"At first, the fires were manageable. Spot fires would ignite on the fringes and Laurence would floor his ute to the scene and extinguish each one before it could take hold.

Then, out of nowhere, a wind change sent flames barrelling towards the house. Nothing could have stopped them. From inside, you could see the fire licking at the windows from the outside.

The wind sounded like a freight train, rattling the glass. Outside, chaos. Everywhere. The smoke was so thick that breathing was impossible. Ash and dirt caught in the eyes. The horses broke loose and fled from the fire’s approach. But there was nowhere to go. At every corner of the house flames threatened. Somehow it stood. Everyone pitched in. The media crews here were on hoses, with Laurence and Claire barking orders above the roar of the wind.

Every so often, the smoke and the heat became too much and we ran inside for shelter."

Note: It's still 42C in Canberra city at 4pm

Extreme events are what we will experience, not the mean increase over time, and those extremes will, I think, have unforeseen knock-off effects, not only natural but also social and political.

Yes, that's the way i see it going. More like the sun passing through a magnifying glass and being focused on a certain area at a certain time to create the 'apocalypse now' effect at that location - with all of these events having the potential to trigger compounding effects.

For example with the Australian fires:
1. Massive amounts of C02 reducing trees transformed into a billowing bonfire of C02 emissions
2. Extended heatwave causing a spike in fossil fuel energy consumption due to increase in air conditioner use
3. Loss of habitats causing a crash in native animal populations (which may not increase temps but bloody sad none-the-less)

There was a lot of talk about the Indian Ocean dipole being the cause for the extreme conditions but that's been back to neutral now for over a month yet still we're getting searing heat. As a kid growing up in Victoria you might get a couple of days per year when the mercury nudged 40 - mid-40's were unheard of - but now they're relatively common

Good point. Extreme events are what we will experience, not the mean increase over time, and those extremes will, I think, have unforeseen knock-off effects, not only natural but also social and political.

I just talked with my mom in Ohio this morning, literally on the other side of the world, and she is reporting the same thing we're experiencing here -- a very mild winter. This is not extreme, but it begs the question of what next summer is going to be like. I guess we'll find out!

Here in northern nsw it's insanely hot but i can't seen any immediate fire danger due to the heavy rain last week and the sticky humidity. Temps this week running 5-7 C above ave.

Again, i'd question the thinking of climate change as being 1.5C warmer by whatever year. The way it seems to be working is that it's 6C above right now. It's more about when it cranks up than the overall mean temp. At 6 C above for an extended period, stuff starts to give. This can create knock-on effects such as a bump in C02 caused by the fire smoke

All this week, outside is virtually a 'no-go zone'. Went to do some shopping as it was too hot for anything - not surprisingly the shopping mall was packed with like-minded climate refugees. I wonder if people will be living in shopping malls in 10 years time and the outside world will be abandoned during summer?

I was talking with a coworker today who mentioned that the waters around Japan are a few degrees above normal. We've just had two days of straight rain that would normally be snow this time of year. I'll have to look into these ocean temperatures.

Yes, i'm curious about how the northern summer will go. This Australian summer is the kind of northern summer that i thought we might have had last year (but didn't) - the one that gives the general public the kick-up-the-backside it needs.

Having not heard of the Indian Ocean dipole before this fire season, it now seems all the rage. It's also an ocean temperature thing.

Seems the equation is:

Ocean current event + climate change = disastrous summer (either floods or drought/fire)

The question for me is: Is there a link between climate change and the ocean currents? For example, does the melting of ice impact the flow of currents? How else are currents influenced?

I was talking with a coworker today who mentioned that the waters around Japan are a few degrees above normal. We've just had two days of straight rain that would normally be snow this time of year. I'll have to look into these ocean temperatures.

I'd watch! That's right up there with the proposal to have leaders fight the wars themselves. Throw them in a cage and let them go at it. Let the rest of us kick back with a beer and popcorn.

https://youtu.be/oNlG9Mqksiw

One of the takeaways of all this that the world should acknowledge and consider is that climate change will bring fires to areas that don't normally burn. So people in, say, Oregon and Washington states may consider yearly fires to be a California thing, but those old rules no longer apply.

If there's a positive in this, it may be the wake up call Australians needed - maybe. I still wouldn't underestimate the capacity of at least half the population to not give a fuck or to spitefully wish to inflict disaster on future generations - kind of 'I'll be dead anyway so fuck it - let it burn!' attitude - especially with government members showing leadership like this:

“To try to make out as some politicians have to hijack this debate, exploit this tragedy and push their ideological barrow, that somehow or another the Australian government could have done something by reducing its carbon emissions that would have reduced these bushfires is just complete nonsense.” (Craig Kelly, government MP - from the Liberal Party, which is the supposedly the more moderate half of the Liberal/National conservative coalition government)

Typically, people like this say the problem was 'we didn't do enough fuel reduction burns'. This annoys the shit out of me on many levels, most of which i've discussed before. In their minds - and it's not just some dickhead politicians - they have large supporter bases - the overriding problem is trees. Get rid of all the trees and we won't have bushfires. We won't have a planet of course but at least we won't have bushfires.

Equally frustrating is the dearth in charismatic leaders on the environmental side of politics that have the ability to sell the 'save the planet' message to the public. The main flag bearer appears to be Greta Thunberg - unfortunately she's still too young to run for office

And when the fire seen ends, hopefully, in Australia, it will be starting up in California and other areas in the northern hemisphere. Spain and Portugal come to mind.

And the problems don't cease when the fires go out. In mountainous areas, the worry is landslides when the rains do come because there is no vegetation left to hold the soil. It looks like Australia's fires are mostly on flat land, but there will still be significant erosion in those areas not normally affected by fire.

One of the takeaways of all this that the world should acknowledge and consider is that climate change will bring fires to areas that don't normally burn. So people in, say, Oregon and Washington states may consider yearly fires to be a California thing, but those old rules no longer apply.

NSW: 16 (mostly Nov 8, Dec 30)
Vic: 2 (Dec 31)
SA: 1 (Dec 20?)

Others are still missing.

Tomorrow's forecast for that area is another 40C day plus 35kph northerlies then a gusty cool change. Despite the media and political hysteria, that's bad conditions, but not as bad as it was a couple of days ago. There will likely be more homes lost - certainly 1000's of hectares of forest burned - hopefully no more lives.

As for Dan's question about 'When will the climate change deniers admit they were wrong?' - i can answer that easily: Never

Just listening to talkback radio on the way back through the smoke haze from fishing with my brother today the airwaves were peppered with idiots saying the fires were all the fault of the greenies. The thing about being an idiot is that you will never admit you were wrong and you have zero interest in the truth.

50 properties in Victoria have been destroyed since Sunday while a further 176 homes were lost on the NSW south coast - most of them in day of carnage yesterday.

In the Bateman's Bay area, a popular and picturesque seaside district, more than 1000 people were trapped on a beach at Malua Bay for "almost 24 hours" as a fire ravaged their small town. 40 houses went up as they watched.

“Everyone was on the beach, just covered in ash and smoke. The winds got stronger and stronger and then about 10am you could hear what sounded like a big waterfall. The smoke got very heavy and to the northwest we started seeing spot fires appearing.

“Suddenly we turned around and the headland to the south burst into flame... There were these hot, hot swirling winds, heavy ash, heavy smoke. This bizarre red-orange glow.”

Holiday area of east Gippsland (i'm in south Gippsland) was shut down with major access road blocked. Residents and holidaymakers were urged to evacuate. A fire even broke out in the forested suburbs of Melbourne. Conditions were scary in all the southern states, including Tasmania which recorded record highs, but they did well to get through it without loss of life.

Have mentioned this before, but the southern states (SA, Vic, Tas) are streets ahead of nsw and qld in terms of dealing with extreme fire threats. Today's conditions were as bad if not worse than anything nsw or qld have faced in the last few months, but with a drastically mitigated outcome.

Still waiting on the cool change which is expected to swing the winds into the south at 40-50kph posing an additional short but intense threat before conditions ease tomorrow.

One firefighter was killed in nsw when two fire trucks rolled over, reportedly due to strong winds but would need to see that report confirmed - would question whether the winds were strong enough to flip fire trucks.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/30/one-firefighter-killed-australia...