Unrestrained Entitlement (General)

by dan, Thursday, July 28, 2022, 15:42 (631 days ago)

China says closely tracking rocket debris hurtling towards Earth

I think the subject and excerpts below say it all.

Remnants of a large Chinese rocket are expected to streak through the atmosphere this weekend in an uncontrolled re-entry that Beijing says it is closely tracking but poses little risk to anyone on Earth.

As occurred during its first two flights, the rocket’s entire main-core stage – which is 100 feet (30 metres) long and weighs 22 tonnes (48,500 pounds) – has already reached low orbit and is expected to tumble back towards Earth once atmospheric friction drags it downward, according to American experts.

Ultimately, the rocket body will disintegrate as it plunges through the atmosphere but is large enough that numerous chunks will likely survive a fiery re-entry to rain debris over an area some 2,000km (1,240 miles) long by about 70km (44 miles) wide, independent US-based analysts said on Wednesday.

The probable location of the debris field is impossible to pinpoint in advance, though experts will be able to narrow the potential impact zone closer to re-entry in the days ahead.

The overall risk to people and property on the ground is fairly low, given that 75 percent of Earth’s surface in the potential path of debris is water, desert or jungle, Aerospace analyst Ted Muelhaupt told reporters in a news briefing.

Nevertheless, the possibility exists for pieces of the rocket to come down over a populated area, as they did in May 2020 when fragments of another Chinese Long March 5B landed on the Ivory Coast, damaging several buildings in that West African nation, though no injuries were reported, Muelhaupt said.

OK, granted, I've had a couple cocktails but the following two bits make no sense to me at all. Can anyone clarify?

Overall, the odds of someone being injured or killed this weekend from falling rocket chunks range from one-in-1,000 to one-in-230, well above the internationally accepted casualty risk threshold of one-in-10,000, he told reporters.

But the risk posed to any single individual is far lower, on the order of six chances per 10 trillion.

That's copied and pasted from the article. WTF is the difference between someone and any single individual?

But let's back up and read this again: the odds of someone being injured or killed this weekend from falling rocket chunks range from one-in-1,000 to one-in-230

I'm guessing this is a typo. What a bullshit article. Countries can now hurl shit down on us with impunity. What's worse, the rest of the world is allowing China to now treat the people of the world like it treats its own citizens.

Unrestrained Entitlement

by dulan drift ⌂, Saturday, July 30, 2022, 08:23 (630 days ago) @ dan


Overall, the odds of someone being injured or killed this weekend from falling rocket chunks range from one-in-1,000 to one-in-230, well above the internationally accepted casualty risk threshold of one-in-10,000, he told reporters.

But the risk posed to any single individual is far lower, on the order of six chances per 10 trillion.

My guess is that my personal risk of being hit is the second one, while the chances of anyone on earth being hit is the former - though not sure if the math stacks up for that.

There does seem to be a lot of satellite junk around. I once had a 'rise of AI' story idea where every smart bomb was over-written with a 'return to sender' command. The result being more and more missiles are launched (and returning) with each side thinking they're from the enemy - until the world is blown up - or at least the militarized parts of it.

Would be good if that could happen with space-junk as well.

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