's really turning into something and coming this way. All that drain digging i did for the last typ might prove useful afterall.

Active July (reply)

dan — Tue, 16 Jul 2013 00:21:09 +0000

Wed or Thurs sounds about right. The JTWC has it moving through fairly quickly.

Active July (reply)

dulan drift — Mon, 15 Jul 2013 15:38:03 +0000

it's probably not gonna progress out of a low, but the interesting thing is that the outflow bit looks bigger than the actual low at this point - and would seem to be a reasonable chance that we will get it. seems to be a bit of lag time, so maybe wed?

Active July

dulan drift — Sun, 14 Jul 2013 15:06:13 +0000

New low developing just east of ppe.

Would seem to have some poleward thing going on so could bring some rain in a couple of days.