The following article states that seven Taiwan deaths have resulted, and that's an old article, out of Boston no less.

http://bo.st/QhGUBc

The current situation looks pretty dire for central Taiwan. Would expect massive landslides and major damage. Those people really could have done with a bit more warning. Let's hope there aren't any lives lost due to this incompetent bungle.

Guessing we will move into the rain stage of the typhoon later today or tonight.

Once this thing heads west, that cell south of us is going to come north. The question seems to be which side of the island is going to get it. I'd bet on Pingtung-Kaohsiung taking the brunt of it, but we'll see. It may sneak under the peninsula and give us show.

There was a full-scale party here last night for the concert workers - i think it was wilder than the actual concert - and the typhoon was blowing up and seemed to be adding to the effect so that every time a huge gust came through it was spontaneously cheered - not sure whether that goes on the Beaufort scale for wind or drunkeness.

CWB is predicting gusts of up to 95kts for tomorrow and the next day for south-east off-shore. That's some serious wind. You wanna hold on tight to your beer can for that.

This is an interesting sat pic - shows a massive amount of rain and even a possible periphery circulation within the main typhoon to our south. If it follows the predicted path this will get dragged over us and could be substantial.

• Lawn chairs blowing
  
• Difficulty of rolling a cigarette (at least three levels to this one)
  
• Lids blown of pots left in outdoor kitchen
  
• Pots in outdoor kitchen blown away
  
• Full beer blown over (almost)
  
• Motorcycle blown over
  
• Laundry disappears

That's a start. I'll get a wiki page going for it tomorrow. For now, a movie to watch before it gets too noisy with this wind and rain.

Driving rain here and some window shaking gusts

Serious rainfall in Yilan. There are places with 600 ml and counting from yesterday to today. Was planning on making a furniture run to TP this weekend but doubt the Su Hwa highway will survive this.

Should be a new graph from CWB any minute - will post it when it comes up.

TY 10W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD
DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS.

The word 'drift' doesn't give me comfort.

UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TY 10W SHOULD
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY NEAR A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 48, WHICH SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTO TAU 72 BEFORE LANDFALL.

So it's going to intensify and drift. The above statement assumes the storm will not make landfall on Taiwan, but even if it doesn't, it's going to give us a lot of action as it drifts and intensifies on our east porch.

TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE MUST CURRENTLY REMAIN LOW DUE
TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND CAUTION IN THE NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK MOTION TIMING.

So, it's drifting, intensifying, and we're not really sure where it's going to go.

Full bulletin copied below.

WDPN31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 310445Z TRMM 85 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLCC AS WELL AS A LACK OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TRACK MOTION OVER
THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS BEEN SLOW AND MEANDERING AS TY 10W IS
CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, TRMM IMAGE, AND
PGTW FIX, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, ALONG WITH AN
APPROXIMATELY 75 PERCENT DEVELOPED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE TRMM IMAGE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 10W CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
CELL TO THE WEST FILLS INTO TROUGHING. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS
WELL DEFINED AND IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) OVER THE LLCC BUT
REACHES MODERATE TO STRONG LEVELS NEAR 25N DUE TO OUT-OF- PHASE
LOWER- AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FROM INFLOW INTO TS 11W, AS EVIDENT IN
THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD
DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS.
BY TAU 48 THE STR TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THE NER AS
THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE CAUSING AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK SPEED. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TY 10W SHOULD
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY NEAR A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 48, WHICH SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTO TAU 72 BEFORE LANDFALL.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, WITH A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER,
LEADING TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NORTHWESTWARD TURN NEAR TAU 48. THE EGRR IS THE LEFT MOST OUTLIER
WITH AN ABRUPT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BEFORE COMING BACK INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. THE GFDN IS THE RIGHT
MOST OUTLIER BUT HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS
(CONW) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN CONW DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY LEFT OF CONW DURING TAUS 36-72 TO OFFSET THE
OUTLIERS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE MUST CURRENTLY REMAIN LOW DUE
TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND CAUTION IN THE NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK MOTION TIMING.//
NNNN

This is a tough one to call. When's it going to move?