Would seem to be at least possible that it could head north. It's basically rounded the ridge. Assume they're saying the ridge is going to build back in a bit.

Starting to gust up, but still fairly moderate. No rain as yet.

Note: the graphic has changed, when posted, JTWC was well to the south of the others which had the eye glancing the southern tip of TW, but since then they've basically all gravitated towards JTWC's track.

I wonder what's going on there at CWB on occasion. A couple of days ago they had it disappearing off the map just off the coast of Taidong on Fri, but now it's already a TD. They have updated their maps and it's forecast to come 'right here and affect us as soon as Wed, and the way it has taken shape in the last 24 hrs it would seem likely to develop into a typhoon along the way. Does seem to be moving very quickly, which is good - more of a short, sharp, jolt, but less destructive.

Interestingly, there's another low building in behind it. Could be in for a barraging.

This is the forecast chart for next thurs - shows that low coming right here. i was a bit excited when i first saw it - but on closer inspection it seems to be a very weak one, and in the next day's chart it has disappeared altogether.

Might be good for some rain at least.

Also good to see that the ITCZ has moved back down into a more normal position.