In essence, either side could take action on Taiwan on the premise that the other side is about to take control of the chip industry. But here, China would have, oddly, more moral authority because regardless of what you and I and the average Taiwanese thinks, most nations have agreed that there's one China and that Taiwan is sort of kind of part of it but not really but we want your business, China, so OK we'll say whatever you want.

And with the fuckery that the US has pulled in recent months, it wouldn't take much to convince the world that the US is about to mess with Taiwan and make prices around the world go up even more. Trump has handed Xi a blockade pass.

I'm wondering what's holding them back. There would be very little appetite left in America for another war - Trump has used all that capital up - plus laid down a precedent for first-strike invasions ...

The Chinese economy would definitely take a serious hit, so they have to consider that. But at this point, I think the world would give China a pass if it blockaded Taiwan on the premise that it has information that bad actors in the West (i.e., the Trump government) are orchestrating a massive attack of some sort on Taiwan to take over its chip industry. As you point out, the US has demonstrated that it will attack anybody without warning. The US is now a warmongering, pariah country and, as China would argue, we need to protect ourselves and our compatriots in Taiwan.

In fact they could frame it as if they're doing the world a favor. They're taking the bullet by bravely protecting this internationally vital industry from an imperialist aggressor.

Only thing i can think of is China's air defense systems sold to Iran were proven to be not up to snuff, hence the military purge by Xi?

They no doubt have learned a lot from these wars and made appropriate improvements to their wares!

On the other hand, CCP taking control of global chip manufacturing may be enough to force US to defend Taiwan. It could, by the same logic Palantir expounds, be a war they can't afford to lose.

The US can't defend Taiwan. They can't even maintain supply lines in their war on Iran.

Only thing i can think of is China's air defense systems sold to Iran were proven to be not up to snuff, hence the military purge by Xi?

On the other hand, CCP taking control of global chip manufacturing may be enough to force US to defend Taiwan. It could, by the same logic Palantir expounds, be a war they can't afford to lose.

AI rise could fuel China invasion threat: Palantir

As Taiwan is the home to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), it makes it a chokepoint that China could exploit to halt US progress in AI technology if authorities in Beijing found the US was gaining too much of a lead, Gallagher said.

“If China takes Taiwan, they will control TSMC or disable TSMC — they will have the ability to hold the rest of the world economically hostage,” said Gallagher, who left Congress in early 2024 and joined Palantir later that year.

Granted, Palantir profits from war, so their report is no doubt part marketing campaign. But that doesn't detract from the logic of why China might take Taiwan if it feels the US is about to win the AI race.