But of course, this argument has been valid since at least Tienanmen Square. With each passing day, China has the upper hand.

But Biden won't do that, not unless there's something in the best interest of corporate US. It's all money.

What i'd like to see - and it's got to be America that does it, preferably in conjunction with several other countries, is go ahead and recognize Taiwan. Why not? It is a democratic country - the only reason it's not recognized is to appease a fascist totalitarian regime - which is no reason at all.

What's China gonna do? Yes they will carry on - they might even go to war over it - but inevitably they will go to war over Taiwan anyway whether countries recognize it or not - so call their bluff and draw a line in the sand. Let's get back to having some semblance of truth at the heart of global politics then make decisions from that fundamental principle. What's the alternative? Go on lying to make the CCP happy and watch free people get crushed by the machine?

This thread continues here

China toughens language, warns Taiwan that independence 'means war'

"BEIJING (Reuters) - China toughened its language towards Taiwan on Thursday, warning after recent stepped up military activities near the island that “independence means war” and that their armed forces were taking action to respond to provocation and foreign interference."

It's clear that China has the upperhand right now. All the US has is firepower. That's it. China has a growing economy compared to a US economy in taters. China has a relatively positive international image right now compared to what Trump left us with. China has a growing number of countries moving towards it and away from the US. It obliterated Hong Kong as the world stood by and pretended not to notice. It's engaging in genocide, complete with concentration camps, forced sterilization and cultural indoctrination, and the world seems to think that's all just dandy.

In short, right now, China is on top of the world and the US has fallen so far from grace that it's begging to be taken seriously with it's sanctions and empty threats. The most it can do is sail an aircraft carrier through the strait now and then in the hopes that it will scare China, which is laughable.

And they're smart. They know how to play the media. When is the last time anything backfired on China? Tiananmen Square? That was probably it. Even that didn't do them much, if any, harm. As long as they're growing economically and can buy off any potential critics, they're safe to do whatever the hell they want.

Sunday's operation involved 12 fighters, two anti-submarine aircraft and a reconnaissance plane, the ministry said. In both occasions, Taiwan's air force warned away the aircraft and deployed missiles to monitor them."

Didn't take long for China to test the waters under the Biden admin. The response from spokesman Ned Price seems tepid to me:

"We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure against Taiwan and instead engage in meaningful dialogue with Taiwan's democratically elected representatives."

Forget about urging 'meaningful dialogue' - not gonna happen. How much meaningful dialogue has gone on about the HK protesters being rounded up and jailed? Or the Uyghurs? My greatest fear is that China will invade Taiwan then all we will hear is half-hearted condemnations and calls for 'meaningful dialogue and a peaceful resolution' coming from the US and the UN.

We did predict it would start over the Pratas Islands - not that you would need to be Nostradamus to know that. The above development is worth watching closely - that's the sort of thing that could erupt in a very short timeframe.

I wonder how the investigation into Covid origins would progress during a war over Taiwan?

Good to see the move to normalize diplomatic/governmental visits - why not? Taiwan is a democratic country - we're supposed to support freedom - why keep bowing to totalitarianism?

It also flushes out the crossover academics such as Evan Resnick, who described it as a "provocative...chaotic...imprudent" move to "fling mud in China's eye" and make things "harder for the incoming Biden administration".

I would have thought it would make it easier for Biden. Yes it's a provocative decision but it's a moral one, and Biden didn't have to wear the flak from making it. He's just gotta hold the ground.

The old idea - that if we're nice to China and do lots of business with them then they will eventually open up and accept democracy - it's naïve at best and a demonstrable failure. Not gonna happen.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55628172 Contains interview with Tsai - she speaks pretty good English!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55606594 Pompeo comments

Injury report from trials:

"The Airman received second-degree burns (blisters) from an overexposure to the Active Denial System due to procedural errors.

Later whilst spruiking the weapon as 'non-lethal', the article says:

"For this technology to become lethal, the energy beam exposure would have to be sustained and prolonged."

So it is lethal. Just depends how long you train it onto someone. You've already immobilized them - if you want to fry 'em - just keep your finger on the trigger of your ray gun.

The report assures us that wont' happen due to changes made in the 'operating procedures'.

But these boxes are going to be everywhere, right out your window. You could have one 10 feet from your head while you sleep. How much research as really been done on this? I ask because, at higher power, the frequency for 5G is used as a weapon. Here are some links:

https://www.thefoghornexpress.com/post/the-5g-network-what-you-dont-know-can-kill-you

https://www.wired.com/story/why-5g-makes-reconsider-health-effects-cellphones/

jnlwp.defense.gov"The ADS, a non-lethal directed-energy weapon, projects a very short duration (on the order of a few seconds) focused beam of millimeter waves at a frequency of 95 gigahertz (GHz). " Recommended reading

https://www.electricsense.com/5g-radiation-dangers/

One thing that bugs me about 5G is that it is being installed in our backyards without any real public debate. This is part of the technology that will make self-driving vehicles possible. These things will be everywhere, absolutely everywhere, every 25 meters or so. Is that what we really want?

I can't imagine that pregnant women, newborns, and very young children who spend their entirety development years, meaning 24/7, within a literal stone throw of these things won't be at all affected. But of course we don't know because nobody has bothered to research that.

"The human head acts as a receiving antenna for microwaves in the low gigahertz frequency range. Pulses of microwaves in these frequencies can cause people to hear sounds, ... (suffer) headaches, nausea, hearing loss, lightheadedness and cognitive issues." All these symptoms were reported by the Havana subjects.

The PLA may or may not have used a version of this weapon to retake a mountain top in the Indian border dispute. If so, this would be the first known use in a conflict situation.

"China has conducted human testing on members of the People’s Liberation Army in hope of developing soldiers with biologically enhanced capabilities."

That's not surprising. If you're not bound by cumbersome ethics considerations then the sky's the limit so far as this kind of bio-tech goes.

I am in favor of some of the Trump administration policies, including some of those regarding China, but there's no denying that Trump is mentally ill. I could reference this recent article: https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/11/23/trump-mentally-unfit-president-column... But I don't think that's necessary.

The sources, who include a Taiwanese official familiar with the situation, said the official was Rear Admiral Michael Studeman. They were speaking on condition of anonymity."

My bet is China will just wait things out now - back to Plan A - the creeping assumption. Seems to have been a drop off in 'military exercises' since the election.

I'm not sure where this fits in. Perhaps because it's another example of explicit, physical intimidation on a remote island.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/19/taiwan-says-diplomat-injured-in-clash-with-ch...

"A Taiwanese government employee ended up in hospital in Fiji this month after two Chinese diplomats stormed into a reception trying to gather information on who was attending, Taiwan’s foreign ministry said on Monday.

The confrontation broke out on October 8 when the Taiwanese tried to stop the Chinese diplomats from taking photos of guests at the event to mark Taiwan’s National Day, a ministry spokeswoman said in a written statement."

That became one of those 'suppressed stories'. Which is a worry. Coz it's an insight as to what all Taiwanese could expect if the island fell.

Also haven't heard a reporter ask:

"Mr Biden, has there been a congratulatory call from Tsai Ing-wen - and if there has - did you take it?"

The answer to that simple question would tell us a lot.

We're in an interesting phase right now. Trump potentially thinking well if i can't have the Presidency, i'll light the fucking joint up!

Apart from Covid running wild and deploying troops on the street to put down protesters, another good way would be to start a war with China. He hasn't been a war-monger president - so hopefully he won't do it out of spite.

According to this poll, 86.4% of Taiwanese believe only the people of Taiwan have the right determine the nation's future. 73.4% support a military/cyber self-defense, bolstered by international forces. But nobody wants a war. Get ready - fight it if you have to - but don't start it.

Tsai seems pretty brainy, so she doesn't need my advice - for sure she's got her dudes working on the cyber-stuff like crazy. Defensively, offensively.

I wonder if there's a cyber piece-of-the-puzzle that China is waiting to fall into place...? Turn off the electricity, as Dan mentioned, being the Holy Grail. If i was Xi, and anywhere near close to achieving that - that would make me very patient.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/19/taiwan-says-diplomat-injured-in-clash-with-ch...

"A Taiwanese government employee ended up in hospital in Fiji this month after two Chinese diplomats stormed into a reception trying to gather information on who was attending, Taiwan’s foreign ministry said on Monday.

The confrontation broke out on October 8 when the Taiwanese tried to stop the Chinese diplomats from taking photos of guests at the event to mark Taiwan’s National Day, a ministry spokeswoman said in a written statement."

As you point out, it's location and relative international obscurity make it less likely that the US or other countries would support Taiwan in a confrontation over the island(s). This barely reported (so far) event could signal the beginning of a new aggressive strategy.

1. They are quite far from Taiwan, being 310 km southeast of HK

2. Taiwan, which has 250 coast guards on the island, needs to fly through HK airspace to get there - in fact the island is within HK airspace. That was fine before the CCP crackdown on HK, but it's not now.

3. They would be a sitting duck for the PLA to invade

4. There would be questions in the US and Taiwan about whether it was worth going to the trouble of defending

Interestingly, TT reported today that a recent UNI Air supply flight chartered by the military was refused permission to fly through HK airspace to get there due to "dangerous activities" being conducted in the area.

No information was given as to what these activities were or when they might end. Taipei is saying there are no dangerous activities that would prevent safe passage.

Is this the beginning of a blockade of the island?

If I'm the Chinese leadership i'd be biding for Biden to get in then resume the creeping control of global organizations that i'd been working on for the past couple of decades. The fact that Biden said he would rejoin WHO "on my first day as President" astonishes me. Who was clamoring for that? Apart from China. Why say that?

Then I'd pick my moment to invade Taiwan. Yes, the UN would release a statement condemning the invasion and saying 'conflicts should be resolved by peaceful means' - but do nothing. Game over.

What was he 'guilty' of? Taking photos of police massing on the HK border in preparation for the crackdown on HK, then sharing the photos on LINE.

My advice to anyone with pro-democracy views is: 'Don't go to China'.

If you're a politician spruiking the Belt and Road then you'll be fine - you'll be feted and flattered. But if you've posted support online for Taiwan, Honk Kong, Xinjiang, or Tibet, then it's gotten to the point where it's almost an act of stupidity to visit China.

That's quite provocative. It also gives an insight into the likely coalition if worse comes to worst.

Australia is the minnow-state there - some people argue Australia should not be putting its head on the China chopping block by participating in such activities since it has become so dependent on China money. There has been/will be economic consequences, but the question is: 'Are human rights more important than short term economic gain?'

For many leaders the answer to that is 'No.' I understand that reasoning, but glad to see it is being reappraised.

Well, that scenario has gotten a huge boost with Trump getting COVID, and perhaps a bump up on the calendar. If Trump becomes incapacitated and Pence is in charge, and the Senate is in disarray because a number of its members are out with COVID, or any number of other consequences of this whole mess throws US leadership into question, then China will have a clear window of advantage. In other words, right now, the US is in a weakened state, and it could get dramatically worse in coming weeks.

If Trump is taken out of the election, then we're looking at something that has never before happened in the US, a presidential candidate dropping out, willingly or not, weeks before the election. Millions of votes have already been cast.

Even if he does continue to run, he'll be out of action for at least ten days, and it appears that many people at the core of his team are now coming down with COVID. What a movie this will make! You can't make this shit up and make it believable.