Big surge in Chinese military activity yesterday involving 71 planes in 'strike drills'. PRC released aerial photos which are supposedly of Taiwan's central range - guess that's meant to send a message.

Well, they have a window for action for the next couple of years.Taiwan is set to launch it's first homemade sub, which won't play well locally in China once it happens. The US seems to be opening floodgates of weapons to Taiwan albeit for a price unlike Ukraine. There's a US election coming up in 2024 that will see either DeSantis or Biden win, and I think DeSantis stands a very good chance of beating Biden. Either one of them will not favor China. China was probably hoping that Trump might stand a chance, but that fool is out. The point is that China sees nothing good on the horizon in the US leadership, and things at home for China aren't going so well. In fact, they're sorta fucked economically, like the rest of the world. They dropped the zero covid policy to avoid social unrest, but that unrest could continue. If it does, pressure to move on Taiwan will increase.

Anecdotally, a friend in Taiwan tells me that her friends living/working long-term in China are returning to Taiwan.

Interesting. I've heard that rich Chinese are leaving in large numbers, and I know a bunch of foreigners got out once they could. Things just seem very unstable in China, and that doesn't bode well for Taiwan.

Anecdotally, a friend in Taiwan tells me that her friends living/working long-term in China are returning to Taiwan.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4761905

I think China is going to creep in like a cat. It's going to establish more footholds. It will use regional blockades that block selected ports, then maybe start with temporary total blockades under the guise of fighting terrorism or such. Maybe, maybe take an outlying island. And the world will slowly begin to accept these infractions as it becomes worn down by war in E. Europe.

Yes, that has long been the CCP's strategy - gradual envelopment - so you'd imagine they would continue on that path. The painting of Taiwan as a terrorist state is of course laughable, but quite likely. That's the same reasoning used to explain persecution of Uyghurs & rounding up dissidents in HK. In fact, a staged-terrorism attack would be on the cards if the CCP does get to that point where they're ready for the final solution. They will definitely be looking for something to use as justification.

Speaking of which, this photo is not a terrorism attack - just some drunk guy who accidentally crashed his car into the police station in Taipei. Crashing your car is never good, but crashing through the front door of the cop shop whilst drunk is Olympic-standard dzao-gao.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4709252

More Americans worried about Taiwan

Taiwan-China tensions were the third-most concerning issue among Americans, with 82 percent of respondents saying the tensions were “serious” or “very serious.”

The only two more concerning issues for Americans were the partnership between China and Russia (87 percent), and China’s military power (86 percent), the poll found.

Compared with the March survey, the percentage of Americans who said tensions across the Taiwan Strait were a “very serious” concern for their country also rose by 7 percentage points.

So why the 7 percent rise? It can only be because of media coverage. So that 7 percent rise reflects a significant emphasis in the media on potential or likely conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

With public opinion being entirely formed by the media now, one really has to inspect the media and the methods it uses to sway thought. One could argue that the media is the most powerful, what, force? Entity? We don't know because just as we don't elect our international bodies like the IMF and World Bank, we don't elect our media. Shouldn't we have that option?

A lot of interesting stories regarding Taiwan and war have been produced by the media in the last 48 hours. Let's have a look:

Blinken again warns China wants to 'speed up' plan to seize Taiwan

During a talk at Stanford University on Monday (Oct. 17), Blinken said Beijing has made the "fundamental decision that the status quo is no longer acceptable" and China is now pursuing "reunification on a much faster timeline."

US Navy chief says China could invade Taiwan before 2024

The top commander of the U.S. Navy (USN) on Thursday (Oct. 19) said that a fleet must be prepared for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan that could happen at any point before 2024, far earlier than the previously anticipated date of 2027.

These two stories came out within a few days of each other. And we're to believe that they were not coordinated? Of course they were. We're going to get messages now that China could move on Taiwan at any moment; it's imminent, we just don't know when.

So the question then is, just as it appears China is prepping its citizens via these fake covid restrictions, could the US media be preparing its citizens through these fake interviews?

It would make sense if China were to make a move sooner rather than later. Assuming Xi gets his third term, why would he wait until two or three years into that term to make a move? Wouldn't it be to his advantage to start early, having five years to complete his mission? After all, at the end of this third term, he wants at least one of two things: a fourth term or a historically positive legacy.

Plus, he sees what's happening with regards to the world waking up to protecting the Taiwan Strait, and the world is way behind China. China has built it's island bases. Nationalism is at a peak. People are conditioned for hardship. They're primed and ready to go. Why wait? Plus, the world economy is diving. China real estate is plunging. Civil unrest is going to increase. A good old fashioned war would help with that.

The question is, will they take an all out, full on 'shock and awe' approach, or do it in baby steps. I'm guessing large baby steps. Look, they built those fucking islands in the S. China Sea and the world didn't say shit. Well, they didn't do shit, and that's what counts.

I think China is going to creep in like a cat. It's going to establish more footholds. It will use regional blockades that block selected ports, then maybe start with temporary total blockades under the guise of fighting terrorism or such. Maybe, maybe take an outlying island. And the world will slowly begin to accept these infractions as it becomes worn down by war in E. Europe.

And that's a big deal -- the war in Ukraine. It's sapping western reserves and public will. The US is a divided country already; it's actually in a very weak state, weak socially, politically, and economically.

So I think China will take big baby steps, and then at some point, when it is so close to Taiwan that it could deliver it's mail, it will be done. And that could take two years, with the plan being that if they are countered militarily, OK, full on war. But by then, the Chinese will be all for it and the US voters likely tired out by it all as war will likely be going on in some form or another in Europe AND there will be a US presidential election happening.

Could be an interesting decade.

Not only is he licking Xi's asshole for economic gain, he has also somehow gotten into his head that he has the power to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war by, well, giving up Ukraine. what an asshole.

Ok, at least they're transparent!

DPP Spokesperson Huang Tsai-lin (黃彩玲): Musk caters to the threat of the aggressor by sacrificing Taiwan’s independence, completely ignoring the limitless ambitions of authoritarian rulers.

Yep. The implication is that Musk also has limitless ambitions of authoritarian rule.

Time to draw-back from the one-everything maniacs - get back to community living - in an old-fashioned democracy.

And he's an asshole for polluting our night skies with his satellites.

Musk: My recommendation … would be to figure out a special administrative zone for Taiwan that is reasonably palatable. Probably won’t make everyone happy. And it’s possible, and I think probably, in fact, that they could have an arrangement that’s more lenient than Hong Kong.

Bet it will make Musk happy (his cars are made in China), so who cares about anyone else - or any notions of human rights - or democracy - so long as Musk keeps making billions ...

Anyway, good to see a poll on what Taiwanese felt about Pelosi's visit.

Easier to copy-past it:
(Taiwan News) — The Aug. 2-3 visit to Taiwan by United States House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was welcomed by 52.9%, according to the results of an opinion poll published Tuesday (Aug. 16).

However, 24% did not welcome her, including a majority of 58% of Kuomintang (KMT) supporters, the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF) survey revealed.

Considering the wave of Chinese missile launches and military drills close to Taiwan which followed Pelosi’s visit, 52.9% said she still should have gone ahead with the trip, while 33.6% said Taipei should have canceled the visit.

An even larger majority of Taiwanese, 78.3%, said they were not afraid of the Chinese maneuvers, even though they included the firing of ballistic missiles over the country. Only 17.2% expressed fear about the drills.

The TPOF survey also found that 39% of respondents saw a war with China in the imminent future as “somewhat likely,” while 53% said it would be “not very likely or totally unlikely.”

Sentiment about the likelihood of the U.S. sending troops to help defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack was more evenly divided, according to the TPOF poll. A total of 47.5% did not believe Washington would intervene, while 44.1% held the opposite opinion.

The TPOF conducted its poll on Aug. 8-9, resulting in 1,035 valid samples with a margin of error at 3.05%.

The last one is interesting. Most Taiwanese think the US will dud them if it comes to war.

There's one more thing we can do, and that is to practice the simple approach or reciprocity. We can't buy property in your country? Fine, you can't do it in ours. You want concessions to build factories? Fine, we want the same. You want your citizens to enjoy the freedoms of our country? Fine, we want our citizens to enjoy those same freedoms in your country. Oh, you would rather not? OK, then we'll treat your citizens in our country like you treat them in your country. How's that? We can track them, search their homes for no reason, imprison them for no reason...

Reciprocity. Why the hell countries don't do this is beyond me.

That's something that has bugged me as well. Chinese can (and do) go to Australia and buy cattle-farms the size of a small US state. But try doing that, as a foreigner, in China. Was once called a racist for arguing this point on a forum, but it's a clear case of the scales tipped in favour of a totalitarian country. Why are we doing that?

So cut your losses then consolidate the rest? Yeah, i hope it's not that, but it's a plausible scenario. That's why i never trusted Trump's rhetoric on China - you always felt like he saw Taiwan as a bargaining chip.

Something like that. Trump is full of shit. The only thing he cares about is himself. He'd turn on his own family. I truly believe that. And the US just doesn't have the will to fight a bloody, full on war against a military equal, which China is now. Sure, we'll bomb Iraq to shit and make it look great on TV. But going up against China over Taiwan goes so far in China's favor that the US govt. won't consider it. For China, it's a national mission of spiritual proportions. Most Americans don't know where the fuck Taiwan is, and once they see ships getting sunk and hundreds, maybe thousands of soldiers dying every day, well... no US politician is going to go there.

Now, the one thing that would change that is if China were to attack US bases in Japan or Guam, or if they were to fire the first shot and sink a ship. Then the whole cowboy American pride quality would come into play, similar to what led the US into WWII. But ultimately it's all politics, power, and money. Democratic virtue doesn't mean shit to US politicians. They thwart democracy whenever democracy doesn't serve them, and praise its virtues when it does. Just look at how the Democratic Party is trying to block the Green Party in the US

There were two moments in history that stick out.

1. Switching recognition from Taiwan to China.

2. Post Tienanmen Square.

Agreed, and I would add a more recent example, and that is Obama's failure to block or at least slow down China's expansion into the South China Sea by building then militarizing islands. It mostly happened under his watch. Sure he paid lip service, but he didn't do shit about it. In fact, aside from legalizing same sex marriage, Obama didn't actually do anything at all during his whole 8-year presidency, even though he had the congress. Obamacare is a fucking nightmare and a cash cow for the insurance industry. I really had high hopes for him, but he ended up being just like all the other presidents, nothing. A corporate lap dog.

Things can still be done - but it takes political will. First job is sort out manufacturing. It's beyond absurd that we are reliant on a totalitarian regime for half the goods in our house. Same way i eventually managed to get the tree down and cut-up. It's a difficult job, pity i didn't do it sooner, but it was still doable.

Agreed 100%. I think any leverage the west has here is economic. Yes, we depend on China, but they depend on us. Western countries should become more self reliant, but there's one more thing we can do, and that is to practice the simple approach or reciprocity. We can't buy property in your country? Fine, you can't do it in ours. You want concessions to build factories? Fine, we want the same. You want your citizens to enjoy the freedoms of our country? Fine, we want our citizens to enjoy those same freedoms in your country. Oh, you would rather not? OK, then we'll treat your citizens in our country like you treat them in your country. How's that? We can track them, search their homes for no reason, imprison them for no reason...

Reciprocity. Why the hell countries don't do this is beyond me.

Strategists must have entertained the cynical view that in the event of China taking Taiwan, US bases might get a boost of support. Plus, Marcos Jr. just won the presidency in the Philippines, and I can see the US using the fall of Taiwan as a selling point to get more of a presence in the Philippines and possibly other places like Palau.

So cut your losses then consolidate the rest? Yeah, i hope it's not that, but it's a plausible scenario. That's why i never trusted Trump's rhetoric on China - you always felt like he saw Taiwan as a bargaining chip.

Like a lot of things, the mistakes were made many years ago. Yesterday i cut down a tree that was too close to the house. Apart from filling the gutters with leaves, clogging the down-pipes, there's the fire hazard it posed if a bushfire comes this way. It was a big job - dangerous - to me - and also the risk that it might fall on the house. If i'd done it when i first got here it would have been a lot easier. If the people who lived here before me had had the foresight, they could have bent down and plucked it straight out of the ground as a seedling.

Similarly, the west allowed the situation with Taiwan/China to get out of hand to the point where a simple visit from a senior politician becomes a potential trigger for war.

There were two moments in history that stick out.

1. Switching recognition from Taiwan to China. You could argue this was partly/mainly the fault of the KMT who were still insisting on their status as rightful rulers of all China, but Kissinger is also to blame for his lack of foresight as to where it would end up. (Or did he know, but thought, according to his 'higher-truth', that it was the best thing for the 'new world order'?)

2. Post Tienanmen Square. At that time there was limited trade with China, and, as i remember, trade sanctions were placed on China as a containment policy. There was also strong public sentiment in the west to reject the totalitarianism of the CCP. Australia's PM of the time, Bob Hawke, famously broke down sobbing on TV at a memorial for the slain protesters. But then came the rise of 'economic rationalism', with it's core principle of not getting caught up in politics or morality, but simply doing whatever makes the most money in the immediate future. As such the sanctions were all lifted, 'the pivot to China' began, and UFWD began its push into western institutions - and so we've arrived at the situation we are in today. (note: you can also blame economic rationalism for dragging out the use of fossil fuels - long after we had alternatives)

Things can still be done - but it takes political will. First job is sort out manufacturing. It's beyond absurd that we are reliant on a totalitarian regime for half the goods in our house. Same way i eventually managed to get the tree down and cut-up. It's a difficult job, pity i didn't do it sooner, but it was still doable.

That's a bit bleak, but probably true. Any way you slice it, it's hard to see how the western world can function without Chinese goods/money - which doesn't leave much room for doing anything.

It is bleak, maybe overly so. I mean there is hope that everything will be resolved peacefully, and hopefully that will happen. But if China decides that it's tired of waiting and puts on the serious squeeze, I don't see the west coming to the rescue. The US is economically bogged down in Ukraine, plus its sending a shitload of weapons there, depleting stocks.

There's another angle to this for the US. Its bases in Okinawa and Guam are extremely unpopular. In fact the US is being forced to relocated troops from Okinawa to Guam as a result of a string of horrid crimes committed by US soldiers.

Strategists must have entertained the cynical view that in the event of China taking Taiwan, US bases might get a boost of support. Plus, Marcos Jr. just won the presidency in the Philippines, and I can see the US using the fall of Taiwan as a selling point to get more of a presence in the Philippines and possibly other places like Palau. I mean, the US military will never have a formal presence in Taiwan (well, never say never, but...), so in a sense, the fall of Taiwan would have some positive strategic outcome for the US.

There currently appears to be zero-will in Australia to de-couple from this trade-trap. Politicians know it would cause economic pain in the short term, which would cause them to lose the election - so - just forget about it ...

Exactly the same situation in the US.

There's a (large) portion of Taiwanese who simply want to be left alone - they don't want to become a political plaything for either the US or China, but that seems a forlorn hope now.

Yeah, and this is the tragedy of it all. It's the Taiwanese who just want to hang out and sell their zhenzhunaicha and computer chips who will suffer the consequences. I just can't imagine China occupying Taiwan. I do sort of think a lot of people in Taiwan have their head in the sand as a natural reaction. I mean, how else can you respond? It's striking, though, when you see or read interviews of Taiwanese brushing off any threat of invasion just like the Ukrainians did up to the hour the Russians attacked.

The hand has been dealt, the cards largely played, and China has won. The world is just in denial at this point.

That's a bit bleak, but probably true. Any way you slice it, it's hard to see how the western world can function without Chinese goods/money - which doesn't leave much room for doing anything.

There currently appears to be zero-will in Australia to de-couple from this trade-trap. Politicians know it would cause economic pain in the short term, which would cause them to lose the election - so - just forget about it ...

There's a (large) portion of Taiwanese who simply want to be left alone - they don't want to become a political plaything for either the US or China, but that seems a forlorn hope now.

But, they'll use that as leverage to increase military positions in East Asia, particularly the Philippines, which they'll try to reestablish bases in, and Pacific Island nations, Australia, etc.

I hope none of that happens. But what would a war between China and the US look like? I mean, seriously, what would be the outcome of that? How would it be resolved? And could it be resolved without going nuclear?

This is why the status quo is just fine!

This is what we were talking about - the never-ending live-fire exercises with the potential to play havoc with the supply chain.

That's the game I see them playing. Creeping and encroaching to whatever extent they can, then waiting until that is the new normal. China holds all the cards now. Let's say their navy vessels get to the point at which they're more or less constantly visible from the Taiwan coast, at least with binoculars. What then? And what is to stop them from getting to that point? I mean, they've crossed the proverbial line already, nobody does shit, so why not just keep creeping up?

The fact is that they know that neither Taiwan nor the US is going to stop them. I think they're going to just slowly, methodically, subsume Taiwan. It's happening before our eyes. Then, they may pounce and take the quick route of a blitzkrieg if necessary. That's what they're getting into the position for, but they may not have to do it. They might be able to just bring Taiwan to its knees economically.

At what point does the US apply trade sanctions on China? (forget about Aus - never is the short answer)

It can't. It would be economic suicide for the US. China has massively outplayed the US on trade.

Can US survive a trade cutoff with China?

Nope, because we don't manufacture shit.

The hand has been dealt, the cards largely played, and China has won. The world is just in denial at this point.

Here's an interesting perspective.

One takeaway from this interview is that China has a window now to invade as many of the systems the US is selling Taiwan won't arrive until the 2030's.

Might be a long war ...

(Taiwan News) — Chinese state-run media on Sunday (Aug. 7) announced that although four days of military exercises were set to end, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will start to hold "regular" military drills east of Taiwan's median line.

China's state-run TV news station CCTV cited a commentator .. (who) claimed that the median line has never received legal recognition and described it as an "imaginary" line conceived by the U.S. military in the previous century to meet their combat needs.

This is what we were talking about - the never-ending live-fire exercises with the potential to play havoc with the supply chain.

At what point does the US apply trade sanctions on China? (forget about Aus - never is the short answer)

Can US survive a trade cutoff with China?

Currently, they're terrorizing Taiwan - entrenching forces - controlling zones. As pay-back for a visit to a free country? It's not commensurate. Guess it wasn't meant to be.

One takeaway from this interview is that China has a window now to invade as many of the systems the US is selling Taiwan won't arrive until the 2030's.

The shipping disruption seems to be a little more pronounced now.

Must create bottleneck disruption at least. Seems 'supply-chain' is coming into focus as a main lever for the CCP.