Formosahut forum - Typhoon Nesat

Typhoon Nesat (reply)

dan — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 00:30:43 +0000

We had serious winds here at the hut last night, and it was amazingly clear. I think I saw five or six meteors in the course of 1/2 an hour... and I was sober.

It looks like we'll get some chunks of this storm breaking off and heading our way, possibly in the next 12-24 hours. If we do get heavy rain with this wind, we can always pretend we're in the heart of Nesat.

That formation of which you speak seems to have organized more overnight, but it's still not listed anywhere. And there looks to be plenty of activity beyond that. We had an unusually hot, dry summer; perhaps this will turn out to be a somewhat late but active typhoon season.

Typhoon Nesat (reply)

dulan drift — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 15:55:43 +0000

I'll be interested to see what happens when it makes land contact in ppe. My guess is that it will break up to some degree and some significant bits will drift up this way. If that reacts with the monsoon (dong bei ji fong) then it could produce some major rain on the east coast of Taiwan - though it's usually the north east that gets that effect the most coz the monsoon is drier down here. Still, i wouldn't be surprised if we get something significant here, while the north east could be in for some quite destructive falls.

Surprisingly windy tonight, even though the typhoon is so far away.

BTW,check out that system that has formed to the east (an slightly north) of nesat - not listed as anything but has sprung up suddenly and looks to be rotating and like it could become something and seems to be heading in our general direction. It might all so pick up something from the break up of nesat.

Re the formula for land and de-intensification - i assume the type of terrain would be a factor as well. Anyway, if it re-forms into anything over a cat 3 once it crosses ppe then i will eat my hat.

Typhoon Nesat (reply)

dan — Sun, 25 Sep 2011 07:13:16 +0000

Yea, it looks like it's heading directly west more or less. We'll still get rain though. This may be a good time to get some things planted. We just popped a bunch of qing jiang cai starters in the ground and they're quite happy with the rain we're getting now.

Regarding the interaction with land, I found this bit of information from the JTWC interesting:

TIME OVER LAND STILL WORKS OUT TO ROUGHLY 15 HOURS.
ACCORDING TO STATISTICAL ANALOGUES, A 15 HOUR OVER-LAND TRACK
RESULTS IN A FORTY PER CENT REDUCTION IN STORM INTENSITY, WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN TY NESAT EJECTING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) AT
80 KNOTS.

Typhoon Nesat (reply)

dulan drift — Sun, 25 Sep 2011 03:04:24 +0000

Well, it didn't get that bump to the north and i am not too hopeful now - that ridge is quite low down, very imposing, and i can't see any way through it - looks like the ppe is going to cop the brunt of it - we might get a bit of shrapnel at best. As for it reforming into a super typhoon after crossing ppe, i would be very surprised. They often say this but i have never seen it happen - the landfall takes too much out of it and then there just isn't enough space for it to gear up again to that level. Anyway, i now have no excuse for further delaying the digging up of my vegie patch and getting into the planting.

Typhoon Nesat (reply)

dan — Sun, 25 Sep 2011 00:35:16 +0000

Yes, it looks like we're almost certainly going to get some Nesat action. I think one of the earlier JTWC prognoses said it could reach super typhoon strength if it doesn't spend too much time over the Philippines and gets back out over warm water while it's still packing a punch. And it looks like it's moving fairly quickly, so we won't have to wait three weeks to find out what it's going to do.

Typhoon Nesat

dulan drift — Sat, 24 Sep 2011 07:50:08 +0000

Jumping the gun a little bit here as it's still only a TS, but it's one that bears watching. The thing will be whether it gets a bit of northern rise from its present position from the passing weakeness in the ridge to its north. If it does, then the massive high moving in after that should lock it into a trajectory towards us. Unlike most of the other typhoons we've seen this year, once this one is set on a course, i don't think it's going to wander too far off it as the high will give it a strong steering influence. Also looks to be a very decent size.