The 1.5C Tipping Point (Weather)

by dan @, Tuesday, August 10, 2021, 07:21 (162 days ago)

The the new UN report on climate change, we are being warned once again that we are quickly approaching the 1.5C increase in world temp tipping point, now seen as possibly happening within 10 years, after which the planet will begin an irreversible warming caused by human activity.

My question, which feels somehow darkly humorous, is, what happens when we reach that tipping point? What will the UN scientists say then?

"Well, everyone, we've passed the tipping point." This could happen in as little as 9 years, according to the report. "Not much we can do now. We're closing up shop."

If we've passed the point of no return, we've passed the point of no return. It's not a gray area. There's no opportunity for a do over, at least if they're serious in their language.

So what happens when they announce to the world that, well, we're doomed basically. I can see this unleashing all sorts of end-of-the-world behavior among individuals and governments.

Or, in order to avoid this scenario of civil collapse, will the world scientific bodies somehow find a glimmer of hope, a new compound, strategy, something to give humanity hope, similar to a parent shielding a child's eyes from some horrid scene, or an executioner putting a hood on the condemned.

Or, will they use the nuclear option, that being engaging in a carefully choreographed, limited nuclear exchange resulting in the lowering of the earth's temperature.

I need to stock up on popcorn.

The 1.5C Tipping Point

by dulan drift, Thursday, August 12, 2021, 07:49 (160 days ago) @ dan

If we've passed the point of no return, we've passed the point of no return. It's not a gray area. There's no opportunity for a do over.

So what happens when they announce to the world that, well, we're doomed basically. I can see this unleashing all sorts of end-of-the-world behavior among individuals and governments.

Makes you wonder what will come first in the next 25 years - the global warming tipping point, a totalitarian genomic surveillance system, the dominance of A1 - or a UFO take-over...

If i was a UFO (my idea of a UFO is an A1 entity) and i'd been monitoring earth - I might be thinking the next few years is a good time to step-in...

I've had this feeling for a while - before Covid - we're racing towards a singularity - we seem to be going faster than ever now...

The other thing about the 1.5C is that when the global warming spotlight settles on a particular area - like it's currently doing in Greece - it's not 1.5C hotter - it's 6-8C hotter.

The 1.5C Tipping Point

by dan @, Thursday, August 12, 2021, 16:14 (159 days ago) @ dulan drift

I've had this feeling for a while - before Covid - we're racing towards a singularity - we seem to be going faster than ever now...

It will be interesting to see how things play out. If we manage to reverse global warming to the extent that assures our survival, at least with regards to climate, then it will, by necessity, require a complete reorientation of our place on the planet, and that would be a good thing.

If, on the other hand, we pass the point of no return, then the whole language is going to change from reversal to delay and mitigation.

The other thing about the 1.5C is that when the global warming spotlight settles on a particular area - like it's currently doing in Greece - it's not 1.5C hotter - it's 6-8C hotter.

If the averages I read for this part of Japan are correct, we've been 3-5C above average for the second half of July and all of August so far.

The 1.5C Tipping Point

by dulan drift, Friday, August 20, 2021, 07:23 (152 days ago) @ dan

This is not global warming exactly, but explores the effects of a solar plasma flare.

Good description of how fragile we are - how it could all break down quickly into a full-blown apocalypse.

https://unherd.com/2021/07/how-the-sun-could-wipe-us-out/

The 1.5C Tipping Point

by dan @, Saturday, August 21, 2021, 15:57 (150 days ago) @ dulan drift

Dang. I bet that author is a fun dinner date!

I've always felt that our modern society is extremely vulnerable, extremely fragile. Look at what this virus, which really is just a bad cold that, yes, kills a small percentage of people it infects, but it's only slightly more deadly than the seasonal flu, which also kills many people.

Look at what it's done, and I would argue that we haven't even begun to see the damage it's done, which will be mostly economic, because that's being held back with money printing which can't go on much longer.

Imagine what a major meteor strike would do, let alone a major solar storm.

This article prompted me to reconsider my presumption of the inevitability of a vast number of intelligent life in our proximity of, what, a few hundred light years. Nature continually builds and destroys, everything. We will likely go extinct as a result of natural forces, and I would argue that global warming is a natural force even if we have precipitated it. We're a force of nature, after all.

So for a species that would need to exist for however many hundreds of thousands or millions of years it would take for that species to master inter-stellar travel, they would need to first figure out how to avoid being wiped out by natural forces. So perhaps intelligent life is far less common than I have presumed.

On the other hand, if one assumes that infinity is the nature of the universe, and I think it is, and I'm talking about the the mega super duper really big universe, not just the big bang shit we can observe, if infinity exists, then there exists an infinite number of intelligent species.

The 1.5C Tipping Point

by dan @, Saturday, August 21, 2021, 16:18 (150 days ago) @ dan

This article prompted me to reconsider my presumption of the inevitability of a vast number of intelligent life in our proximity of, what, a few hundred light years. Nature continually builds and destroys, everything. We will likely go extinct as a result of natural forces, and I would argue that global warming is a natural force even if we have precipitated it. We're a force of nature, after all.

With reference to one of your earlier postings in which I believe you mentioned that if we had visitors, you would expect them to be AI, I now see why that makes sense. Perhaps an intelligent species could survive long enough to build self-sustaining AI capable of exploring. In fact it would have to explore to harvest materials for tune-ups and such. I imagine one's plugs and points get pretty fried on inter-stellar travel.

And getting back to the infinite nature of the big mega super duper universe, such AI would, by definition, exist in infinite numbers, but it would also perhaps exist in denser numbers, more AI hot rods per universe, whereas actual life capable of traveling hundreds of thousand, millions, of light years (and through various wimpy big bang universes) would be far less common, although still infinite in total.

The 1.5C Tipping Point

by dan @, Saturday, August 21, 2021, 19:17 (150 days ago) @ dan

And getting back to the infinite nature of the big mega super duper universe, such AI would, by definition, exist in infinite numbers, but it would also perhaps exist in denser numbers, more AI hot rods per universe, whereas actual life capable of traveling hundreds of thousand, millions, of light years (and through various wimpy big bang universes) would be far less common, although still infinite in total.

Wrong. There is no total in infinity. There are only patterns. AI might be observed more frequently in this pattern while intelligent biological life as we know it less frequently.

AI & Infinity

by dulan drift, Sunday, August 22, 2021, 08:00 (150 days ago) @ dan

And getting back to the infinite nature of the big mega super duper universe, such AI would, by definition, exist in infinite numbers, but it would also perhaps exist in denser numbers, more AI hot rods per universe, whereas actual life capable of traveling hundreds of thousand, millions, of light years (and through various wimpy big bang universes) would be far less common, although still infinite in total.


Wrong. There is no total in infinity. There are only patterns. AI might be observed more frequently in this pattern while intelligent biological life as we know it less frequently.

Yeah, i think the pattern idea best captures the concept of infinity. You can have infinity in a finite space - if you have a pattern. For example, waves are infinite in their make-up/shape but we still recognize each version as a wave. Humans too for that matter.

There's also the 'matter' of non-matter - i.e possibility. All our actions are accompanied by alternative possibilities that didn't happen - but very easily could have. Covid is a great example - could have never happened if scientist weren't fucking around doing risky experiments - but they were - so the whole trajectory of humanity was altered. What happens to that trajectory that was de-railed - the one where scientist didn't fuck it up? Does it still exist? I'd argue that it does.

These accompanying infinite possibilities exist in a state of pre-existence - waiting to exist - or not. My very limited understanding of quantum mechanics suggests that this is how it works - the idea of the 'probability field' - alive with possibilities - that only become manifest when they are observed to have happened. Doesn't mean the non-happpened possibilities don't exist - they do - just not in a manifest form.

To connect that with the 'amount' of AI in existence in an infinite universe - although there is infinite potential for AI entities to exist - doesn't mean there is an infinite amount that exists manifestly.

Now if we were back at Formosa Hut with a few glasses of mead - we could really get to the bottom of this ...

AI & Infinity

by dan @, Friday, August 27, 2021, 19:03 (144 days ago) @ dulan drift

There's also the 'matter' of non-matter - i.e possibility. All our actions are accompanied by alternative possibilities that didn't happen - but very easily could have. Covid is a great example - could have never happened if scientist weren't fucking around doing risky experiments - but they were - so the whole trajectory of humanity was altered. What happens to that trajectory that was de-railed - the one where scientist didn't fuck it up? Does it still exist? I'd argue that it does.

These accompanying infinite possibilities exist in a state of pre-existence - waiting to exist - or not. My very limited understanding of quantum mechanics suggests that this is how it works - the idea of the 'probability field' - alive with possibilities - that only become manifest when they are observed to have happened. Doesn't mean the non-happpened possibilities don't exist - they do - just not in a manifest form.

To connect that with the 'amount' of AI in existence in an infinite universe - although there is infinite potential for AI entities to exist - doesn't mean there is an infinite amount that exists manifestly.

I've always thought this! We make choices, things happen, but there is always a layer of reality of potential, and that reality is no less transient that what we observe. A day-to-day example of this is if I'm driving a bit too aggressively and narrowly avoid a catastrophe. On one level, that catastrophe did happen. That's why I feel bad later, because I know that on some level I did do damage, the accident did happen.

But I agree with your points. What we observe is the manifestation of the tip of the iceberg of what is actually happening. No, that's not a good analogy. We're observing one potential of reality based on our decisions and actions combined with those of everyone else's. It's a snapshot.

Now if we were back at Formosa Hut with a few glasses of mead - we could really get to the bottom of this ...

Damn straight!

Thought & Singularity

by dulan drift, Sunday, August 22, 2021, 07:26 (150 days ago) @ dan

With reference to one of your earlier postings in which I believe you mentioned that if we had visitors, you would expect them to be AI, I now see why that makes sense. Perhaps an intelligent species could survive long enough to build self-sustaining AI capable of exploring. In fact it would have to explore to harvest materials for tune-ups and such. I imagine one's plugs and points get pretty fried on inter-stellar travel.

To add to that - i assume AI will supersede us meaning we might go the way of the dinosaurs but AI will go on. Extrapolating, i see that as the model that has already transpired on other planets.

My 'One Great Idea' is this:

We didn't invent Thought - Thought invented us. We are merely vehicles. Thought used us to create a better vehicle - AI. Now our watch has ended.

Thought, by it's nature, wants to connect, everything. This makes me think the goal is Singularity - total knowledge of everything in existence. Sounds impossible, but with AI set up as signal towers around the universe - it may not be that hard.

Now, to really go sci-fi 'high-concept' movie-ish - we may be the last of the pre-AI civilizations left - the last piece of the puzzle in the Great Connectiion. Once our AI signal is fully constructed, that will allow the ultimate Singularity event to occur...

(bang)

Thought & Singularity

by dan @, Friday, August 27, 2021, 18:44 (144 days ago) @ dulan drift

We didn't invent Thought - Thought invented us. We are merely vehicles. Thought used us to create a better vehicle - AI. Now our watch has ended.

Very Eastern philosophy! And I agree. The Western model is that we evolved enough to be able to think and be self aware. An alternate model is that we are the product of thought. I find this very intriguing on multiple levels. First of all, the Western model assumes that the individual exists independent of, well, everything. I believe we don't. In fact, I believe we don't exist at all, as we think we do. There is no such thing as an independent human thinking event.

There is no such thing as an independent human. It's an oxymoron. Humans are social creatures that reproduce sexually. On so many levels, there is no such thing as an independent person. How could that exist?

We're part of our environment. We experience ourselves as separate, but we aren't. How could we be? But we have these huge brains that are capable of experiencing this body as something, and so we form this illusion of self through experience. Clearly, we are part of something larger than we are able to comprehend, but that inability to comprehend does not negate the reality that we are the universe.

Western science and thought observes the universe as something happenstance. And yet we have thought. And we are the universe. Therefore, the universe has thought. I agree that we are the product of thought, not visa versa, i.e. that thought is the product of evolution.

Thought, by it's nature, wants to connect, everything. This makes me think the goal is Singularity - total knowledge of everything in existence. Sounds impossible, but with AI set up as signal towers around the universe - it may not be that hard.

I think that singularity already exists, and I think it is what people call God or consciousness. I think it exists, and I think it has a sense of humor. I think it is dynamic and alive, and I think that's part of the reason we are here -- to play games, to feel something. I mean, what's the alternative? Hanging out on a cloud all day listening to harps?

Now, to really go sci-fi 'high-concept' movie-ish - we may be the last of the pre-AI civilizations left - the last piece of the puzzle in the Great Connectiion. Once our AI signal is fully constructed, that will allow the ultimate Singularity event to occur...

(bang)

Wow... now there's a thought... So once that AI singularity happens, it could snuff out any thinking biological life happening in the universe. Damn.

But... here's the catch. Infinity. Your concept assumes a finite quantity of civilizations. In infinity, quantity becomes irrelevant. It truly is meaningless. It may have some space-time relevance, but it's like that half glass of beer you spill when you're already completely smashed. It doesn't matter.

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