Put that together with cyber-warfare/AI fighter capability - you've got a strong hand in WW3.

And add to that the realization in the West that it's quickly losing influence and any window to take advantage of any advantage it still has.

Shame they couldn't do that with planes - i could fly to Taiwan in hour.

Shame we aren't putting all that technology to uses that might actually benefit humanity.

When i first saw news about hyper-sonic-weapons i thought ok, China's is testing the latest weapon-tech - not too surprised - but i didn't realize they are the world leaders in it.

Put that together with cyber-warfare/AI fighter capability - you've got a strong hand in WW3.

Defense News: It is widely acknowledged to be the leader in the field of hypersonic systems, having already fielded such weapons in the form of the DF-17 hypersonic glide vehicle.

The DF-17 HGV made its first public appearance at a military parade held in China’s capital Beijing in late 2019.

Lot of crazy shit happened in late 2019.

Hypersonic missiles can travel at 5 times the speed of sound, supposedly. That's 761 mph x 5 = 3805 mph (6124kph). Fast enough to evade missile defense systems.

Shame they couldn't do that with planes - i could fly to Taiwan in hour.

Buckled under the weight? Or simply started buying it again after Australia rode to China's rescue in the Solomon Islands?

I'm all for throwing off the CCP influence and recognizing Taiwan, but none of us want to see Chinese people targeted because of their ethnicity.

Indeed. Not only is it tragic for the community, it promotes even greater government suppression. It's the sort of event that hands government a green light to take aggressive action.

Can you imagine if Taiwanese started targeting immigrant Chinese or China sympathizers? It would be horrible on the basic level of tribalism and common sense, but it would also be politically disastrous for Taiwan.

Or is it there to fill a security vacuum that China may fill if they didn't go?

The story says the rogue island is getting US as well as Taiwanese support so it would be strange if Australia went against US strategy in the Pacific.

It's hard to believe in this day and age but they might even be there to do what they're saying publicly - just calm things down and keep the peace.

I'm all for throwing off the CCP influence and recognizing Taiwan, but none of us want to see Chinese people targeted because of their ethnicity.

I'm curious to see how it unfolds.

The normal way of things is China offers big bags of cash and govts greedily go for it - no more is said.

This is the dirty secret that lies at the heart of world politics - we know Taiwan is a democratic country - we know China is a totalitarian regime - we know we crap on about 'letting Freedom reign - but hey - look at all that money!

As a rule, nobody cares. But the changeover didn't go according to script in the Solomons.

News: Tensions have been flared by a rivalry between the islands of Malaita, the country’s most populous island, and Guadalcanal which are both part of the Solomons Islands.

Guadalcanal is home to the nation’s government which China has allegedly “bribed” to break ties with Taiwan. Malaita, meanwhile, receives aid from United States and Taiwan.

The Malaita province Premier, Mr Suidani, blasted the move saying the Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare had been offered a bribe to support the switch, which Mr Sogavare denied.

He has also defiantly maintained contact with the Taiwan authorities. As a result the province continues to receive outsized aid from Taipei and Washington.

The nation has two days of chaos, with rioting and looting in the capital Honiara and the burning of public buildings and shops.

Mr Suidani has accused Mr Sogavare of being in Beijing’s pocket, alleging he had “elevated the interest of foreigners above those of Solomon Islanders”.

“People are not blind to this and do not want to be cheated anymore.”

As a result, there has been rioting. Unfortunately, Chinese businesses have been attacked and set on fire - made the scapegoats of the local people's anger against big-power politics. It's believed that resentment against Covid restrictions has also fueled unrest.

It's an unlikely stretch to see Solomon Islands becoming a template for the world, but it shows there is a breaking point when you keep telling the people whoppers. A time comes when they don't believe a word you say. At that point you've lost control.

Big huge story #3
Would the U.S. defend Taiwan if China invades? Biden said yes. But it's complicated

The importance of this story isn't so much what Biden did or didn't say, or how much he can remember what he said, the importance of this story is that it is a national story in the US, and that Taiwan is slowly becoming a household name in the US, even though Americans still surely confuse it with Thailand.

That's interesting and funny. Though good on Biden for saying it. Why not? The 'ambiguity' has outlived it's usefulness - it only encourages China. Give the CCP leadership something to think about - do you want to risk losing your whole power stranglehold due to a war in Taiwan?

There's a big story on Reuters today - but it's one of those fancy presentation style ones that takes forever (more than a few seconds) to load so i lost patience with it. But got me thinking while i was waiting: the 'seize' an out-lying island might not be the way to go after all.

Although they could take Dong Sya (Pratas Is) without any trouble, and it would present US with a quandary over whether to defend it, the upshot would be that US would immediately take up positions around/on Taiwan to fortify it - making a full-scale invasion much more difficult, if not impossible.

Therefore, if China does act, it would likely go straight to a full invasion - then try to dig in.

The map of the Chinese sorties into Taiwan airspace are curious - basically all in the same area - around the south west - seems to be one flight south east of Orchid Island - but they're not exactly buzzing the 101. I'm no master war technician, but could this be a decoy strategy to drag focus down to this area while preparing for an invasion in a different spot? Maybe they will go straight for Taipei - the Palace Museum would be a great propaganda coup.

But let's take a look at what has happened in the last seven days:

Big huge story #1:
MEPs defy Chinese pressure with visit to Taiwan
In a defiant move against China, seven members of the European Parliament have landed in Taipei for a three-day official mission to discuss disinformation and foreign electoral intervention.

This is a pretty astounding development. It made barely a ripple in the media but I don't remember anything like this happening in the last 25 years. It's remarkable.

Big huge story #2
U.S. No Longer Lists Foreign Troops on Taiwan as Trigger for China Conflict
The latest Pentagon report on the Chinese military has omitted the scenario of foreign troops being deployed on Taiwan in a list of actions that the U.S. military assessed could trigger conflict from China.

This seems to be a proactive strategic and diplomatic move in response to recent reports (which should also be on this list) that US forces are in Taiwan training their military. If the US continues to acknowledge that this presence could cause a Chinese invasion, then it accepts some responsibility if indeed an invasion happens. But now that it no longer acknowledges that, it has covered its ass. This, in effect, indirectly communicates that the US does accept that Chinese military action in the near future is very possible.

Big huge story #3
Would the U.S. defend Taiwan if China invades? Biden said yes. But it's complicated

The importance of this story isn't so much what Biden did or didn't say, or how much he can remember what he said, the importance of this story is that it is a national story in the US, and that Taiwan is slowly becoming a household name in the US, even though Americans still surely confuse it with Thailand. The issue of Taiwan is forcing itself on to the world stage against the wishes of world leaders, similar to how the question of a lab leak forced its way. Biden would probably be thrilled if Taiwan just sank into the ocean so he didn't have to deal with it. But that ain't gonna happen. Sorry Joe.

And there are many more stories just in the last few days. Here in Japan, Taiwan is in the news every single day, and it's always due to the potential for conflict with China.

It looks like between right now and 2027, at the latest, is a critical period. I believe there's a Taiwan election in 2024, and China may want to wait to see if the KMT wins before taking action. There's also a US election that year, although that won't matter much.

There is a big wildcard here, and that is the economy. If the Chinese economy or social structure starts breaking down, watch out. And that really is the big question here, the economy. If the currency markets start going crazy or equities dive, anything goes. If this real estate debt crisis in China blows up and people start turning on local governments, watch out.

Could be for a lot of reasons - Covid lockdowns - winter storms - wars ...

Sounds simple - pity a few more politicians didn't have the moral courage to do it. But it's a good sign.

It is indeed, and it is yet another crack in the veneer of the status quo that has been so carefully maintained by the US and begrudgingly accepted by the CCP.

I don't know about Joe - the ambiguity stuff - we're past that now surely. Why is it so hard to speak simple truths? Taiwan is a country.

I never had any hope that Biden would somehow take any bold steps in any way on anything. Why can't the US elect a genuine, intelligent, brave leader? Trump was genuine, but cowardly and stupid. Biden is intelligent, but certainly not genuine nor brave.

Good on Reuters for reporting it.

I listen to a five minute English podcast of news headlines on NHK every morning, and more often than not Taiwan is in the news, and this is relatively new. It's a hot topic here now, at least on the NHK English channel. Of all the things in the world they could report on in that five minutes, Taiwan is probably the most frequently reported international story. Very interesting.

On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal cited U.S. government officials as saying that over two dozen U.S. special operations soldiers and support troops are stationed in Taiwan to provide military training for ground forces. In addition, U.S. Marines are working with Taiwan's naval forces in "small-boat training." The officials stated that the American forces have been in Taiwan for over a year.

In his editorial, Hu (Global Times editor) wrote that the presence of American soldiers would justify activating China's Anti-Secession Law to "destroy and expel" them. The article stressed that the presence of U.S. soldiers in Taiwan is "a red-line that cannot be crossed and that this would be an opportunity for China to realize "reunification by force."

Tick-tock-tick-tock ...

The small-boat training is interesting. I remember from an earlier article that speed-boats may play a crucial role in an invasion.

Unknown object? That's gotta be a Chinese sub or ship, right?

Alain Richard discussed the "essential contribution of Taiwan in the important field of human progress".

In March, the Chinese embassy in Paris warned against lawmakers meeting Taiwanese officials, prompting a rebuff from the French foreign ministry, which said French senators are free to meet whomever they wish when they travel.

Sounds simple - pity a few more politicians didn't have the moral courage to do it. But it's a good sign.

I don't know about Joe - the ambiguity stuff - we're past that now surely. Why is it so hard to speak simple truths? Taiwan is a country.

Good on Reuters for reporting it. Meanwhile back in the most locked-down freedom restricted country on earth their ex-PM's trip to world's biggest hotspot did not even make the public-funded ABC news website. Nothing. To this day they have still not done a single story of the possibility Covid was a lab-leak. More important was this story: Wagga Wagga records first Covid case in a year and the usual vax-hesitant vilifying.

"However, AIDA Taiwan on Thursday issued a formal protest on its Facebook page condemning the organizer for failing to discuss or inform it about the change, the "reckless" method of dealing with Chinese censorship, and it warned that it sets a bad precedent that could lead to the flags of other countries being banned as well." (emphasis added)

But, again, the reaction of other athletes sets a good precedent for dealing with this sort of interference. China does not hold all the cards here, nor do other governments.

Taiwan News: Limassol, Cyprus (Sept. 28) The event's organizer International Association for the Development of Apnea (AIDA) suddenly yanked the Taiwan flag from the leader board on its live-streaming broadcast without warning.

AIDA International President Alexandru Russu apologized to the Taiwan team for the sudden change, explaining the decision was made after live streaming was blocked in China and said there was no plan to restore the flag.

Typical spineless one-everything official.

AIDA Japan then issued a post on Facebook requesting the event's organizers to also remove Japan's flag (saying) .. "this is the only small resistance we can make against the horrible political interference."

"Only Taiwan is disadvantaged. We wish to share the pain with Taiwan" and "not allow politics to interfere in our sport."

Subsequently, athletes from Russia, the U.S., Croatia, the Netherlands, Australia, South Korea, France, Germany, and Slovenia also requested their flags be removed to show solidarity with their Taiwanese competitors.

Separately, i see Anonymous hacked official PRC websites and inserted pro-Taiwan stuff.

But the concern with Evergrande is that it could be Beijing’s Lehman Brothers, pushing a long-brewing catastrophe over the edge.
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Apart from a military perspective - is the Evergrande collapse something that will have world-wide implications economically? Or is the main impact limited to China?

The thing about totalitarianism is that it's institutionalized corruption - it's surprising that something like this hasn't happened sooner. Well it probably has, but it's been managed off-stage.

The trouble with Jack Ma and the tech companies is interesting too - though different.