Neexxttt!

After two days of 90% rain forecast from the typhoon and getting nothing, and then it dropping to 30%, i finally went out to water the coffee plants last night - as soon as i finish it starts to rain.

Looks like Okinawa would have had a few things going bump in the night with Jelawat going right over them - that was really an impressive looking typhoon. The lesson for us was probably that when they stay east of us, there is very little rain that comes our way. Though the waves are massive - as big as i have ever seen them in this area.

See there's another low coming through on the production line - expected to drift north but a bit early to say for sure - worth keeping an eye on.

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It's still very much early days, but this is starting to look like it could pose a serious threat to Taiwan. October is already very late for a typhoon but i can remember a couple of big ones that have come through at this time of the year. This forecast is for a week ahead, so it's prone to change, but if it holds up then the position of the high to the north of the typhoon should steer it into our vicinity.

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And there is now that system west of the Philippines that the JTWC is now giving a high probability of developing into a TS. It would appear we'll get something out of one or the other of these storms.

It's looking increasingly like this system w of the Philippines is the one we need to worry about.

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Big change from yesterday's forecast. Now they have Maliksi racing off to the north and the one to the south west edging south. However, there appears to be yet another low coming through from the east - hard to say what it is going to do at this stage - but there still seems to be plenty of activity - the season is not quite done with yet.

Think the season might be over for us. Definitely a different pattern from last year where we had all those straight runners. This year we seem to have the runner-uppers with them all seeming to head due north. Don't think ppe has had a landfall typ all season, which must be unusual.

Anyway, we had a bit of excitement with Tembin making landfall just south of us, and also Saola and Jelawat throwing up some big winds and big waves that look to have seriously eroded the base of the hotel - so all in all it was a pretty good season. Now we go back to scouring the sat looking for the chance of some showers to water our gardens. On that level, it's shaping up as a very dry year.

It looks like there's one last chance of a storm coming our way. If this one doesn't make, I'd say that's it until next year.

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Yeah, this is probably the last roll of the dice and looks like it could go either way at the moment - north or west. Now that the dong bei ji fong has started, the cross winds are making it difficult for them to build into anything, but even some rain would nice. Just got back from a market trip to Tian Mu - it was raining - no-one was saying 'isn't it nice to get some rain' up there.

This is an interesting site showing the wind direction and velocity for Taiwan. Gives you some idea of how the typhoon interacts with the dong bei ji
http://www.surf-forecast.com/weather_maps/Taiwan?over=pressure_arrows&type=wind

Has basically stalled for the last 24 hrs. However losing a lot of it's structure, possibly coz of interaction with dbjf cross winds.

After several days of consensus modelling, interesting to note a bit of divergence creeping in. One model actually has it heading this way, though unless the dbjf drops off all of a sudden, i can't see that it could make it through.
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Interesting to note that the typhoon has retreated back to the south west in the last 12 hours. No one is predicting it to come here, but none of them really predicted its recent movement either.

I noticed that as well. That seemed to come out of nowhere. It looks like it's going to just mosey around for a day or two.

Fabulous site. I've added a link to it on the recreation page of the wiki under the Surfing heading.

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