B. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR, TY 07W WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT DIVERGES
THEREAFTER. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 165 NM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT
CPA TO OKINAWA (11/23Z) BUT, IN GENERAL, THE MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. IN PARTICULAR, GFS HAS SHIFTED TO A
MORE WESTWARD SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS: ANALYSIS OF THE GFS
500 MB FIELDS SHOW THAT PASSAGE OF A WEAK MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, CURRENTLY POSITIONED SOUTH OF MONGOLIA, WILL NOT CREATE A
BREAK IN THE STR SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A SHARP RE-CURVATURE NEAR TAU
72. TY 07W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48, TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS, DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO
TWO DISTINCT GROUPS. NAVGEM, GFDN AND UKMET INDICATE A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK ACROSS TAIWAN THEN INTO CHINA WHILE THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE
(JGSM, JENS, GFS, HWRF, COTC, ECMWF AND AEMN) INDICATE A MORE
REALISTIC POLEWARD TURN OVER EASTERN CHINA ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE JTWC TRACK PHILOSOPHY CONTINUES TO FAVOR
THE LATTER GROUP AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE SPLIT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 60. TY 07W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AFTER TAU 60 DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL STR
OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE EAST CHINA SEA. TY 07W WILL MAKE LANDFALL
OVER CHINA AFTER TAU 96 AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH TAU 120.//