Formosahut forum - late late show-bopha

late late show-bopha (reply)

dan — Mon, 10 Dec 2012 02:39:09 +0000

It's also amazing how damaging this storm was. From http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20656846

The number of people missing after Typhoon Bopha struck the southern Philippines has risen to more than 800, with 620 confirmed dead.

The number of missing had risen dramatically because contact was lost with 300 fishermen at sea, Civil Defence chief Benito Ramos said.

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dulan drift — Sun, 09 Dec 2012 01:34:33 +0000

Amazing how quickly it dissipated. I'm sure it was still a full on typhoon when i checked it last night, now it's almost dwindled down to nothing.

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dulan drift — Sat, 08 Dec 2012 14:24:54 +0000

i'd say the west coast of ppe doesn't get hit by typhoons too much, not the full frontal assault anyway, but this one is going to come perilolusly close. Hope they are prepared, but suspect not.

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dulan drift — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 23:49:55 +0000

Started raining about 7am here and by the looks of the sat, we could be in the firing line of bopha's outflow and the track suggests it's going to edge closer over the next couple of days, so we might be in for a wet weekend.
It actually formed a visible eye last night, which is a sign that it has picked up its intensity. i was kind of surpised coz not many typhoons do regain their full strength once they cross ppe - it's obviously pretty resilient.

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dulan drift — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 02:26:37 +0000

Yeah, it's just way too cold for a typhoon - meant to be getting down to 15C on Sun night - that's about as cold it gets here. It might produce a bit of rain on its way out, but i expect it's gonna dissipate in the next couple of days.

Death toll is over 400 in ppe now with another 400 missing. Apparently, even the emergency shelter areas that people had been evacuated to were hit by landslides. You do have to wonder about the preparedness in the ppe - they just got hit by a huge typhoon last year that killed `1000 people - doesn't seem like too many lessons were learned by the authorities.

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dan — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 01:00:58 +0000

I had sort of written this storm off, but it looks like it's going to remain in our neighborhood at least for a couple of days. The Taiwan CWB has it coming in our direction while the JTWC has it heading north then doing a u-turn. I can't imagine it making it very far north.

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dan — Wed, 05 Dec 2012 13:38:11 +0000

And it seems like this second one could be be nasty. If Bopha heads NW as it's expected to, this second one would presumably follow in its path, potentially bringing us more rain. But with the temperatures this low... I don't know what the heck is going on.

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dan — Wed, 05 Dec 2012 13:35:31 +0000

It doesn't seem like our typical dbf here. The winds are coming from all over the place. It just feels like extremely unstable weather.

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dan — Wed, 05 Dec 2012 13:30:01 +0000

I also found it odd that it's been raining like crazy all day and we're given a 50-60% chance of rain.

There's a video of the typhoon in the Philippines at http://is.gd/35KNgr

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dulan drift — Wed, 05 Dec 2012 13:27:18 +0000

appears to be another one in the making also heading for the same area. That's gonna be tough on those who got copped the brunt of the first one.

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dulan drift — Wed, 05 Dec 2012 13:17:52 +0000

that's serious. and how many died in Sandy? bit of a difference in the media coverage.

wind kicked up about 4pm and is blowing pretty well now - but don't know if that's the typh or dbjf. checked temp and it's down to 17C.

CWB still has us on 60% chance of rain. I think it's nice to look at all the models but at some point it would be a good idea for them also to have someone stick their head out the window.

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dan — Wed, 05 Dec 2012 09:58:32 +0000

The last I read over 200 had died in the Philippines. It was their worst storm of the year.

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dulan drift — Wed, 05 Dec 2012 00:16:37 +0000

I think it already is affecting us with the storm adding moisture to the ne monsoon. if it had been another couple of hundred miles furhter north then may have seen some serious rainfall. As it is, presuming it does recurve, we could see some pretty good falls as the outflow stream crosses us - especially if it connects up with a cold front. Heard any reports on the damage done in the ppe?

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dan — Tue, 04 Dec 2012 12:51:09 +0000

It looks like there's at least a 50-50 probability that this storm will affect us. The question remains whether it will be a straight shooter or will double back north, or take a more NW track, or be really indecisive and dilly dally west of the Philippines. Regardless, it's an interesting storm.

This may end up being one for the books for its unpredictability if nothing else.

Latest post-72 forecast from JTWC (emphasis added):
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK VERY SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER WEAK STEERING IN A COL REGION BETWEEN THE STR
LOBES. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS A SECOND MONSOON SURGE
OCCURS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES, AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
INTRUSION SUPPRESSES THE DEEP CONVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SPREAD AFTER THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE EAST CHINA SEA, AND DUE TO THE
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE EXTENDED TAUS TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

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dulan drift — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 13:35:34 +0000

Yeah, it's an interesting one. Normally you don't expect to be discussing the effects of a typhoon on Taiwan in Dec. If it stays south of us and happens to coincide with a coldfront passing across the island we could see some torrential rain on the east coast. Seems to be a decent strength as well.

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dan — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 12:49:52 +0000

This is increasingly looking like it could affect us. It's not going to be a direct hit by any means, but it's taking an unusually NW track, or at least predicted to, for so late in the season.

Given the predicted paths below, the question is, what is it doing to do after Dec. 5? Is it going to be a straight shooter, make a hard turn south, or a hard turn north. Normally this time of year it would turn south or just head straight to Vietnam. But the models all have it heading NW. This is an anomaly of sorts.

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dan — Thu, 29 Nov 2012 11:42:09 +0000

This could turn out to be an entertaining storm.

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dan — Wed, 28 Nov 2012 23:18:28 +0000

It would appear that if it follows its predicted path, the very southern tip of Taiwan will at least feel something. This thing looks like it will have to take sharp turn in one direction or another, most likely southwest.

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dulan drift — Wed, 28 Nov 2012 10:41:13 +0000

Although i am sure it will never get to Taiwan, this typhoon looks like it is heading vaguely in our direction - got a flight back from Aus going almost over the top of it on Friday - must remember to look out the window. Any idea on how high up the disturbance goes - can you fly over it or do you have to go around?