Another scary thing to look at are the guys who work barefoot on the bamboo scaffolding many stories above ground with no safety net or harness. I don't have any pictures but you see it all the time.

One thing people often under-appreciate about the Taiwanese character is the toughness.

That could easily go again, potentially bigger as well.

Meanwhile, whole east coast is getting pummeled - serious kinda subsystem hitting Taitung right now

At least 50 people killed in Philippines - lots more missing. All due to rain/mudslides.

Ilan has had another 1000mm over the last couple of days - they must be on track for a world record - by my reckoning they've had 5000mm+ in the last month or so.

Wherever Nalge ends up, there will be floods/landlsides. HK appears to be in the firing line.

5000mm is an unbelievable amount of rain. Fifteen feet +. Of rain. If that were snow, it would be over 100 feet. The rough conversion of rain to snow is 1 to 5, but according to this calculator, temperature makes a big difference.

It sure looks like the east coast is in for it:

Ilan has had another 1000mm over the last couple of days - they must be on track for a world record - by my reckoning they've had 5000mm+ in the last month or so.

Wherever Nalge ends up, there will be floods/landlsides. HK appears to be in the firing line.

Couple that with a slow or stalled path up the west coast of the Kenting peninsula (also not happening), you would have the big one so far as a mega-rain event in Taitung.

Landfall on PPE will take some sting out of it for TW but will likely still bring down-big-rain for Taitung. Apart from the High, it's all about the moisture feed-in, which looks strong for Nalgae, may even be another queuing up behind.

Nov 4:

If the high were to build in, however, block its run, causing it to stall in the Nov 1 position, drift up the west coast of Kenting peninsular - that's the nightmare scenario for a big rain event on the south east coat. Like a reverse Morakot effect.

Never seen it happen, not exactly, but it's possible.

Meanwhile Victoria is still flooded with its 150mm. It's kinda surreal - it hasn't rained for a couple of days but the flood waters are flowing down the major rivers, swamping towns as they go. My uncle is in one of those towns. He went under in '74 (few inches) but appears to be ok, just, this time.

Has come out that a flood prevention wall built to protect a racecourse resulted in a transference of water into the adjacent residential area in Melbourne. That's like the opposite of a flood-mitigation project.

Seriously? For 150mm of rain spread across two days?! Is Australia's flood mitigation really that pathetic?

Meanwhile Taipei has had another 600mm+ since yesterday - with a lot more to come. Typhoon Nesat is passing south of Taiwan, which is exactly where it can kick up moisture to the east coast which then interacts with the monsoon.

Those words make me nervous coming out of Victoria. This is a state that holds all the world records for most draconian lockdowns - etc - all made possible by declaring a State of Disaster. It gives the premier dictatorial control. It's a power-trip. It's also frighteningly popular amongst Victorians, which then feeds back into the power-trip.

The Vic floods do raise questions about Australia's, especially Vic's preparedness for severe weather events.

A week ago we were posting about 1500 mil of rain in Ilan, the only noticeable impact being a round boulder hole in a car roof - this State of Disaster event in Victoria involved 150 mil spread over two days. That's the peak areas. Most places had well under 100 for two days.

Places that are used to extreme weather, such as Taiwan, may be at an advantage coz they've already got the infrastructure to cope with it - the drains, the concrete housing, the emergency response network. But when we've got places going under after 150 mil in the mountains, then that shows how worryingly exposed large parts of the world are to extreme events.

Man, that's as fucking scary as you can get without being dead ...

Why that Su-Hwa Highway was still open on Saturday is questionable. They have big iron gates to lock it down.

Interestingly, the gates were introduced after the buses were swept off the cliffs in landslides during a very similar event - happened Oct 23, 2010. It wasn't a typhoon directly - though there was a typhoon (Megi) that passed south of Taiwan that contributed moisture - but it was the interaction with the NE monsoon that set the downpours off. There's something about that outcrop between Su-Ao to Nan-Ao where it goes crazy when a typhoon mixes with the dong-bei-ji.

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2010/10/23/2003486674

Edit: Dug up the Megi 2010 track

Still, wouldn't want to be driving on the Su-Ao highway - there must be landslides, surely.

It looks like the family of this car wishes they hadn't:

Falling rock smashes into family’s car on east Taiwan freeway

It's not a typhoon - just a relatively small system stuck in the same area. Anywhere else in the world that would be a major disaster, but it shows how well Taiwan is prepared for big rain plus the natural run-off from the coastal range. Still, wouldn't want to be driving on the Su-Ao highway - there must be landslides, surely.

The system is meant to drift south today towards Hualien/Taitung. It's packing an incredible punch for something that looks like nothing on the sat image, so watch out!

Meanwhile, there does appear to be typhoon brewing in the usual spot E of PPE.