It looks like Guam might get some of that action.

There's no real mystery to the lateness of this season - Dan would testify to that by the extended heat in Japan. If the ocean stays warm enough, there will be typhoons.

As of last weekend, there was still no visible snow on Mt. Fuji. Every day it goes without a snowcap sets a new record.

Speaking of records, i wonder how many times there have been 4 active systems in the NW Pacific in mid-Nov.

There's no real mystery to the lateness of this season - Dan would testify to that by the extended heat in Japan. If the ocean stays warm enough, there will be typhoons.

As of last weekend, there was still no visible snow on Mt. Fuji. Every day it goes without a snowcap sets a new record.

There's no real mystery to the lateness of this season - Dan would testify to that by the extended heat in Japan. If the ocean stays warm enough, there will be typhoons.

Damage to Sugar Factory roof by midday - the one that was replaced after last year's super typhoon. Whatever happened to normal typhoons? It's like the weather has been hijacked by Marvel.

Rain: Still coming down at 100 mil an hour in some places as of 4.20pm. Biggest falls in mountainous areas of Ilan & Hualien. Curiously Taichung city is 3rd with 600 mil.

Meanwhile in Spain (Valencia), insane scenes as flooding turns streets into walled canals. At least Taiwan is geared-up for massive rain, but below is what happens in countries that are not. Up to 100 dead & that will likely rise.

Xang-sane, sfaik, is the last typhoon to make landfall in Taiwan this late in the year. The paths are not that dissimilar. Kong-rey is way more powerful wind-wise, though.

Looking at the current rainfall data, Kong-rey's biggest impact so far is in Taipei, Shilin/Beitou. What's biggest on approach can be a sign of where the heaviest shit is heading. As was the case with Xang-sane, it's the chimney stack effect where it feeds in for days that does the damage.

The north east does have the dong-bei-ji cold-front coming into play as well, which can be an explosive interaction in terms of rain.

Latest track has Kong-rey's eye going right over the Dulan Sugar Factory.

1000+ mil from Krathon, another drenching from Trami just a week ago, now a direct hit from: Super Typhoon Kong-rey.

Winds: incredible - Cat 5. Major destruction territory.

Rain: Heavy already, (for Taitung) but in terms of the eye-wall rush-hours, shortish (a few hours) but very, very sharp - landslide triggering sharp.

The sat-image indicates an extremely torrential body of rain in a thick central structure.
It doesn't have a massive feed-in trailing it, & it's moving quite fast .. supposedly. Typhoons do funny things when they hit mountains.

Predicted to re-curve gang-gang hao in the Taiwan Strait. Which will allow it to maintain some strength - enough to dump its payload of rain on the way out the door.

As normal, it will be the whole east coast & then Kaohsiung-Pingtung in the second act.

Don't wanna be alarmist - but - doing my DIY algorithim thing - Taitung east coast is currently rated as: historically high risk of catastrophic impacts

There were also heavy rains caused by Trami that went south a few days ago, which did cause landslides - the soil couldn't be more saturated. A directish hit from a serious typhoon is not what you need right now.

Two days ago it was forecast to pass harmlessly out to sea off the east coast. Once the model/algorithms start correcting themselves, they rarely do it one leap - it's invariably a gradual pendulum-swing thing, though we're probably getting towards the southerly limits of that arc right now. It's currently aimed directly at Taitung City.

According to the Weather Charts, the sub-tropical-ridge (High north of Taiwan) has built in hard, pushing Kong-rey west. But: a cold-front is meant to open up a weakness in the ridge, into which Kong-rey will slip through to accomplish every low pressure's goal - head towards the nearest pole.

The net result of that could be the track splits Taiwan up the spine as it travels north. Apart from the Taitung impact, that's a path that can also cause massive accumulated rain in the north.

It's a good sized storm, gusts up to 130kts (which may well rise). It would be very late in the season for Taiwan to record a direct hit (Oct 31 to Nov 1), but not beyond precedent. The year before Nari became the biggest flooding typhoon in 200 years, there was a typhoon on Nov 1 that was the then-biggest flooding typhoon in 100 years.

Still pouring on the east coast (south & north, but not mid), but now Kaohsiung & Pingdong are coming into play as the eye makes landfall.

As you say, it did duck east just before it crept ashore - it was forecast to go to Tainan but seems to have crossed right over Kaohsiung city after all.

Be interesting to see where the exit wound ends up being. Erratic behaviour traversing the mountains is not uncommon.

The stairway to Kaohsiung ...
We won't see that track too many times - perfectly picked the gap between Taiwan & PPE then comes up through southern Taiwan - most of it at snail's pace.

There's always a blocking high involved in these stalling situations.

Thanks for the link!

https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/E/W/OBS_Top.html

(CWA - Weather tab - Top 10 Today)

Have a feeling this is gonna be a bigger story by tomorrow morning.

There's a crazy new typhoon rule in Taiwan now - if one county has a typhoon day off then they all have it. In northern Taiwan there's no real impact today, but businesses are closed. That must be annoying for business owners.

Then it's still not going anywhere fast tomorrow. It's shaping up as a freak, dangerous event.

Freak, dangerous event to be sure. We never had something like this the whole time we lived in the Kaohsiung-Pingtung area.

Where are you getting the 3 day cumulative rain readings?

Three day accumulative totals are already 1000+ for some areas south of Taidong City. A lot of that is military land, so it's not making the news yet i guess, but it's creeping north - Beinan is 900+ for three days, Chihben has had 350+ just today. Tonight will likely escalate.

CWA does have Taidong on the (only in Taiwan) Extremely Torrential rain warning level

Then it's still not going anywhere fast tomorrow. It's shaping up as a freak, dangerous event.

Check out this path - so loitering - like a naughty child that doesn't want to come in from play-time. CWA's 24hr track is usually accurate, but looking at the radar, it would still seem some chance of sneaking up the strait.

There's even an eddy forming within the overall structure off the coast of Miaoli in the north west that's got it's own thing going.

As the image suggests, it's the east coast that's continuing to cop the brunt of the rain - already up to 300mm in the south today. That's only gonna intensify in the next couple of days.

Meanwhile, there's virtually no rain in Kaohsiung, so far. That will change obviously, but it's still getting protection from the central range at this stage.

Currently, there's a serious looking band of rain pouring into Dulan, Dong He. That could be one of the torrential bursts that starts moving mountains.