Gusts here on Guam reached a little over 100mph. The small island of Rota got hit directly and is now uninhabitable according to reports. All services and wooden structures destroyed. I can't imagine sustained winds of nearly twice what the gusts here were! I do not want to experience that without being in a very solid structure.

100mph is some scary-arsed wind!

Poor folks on Rota - that's like tornado force winds but the size of a typhoon - must've been hell on earth.

Glad to hear the power is back on. How was the intensity/damage level?

Gusts here on Guam reached a little over 100mph. The small island of Rota got hit directly and is now uninhabitable according to reports. All services and wooden structures destroyed. I can't imagine sustained winds of nearly twice what the gusts here were! I do not want to experience that without being in a very solid structure.

Guam is right where typhoons traditionally form, so that genesis sweet spot only needs a small shift to the east to put you in the firing line instead of being the cannon.

Meanwhile, Bavi is now threatening Taiwan. As i recall, in the past two years the two cat-5s that hit Dulan started out being projected to go well north but gradually the track started lowering towards the south, no doubt due to a blocking high building in. That's possible in this case as well.

On the other hand, it's been several years since Taipei has copped a big typhoon, so they're overdue.

Maybe there's something in that El Nino co-relation with big typhoons hitting the Marianas - two in 4 months seems extraordinary - & we're only half way through the season.

Two typhoons of this size impacting your neck of the woods within a year must be unusual.

IT CAN BE SAID THAT THE NORTHERN MARIANAS WILL EXPERIENCE AN IMPACT OF A SIGNIFICANT SUPER TYPHOON WITHIN 96 HOURS.
- And that's at four days out and this thing still just a kiddie. The certainty is unusual. Someone is putting their balls on the line!

NEARLY ALL RI GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER AND MULTIPLE RI PROBABILITIES ARE EXCEEDING 80-90 PERCENT, AN
UNPRECEDENTED VALUE, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.
- Again, the certainty is astonishing. And note the use of UNPRECEDENTED. If they mean literally, the agreement is higher than ever before.

TLDR: We're fucked.

EDIT: Source https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp0926prog.txt

-----

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (BAVI) CONTINUES
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF AN EXTENSION
OF THE STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, THIS AREA OF RIDGING WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE STEADILY
WEAKENING, WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY THE PRIMARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED SOUTH OF KYUSHU WILL BUILD EASTWARD, TAKING OVER THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THESE DYNAMIC STEERING PATTERN CHANGES
WILL LEAD TS 09W TO ASSUME A NEARLY WESTWARD TRAJECTORY BY TAU 24.
BY TAU 36, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RAPID MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE
COAST OF JAPAN, MOVING QUICKLY INTO FAR NORTHERN PACIFIC, INDUCING
A WEAKNESS IN THE STR TO THE NORTH OF TS 09W. WHILE THE TROUGH WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAW TS BAVI NORTHWARD, IT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE STEERING GRADIENT, RESULTING IN A FAIRLY SHARP
SLOW-DOWN IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF TS BAVI AFTER TAU 36. BEYOND TAU
72, THE SYSTEM SPEEDS UP MARGINALLY, AS A STR OVER THE RYUKYU
ISLANDS BEGINS TO EXTEND EASTWARD AND ASSUMES THE PRIMARY STEERING
ROLE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANAS
AROUND TAU 96. THE CPA TO GUAM HAS DECREASED BY APPROXIMATELY 30NM
SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE AIDS PACKAGE HAS SHIFTED SHARPLY
SOUTHWARD. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SOME
NEGATIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE 10-15 KNOTS OF SOUTHEASTERN SHEAR,
INHIBITING RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND DELAYING THE ONSET OF RI.
HOWEVER, ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A STEADY REDUCTION IN
SHEAR COMMENCING IMMINENTLY, AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL FIELDS
DEPICT THE SYSTEM ACHIEVING AXISYMMETRIZATION WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.
ONCE THIS OCCURS, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE RI, REACHING PEAK
INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 140 KNOTS WITHIN 72 HOURS. HAFS-A CONTINUES TO
DEPICT A PEAK INTENSITY EXCEEDING 150 KNOTS. AS EARLY AS TAU 72,
BUT THEN EXPLICITLY FORECASTS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (EWRC)
STARTING AROUND TAU 84 AND CONTINUING THROUGH PASSAGE TROUGH THE
NORTHERN MARIANAS. THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WROUGHT
BY THE EWRC IS YET TO BE DETERMINED WITH ANY FIDELITY, HOWEVER IT
CAN BE SAID THAT THE NORTHERN MARIANAS WILL EXPERIENCE AN IMPACT OF
A SIGNIFICANT SUPER TYPHOON WITHIN 96 HOURS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE OVERALL TRACK GUIDANCE PACKAGE HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD AS WELL AS TIGHTENED UP SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN.
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 HAS DECREASED TO 100NM, WHILE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120 HAS DECREASED TO 160NM AND THE WHOLE
PACKAGE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD BY ROUGHLY 30NM. THE EXPERIMENTAL GDM
FGNI TRACKER AND THE UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE ENVELOPE, WHILE NAVGEM IS POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE.
THE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE MODELS ARE ALL SITUATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE ENVELOPE, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE TRADITIONAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, EXCEPT FOR ECMWF, ARE LOCATED
IN THE NORTHERN HALF. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE ECMWF
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGH TO MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY REMAINS LARGE. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
PERSISTS ON THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM, PEAKING AT JUST 95 KNOTS,
WHILE THE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HAFS-A ARE AT THE HIGH END,
BETWEEN 145-155 KNOTS. NEARLY ALL RI GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER
AND MULTIPLE RI PROBABILITIES ARE EXCEEDING 80-90 PERCENT, AN
UNPRECEDENTED VALUE, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST.

Still, I was surprised that what was essentially a tropical storm for us, with some typhoon-strength gusts, took down electricity for the majority of the island for over two days in addition to water for a lot of people. Many are still without services. It's just one of the drawbacks of living on a small, remote island.

Luxury. Ex-tropical storm Alfred made landfall around here last year packing winds of 50-60kph (max gust on the coast of 90kph) & knocked out power to over 800 000 homes, costing billions.
The modern world, in Aus at least, is ridiculously flimsy.

You'd think underground lines would be a good idea in Guam - it's not like it's that big.

Was going to post a photo of damage in Saipan, but i can't tell what's AI generated or real anymore.

Still, I was surprised that what was essentially a tropical storm for us, with some typhoon-strength gusts, took down electricity for the majority of the island for over two days in addition to water for a lot of people. Many are still without services. It's just one of the drawbacks of living on a small, remote island.

Yutu, in 2018 also hit Saipan (in Oct, the other end of the season), so it's not quite as uncommon as i thought. Interestingly, 2018 was also an El Nino year.

Before that, you've got to go back to 1968 & typhoon Jean (the start of an El Nino) for a storm of similar strength.

80mph winds in Guam is serious, especially when it's dragged out. 2&1/2 days to get internet, power back on is not bad going. Saipan would have been fucking scary. That got totally smashed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7L11cAGSIg

And it slowed to a crawl while it was passing, 3mph for quite a while. The highest gusts here were in the mid 80's mph, with sustained 40-50 I think, but it lasted a long time.

The media won't pick this up at all being Guam and Saipan, but I expect to see some pretty tragic scenes out of Saipan and the other islands.

EDIT: Better footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WC6Hw-C8YY .

JTWC has the eye passing east of Guam but close. Spaghetti models range it even closer. Take care.

Can you feel it already?

The big news in mid-east Aus is the El Nino, which has turned one of the wettest places on the planet in April into a dry zone. How does El Nino effect Guam, if at all?

EDIT: From AI - April typhoons on Guam are uncommon. The peak typhoon risk runs June–December (highest Aug–Nov); only a small fraction of Western North Pacific tropical cyclones affect Guam in April. Historically, typhoons or tropical storms near Guam in April occur only a few times per several decades (occasional April storms exist but are rare compared with the peak season).