Not a big typhoon & not seeing any reports of massive rain so far, but that's a weird-arsed track.

I think sometimes they do know what they're doing, but just want to look stupid as shit.

Right. The hardest thing is seeing the forest, when you're being bombarded with trees.

With all the typhoon activity flying around, it could be yet another year with northern Taiwan not copping a big-one. It might still be revving up for a late season spurt, but it's been several years - can't remember a longer period of no major activity.

On the cloud-seeding, apparently drones are the delivery device of choice these days - coz they're much cheaper & allow more focused targeting.

My faith as to whether these agencies really know what the fuck they are doing - or understand potential collateral effects - is less than zero.

I read somewhere that a previous Republican stretegist or advisor to Trump said that one of their tactics was to dump so much stupid shit on the people that nobody knows really what's going on or is always focusing on the small stuff. This whole 'Lake America' crap is an example. Nothing else was in the headlines for a few days. My point is, I think sometimes they do know what they're doing, but just want to look stupid as shit.

Regardless of the forces at work, this is shaping up to be a very active and unusual storm season. Hawaii is getting another fly by on Monday after many years of no activity. Looks like southern Japan is going to get walloped.

Given that typhoons (low pressure systems) slide along the boundaries of high pressure systems, it would seem that you'd have to control that high pressure ridge in order to control the direction of a typhoon.
You could do that by weakening or strengthening it - but not sure how you'd achieve that effect.

You're right that weather manipulation is not some out-there conspiracy theory - it's actually well-known, been going on for yonks. It's not a big stretch to think that all the cloud-seeding already done could have an accumulative effect causing unintended consequences.

Apart from cloud-seeding, there's also a thing called cloud-brightening, which has been trialled in Australia over the Great Barrier Reef. It involves blasting salt crystals into the air (separated under pressure from ocean water), which is meant to create a cooling effect above the reef.

My faith as to whether these agencies really know what the fuck they are doing - or understand potential collateral effects - is less than zero.

EDIT: This makes me wonder if it's possible to affect weather by manipulating high pressure systems. Wouldn't that be a way to control the path of a low pressure system?

Project Cirrus, 1947–1948: The U.S. military and General Electric attempted to weaken or redirect hurricanes by seeding them. One storm, Hurricane King, was seeded in 1947. It later changed direction and hit Savannah, Georgia, leading to public controversy and lawsuits, although scientists could not establish that the seeding caused the change. The project was eventually abandoned.

Operation Popeye, 1967–1972: During the Vietnam War, the United States secretly seeded clouds over parts of Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia to extend the monsoon season and make roads harder to use. Aircraft dispersed silver iodide into clouds in an effort to increase rainfall. The operation became public through congressional investigations and press reports.

Other Cold War programs: The United States, the Soviet Union, and other countries investigated cloud seeding for rainmaking, hail suppression, fog dispersal, and snowpack enhancement. Some military interest focused on obscuring visibility, improving or disrupting transportation, or influencing battlefield conditions. Most results were inconsistent because cloud behavior is difficult to control and experiments are hard to separate from natural weather variation.

International restrictions: In response to concerns about environmental warfare, the United Nations adopted the Environmental Modification Convention (ENMOD) in 1977. It prohibits hostile military or other uses of environmental modification techniques that have widespread, long-lasting, or severe effects. It does not ban peaceful weather-modification research.

Not that i think this is possible, but it looks like someone is stationed on the coast of China on the other side of the Taiwan Strait trying to draw typhoons into Taiwan, but keeps narrowly missing.

I'm sure it's entirely possible, just unlikely and very hard to prove. But there's a long and well-documented history of attempts to change the weather for military purposes.

We had an odd 'out of nowhere' string of heavy rain cells forming near us then dumping rain as they passed over and I wondered the same thing. My tinfoil hat is never too far away!

Not that i think this is possible, but it looks like someone is stationed on the coast of China on the other side of the Taiwan Strait trying to draw typhoons into Taiwan, but keeps narrowly missing.

Your old stomping ground, Pingtung, has had 1250mm in the last 5 days. That's massive rain.
Has to be one of the wettest places for total rainfall in the known universe - proving that yet again.

Today, your other old haunt, Dong He, is in the top 5 with 370mm so far today - which could well hit 500 by midnight.

This appears to be caused by a typhoon that has sprung up just to the south of Pintung/Kaohsiung. Haven't seen too many typhoons form so to close the south coast before - normally it's well to the east.

Then as you say, potentially another double-whammy to impact up north with a very unusual track for Saudel going partially down the Taiwan strait from a northern entrance!

It was being projected to curl around to affect the rarely hit northwest tip of Taiwan, but is now forecast to be north of that.

It almost looks like they're being guided into the same spot - possible weather manipulation warfare?

Also, note the unusual forecast route for Saudel.

Gusts here on Guam reached a little over 100mph. The small island of Rota got hit directly and is now uninhabitable according to reports. All services and wooden structures destroyed. I can't imagine sustained winds of nearly twice what the gusts here were! I do not want to experience that without being in a very solid structure.

100mph is some scary-arsed wind!

Poor folks on Rota - that's like tornado force winds but the size of a typhoon - must've been hell on earth.

Glad to hear the power is back on. How was the intensity/damage level?

Gusts here on Guam reached a little over 100mph. The small island of Rota got hit directly and is now uninhabitable according to reports. All services and wooden structures destroyed. I can't imagine sustained winds of nearly twice what the gusts here were! I do not want to experience that without being in a very solid structure.

Guam is right where typhoons traditionally form, so that genesis sweet spot only needs a small shift to the east to put you in the firing line instead of being the cannon.

Meanwhile, Bavi is now threatening Taiwan. As i recall, in the past two years the two cat-5s that hit Dulan started out being projected to go well north but gradually the track started lowering towards the south, no doubt due to a blocking high building in. That's possible in this case as well.

On the other hand, it's been several years since Taipei has copped a big typhoon, so they're overdue.

Maybe there's something in that El Nino co-relation with big typhoons hitting the Marianas - two in 4 months seems extraordinary - & we're only half way through the season.

Two typhoons of this size impacting your neck of the woods within a year must be unusual.

IT CAN BE SAID THAT THE NORTHERN MARIANAS WILL EXPERIENCE AN IMPACT OF A SIGNIFICANT SUPER TYPHOON WITHIN 96 HOURS.
- And that's at four days out and this thing still just a kiddie. The certainty is unusual. Someone is putting their balls on the line!

NEARLY ALL RI GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER AND MULTIPLE RI PROBABILITIES ARE EXCEEDING 80-90 PERCENT, AN
UNPRECEDENTED VALUE, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.
- Again, the certainty is astonishing. And note the use of UNPRECEDENTED. If they mean literally, the agreement is higher than ever before.

TLDR: We're fucked.

EDIT: Source https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp0926prog.txt

-----

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (BAVI) CONTINUES
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF AN EXTENSION
OF THE STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, THIS AREA OF RIDGING WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE STEADILY
WEAKENING, WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY THE PRIMARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED SOUTH OF KYUSHU WILL BUILD EASTWARD, TAKING OVER THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THESE DYNAMIC STEERING PATTERN CHANGES
WILL LEAD TS 09W TO ASSUME A NEARLY WESTWARD TRAJECTORY BY TAU 24.
BY TAU 36, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RAPID MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE
COAST OF JAPAN, MOVING QUICKLY INTO FAR NORTHERN PACIFIC, INDUCING
A WEAKNESS IN THE STR TO THE NORTH OF TS 09W. WHILE THE TROUGH WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAW TS BAVI NORTHWARD, IT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE STEERING GRADIENT, RESULTING IN A FAIRLY SHARP
SLOW-DOWN IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF TS BAVI AFTER TAU 36. BEYOND TAU
72, THE SYSTEM SPEEDS UP MARGINALLY, AS A STR OVER THE RYUKYU
ISLANDS BEGINS TO EXTEND EASTWARD AND ASSUMES THE PRIMARY STEERING
ROLE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANAS
AROUND TAU 96. THE CPA TO GUAM HAS DECREASED BY APPROXIMATELY 30NM
SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE AIDS PACKAGE HAS SHIFTED SHARPLY
SOUTHWARD. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SOME
NEGATIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE 10-15 KNOTS OF SOUTHEASTERN SHEAR,
INHIBITING RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND DELAYING THE ONSET OF RI.
HOWEVER, ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A STEADY REDUCTION IN
SHEAR COMMENCING IMMINENTLY, AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL FIELDS
DEPICT THE SYSTEM ACHIEVING AXISYMMETRIZATION WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.
ONCE THIS OCCURS, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE RI, REACHING PEAK
INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 140 KNOTS WITHIN 72 HOURS. HAFS-A CONTINUES TO
DEPICT A PEAK INTENSITY EXCEEDING 150 KNOTS. AS EARLY AS TAU 72,
BUT THEN EXPLICITLY FORECASTS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (EWRC)
STARTING AROUND TAU 84 AND CONTINUING THROUGH PASSAGE TROUGH THE
NORTHERN MARIANAS. THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WROUGHT
BY THE EWRC IS YET TO BE DETERMINED WITH ANY FIDELITY, HOWEVER IT
CAN BE SAID THAT THE NORTHERN MARIANAS WILL EXPERIENCE AN IMPACT OF
A SIGNIFICANT SUPER TYPHOON WITHIN 96 HOURS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE OVERALL TRACK GUIDANCE PACKAGE HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD AS WELL AS TIGHTENED UP SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN.
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 HAS DECREASED TO 100NM, WHILE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120 HAS DECREASED TO 160NM AND THE WHOLE
PACKAGE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD BY ROUGHLY 30NM. THE EXPERIMENTAL GDM
FGNI TRACKER AND THE UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE ENVELOPE, WHILE NAVGEM IS POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE.
THE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE MODELS ARE ALL SITUATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE ENVELOPE, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE TRADITIONAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, EXCEPT FOR ECMWF, ARE LOCATED
IN THE NORTHERN HALF. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE ECMWF
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGH TO MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY REMAINS LARGE. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
PERSISTS ON THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM, PEAKING AT JUST 95 KNOTS,
WHILE THE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HAFS-A ARE AT THE HIGH END,
BETWEEN 145-155 KNOTS. NEARLY ALL RI GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER
AND MULTIPLE RI PROBABILITIES ARE EXCEEDING 80-90 PERCENT, AN
UNPRECEDENTED VALUE, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST.

Still, I was surprised that what was essentially a tropical storm for us, with some typhoon-strength gusts, took down electricity for the majority of the island for over two days in addition to water for a lot of people. Many are still without services. It's just one of the drawbacks of living on a small, remote island.

Luxury. Ex-tropical storm Alfred made landfall around here last year packing winds of 50-60kph (max gust on the coast of 90kph) & knocked out power to over 800 000 homes, costing billions.
The modern world, in Aus at least, is ridiculously flimsy.

You'd think underground lines would be a good idea in Guam - it's not like it's that big.

Was going to post a photo of damage in Saipan, but i can't tell what's AI generated or real anymore.

Still, I was surprised that what was essentially a tropical storm for us, with some typhoon-strength gusts, took down electricity for the majority of the island for over two days in addition to water for a lot of people. Many are still without services. It's just one of the drawbacks of living on a small, remote island.