Had the chooks all locked down and put up the tarp across their 'windows', which is my Warning Signal No.3, but decided to let them out for one last forage. Should be taking advantage of this unexpected delay and be out staking more trees - just waiting for the back to loosen up from yesterday's big effort.

The JTWC site has been going down about every half hour, though it seems to be doing better today. I had my sync set up to run every 20 minutes. If it runs when their site is actually down, it ends up empty. I originally set it up because the JTWC site would often be inaccessible from Taiwan for some reason, but still be up in the US, in which case the sync is useful; it is populated. My servers are in the US, so they can access the JTWC sometimes when we can't here. Does that make sense? But the last couple of days the JTWC site has been going down completely, even in the US, which is why the sync hasn't worked.

I mean, we can send a man to the moon, but...

Bit of digression in the ranks this morning. BTW, what's up with the JTWC site? Your mirror thing doesn't seem to be working? And why does JTWC make it so difficult to access their site?

For the first time, we'll be packing typhoon evacuation bags.

Ok, i see what you mean about the same typhoon going in two different directions at the same time. Both are these from CWB, on the same website, showing the same typhoon (Bolaven) going in completely different directions. On ther forecast graphic they have it going south of TW, but on their track graphic, they have it going north of TW. I am assuming the JTWC track is closer to reality - it has Bolaven bending north of Taiwan.

It's interesting how the area of error lessons as it passes over Taiwan. It's as if to say, "It could go north or south a bit before hitting Taiwan, but it's going to zero in on you eventually." We'll see.

According to JTWC prognosis section, they're claiming a 'high degree of confidence' for the track on the grounds that the high is relatively stable, which appears to contradict the graph. I think, but i'm not sure, the error zone is actually a reflection of the season's previous track errors. As such, i'd say we're a very decent chance of getting whacked. Also seems to be edging closer to us with every update. Might be time to start taking this seriously and spend a day preparing.

This is where my understanding of the JTWC prognosis breaks down! "UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A SELF-INDUCED MESO-ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE LLCC..."

Self-induced meso-anticyclone? Is that anything like a bad hangover?

Yeah, i've experienced that self-induced mess after a night out before - but can't remember whether the room was spinning in an anti-cyclonic direction or not.

Self-induced meso-anticyclone? Is that anything like a bad hangover?

This one does look like it has the potential to do some damage, and the one behind it is on track to hit us as well.

This typhoon has the potential to develop into something massive as conditions for development are optimal at this time of year. Anyway, looks like we're in for a bit of action over the next couple of weeks.