Meanwhile, queensland has had torrential rain from a low pressure system that came in through the gulf then dragged its tail across the north east of the state - rain extended well inland. Highest fall on the mainland was 421mm in 24 hrs at Ayr. An island near there got 529.

Rainfall up to 150mm - that's a lot of rain for a place that, unlike Taiwan, doesn't have cement culverts everywhere to funnel off the deluge.

I'm wondering to what degree they take into account these knock off events and the extent to which they can influence the whole thing.

I suspect that's the hardest part to predict - leaves the door open to an unexpected escalation

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/south-east-queensland-smashed-by-t...

Big rain storm overnight that's still playing out. Places 100 km just north of here have copped 300mm+ and counting - that's typhoon level rain in areas that are not geared up for that. According to the BoM weather site some dams/rivers/creeks are at 'alert' level. Guess we'll find out the damage as the reports come in.

We've had about 120 mm here, which is not a bad level - tank-filler stuff - the rain band does look like it's moved east from here so hopefully we're more or less done

As an example of how climate impacts cascade, ash from bushfires that washed into rivers from rains over the past 10 days has resulted in "100's of thousands" of fish dying. According to reports, “From what I’ve seen I would not be surprised that it’s wiped out every fish in at least 100 kilometres of the river.”

That kind of impact can take eco-systems decades to recover from - providing there are no more events - which there will be.