War in Taiwan 2021 - Formosahut forum

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TT: The Chinese threat to invade Taiwan is serious and more imminent than many understand, the US admiral chosen to lead the Pentagon’s Indo-Pacific region said on Tuesday.

US Navy Admiral John Aquilino: “My opinion is that this problem is much closer to us than most think and we have to take this on. The Chinese Communist Party has generated some capabilities in the region that are designed to keep us out."

Looking at it from Australia's angle, the entanglement with China through manufacturing is massive. Is it big enough to prevent Australia taking sides should it come to war?

The major hardware store in Australia is called Bunnings. They arrived on the scene about 30 years ago. They introduced a model of mega-stores and bulk buying and their slogan was "we'll beat any competitors' price by 10%". They were popular with customers coz of cheaper prices and a large range. They still have the same slogan but it's kind of a moot point coz Bunnings won - there are no competitors to beat anymore - they all collapsed. Plus Bunnings have mostly their own exclusive brands now - the 10% slogan stipulates that it must be the 'same stocked brand'.

The thing is, i'm only guessing here, but conservatively, 70% of Bunnings' stock is manufactured in China - including all power tools.

What's going to happen if there's a war with China? If Australia does take even a moral stand, all those shelves in Bunnings are going to empty overnight. You can then multiply that by a bunch of other stores reliant on China for products. How does Australia function without these daily-life essential goods?

We've mentioned it before but it bears repeating. Democratic countries must urgently start decoupling from China. We weren't doing a roaring trade with the Soviet Union and cooperating on biodefense research - it's insane that we are doing it with China.

What's going to happen if there's a war with China? If Australia does take even a moral stand, all those shelves in Bunnings are going to empty overnight. You can then multiply that by a bunch of other stores reliant on China for products. How does Australia function without these daily-life essential goods?

Exactly, and it's no mistake that the west is in this position. China has played it's cards very well. But I think this goes even further. China is applying this model of economic entrapment on Taiwan directly, so that any attempt at independence would result in economic suicide. The real litmus test will be how younger generations react to China's carrot of jobs for Taiwanese college grads, preferential treatment for same with regards to visas, taxes, etc. The same goes for China's carrots and sticks that Taiwan farmers have to navigate.

The bottom line is that China has the money, and nobody wants to mess with that. They just want some of it.

The bottom line is that China has the money, and nobody wants to mess with that. They just want some of it.

Yeah it's as simple as that. People will say 'oh, well, that's the real world' - but that's admitting to appeasing totalitarianism for money. Hope they're ok with having that as their epitaph.

Meanwhile:

News.com: There are fears a mass incursion of Beijing’s secretive ‘Maritime Militia’ into a South China Sea reef may lead to the construction of yet another artificial island fortress.

Philippines senator Risa Hontiveros: “China is gaslighting us. China is making it appear as if we are hallucinating. We are tired of their attempts to twist the truth for the sake of advancing their self-interests."

It's interesting with the fishermen militia. There have been a lot of incidents involving Chinese fishermen in the last few years. I'm not a war historian so i don't know if that's a normal battle tactic or a new thing China has invented?

TT: The military tracked Chinese warplanes and responded as they encroached on Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) twice in the past four days, the Ministry of National Defense said yesterday.

The Japanese Ministry of Defense said that it also identified two Y-9 aircraft — one configured for reconnaissance and the other for electronic warfare — to Taiwan’s east.

I'm not sure what 'electronic warfare' means - a plane that can disrupt electronic signals?

Anyway, along with cyber-warfare, this will be a big part of any future wars - maybe the main part.

These incursions appear to be getting more frequent and happening on a larger scale. But is there a database or graph that can show this? Certainly there is. I'd like to see a visual representation of the rates and scale of incursions over, say, the last 30 years or so. You know they exist.

But is there a database or graph that can show this? Certainly there is. I'd like to see a visual representation of the rates and scale of incursions over, say, the last 30 years or so. You know they exist.

I remember you posting that the Taipei Times was talking about the online launch of just such a thing by the Dept of Defense - but there was no link and it proved unfindable - i also tried.

My understanding is it's a near daily occurrence - kind of a confusion campaign - but has there been an uptick? It would be good to know.

The airspace violations seem to be happening in the south west - around Dong Sya basically. Taiwan missile defense does lock onto them - i wonder what the protocol is for pulling the trigger?

30 years of data would take in the 1996 situation when CCP was firing missiles over Taipei's head.

If i was CCP and i'd decided to take Taiwan by force, then i'd consider a pre-emptive strike on Guam and Marshall Islands. Strategically it makes sense.

That's an interesting thought. I think Guam would backfire because it would result in Americans, most of whom can't find Guam on map, rallying behind a war with China, wherever it happens.

But the Marshall Islands is an interesting strategy. It would certainly serve as a distraction and suck resources away from Taiwan. So I think those would be two very different scenarios. Guam would backfire, but the Marshall Islands, I don't know.

Now, a third possibility is that they just say, to hell with it, and attack Okinawa. That's where all the very close military forces are that would be responding to a Taiwan attack. I mean, if they attack Guam, they've waged war the the US, so if they're going to go that far, why not hit Guam and Okinawa?

Yet another scenario is that they cause some sort of resource sucking event somewhere that doesn't make them look like the bad guy, whatever that is. Cyber attack maybe?

But the biggest likelihood, I think, is a false flag event in which they stage an attack by Taiwan or US forces against some poor, lonely Chinese Coast Guard vessel just out there making sure the world is safe from killer turtles and such. This would: 1) allow them to respond 'defensively' by attacking Taiwan, 2) put the US on the defensive, basically complicating any response, and 3) rally Chinese people behind their military actions.

I hope the Pentagon read your last post coz i think it covered most of the eventuations.

Yet another scenario is that they cause some sort of resource sucking event somewhere that doesn't make them look like the bad guy, whatever that is. Cyber attack maybe?

That's the old Sun Tsu technique: The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.

You could say that's already been achieved in Hong Kong, with a lot of help from Covid.

The number of western academics insisting China is "open and transparent" would be another example. This is the handiwork of the United Front Work Department, leaching into society. When it comes to a debate over whether to fight for Taiwan, these voices of appeasement could be influential.

Prof Hugh White: (I)t doesn’t follow that either America or Australia should therefore go to war with China to defend Taiwan. I think it’s clear that Australia would be better off staying out of it. Iraq should have taught us that it makes no sense to support an ally in a war it can’t win, and the stakes are much higher this time.

The other thing with cyber-warfare that we've mentioned before is that it's totally covert. We know roughly how much military hardware each country has but we don't know how many pieces of a cyber-attack are in place.

But the biggest likelihood, I think, is a false flag event in which they stage an attack by Taiwan or US forces against some poor, lonely Chinese Coast Guard vessel just out there making sure the world is safe from killer turtles and such. This would: 1) allow them to respond 'defensively' by attacking Taiwan, 2) put the US on the defensive, basically complicating any response, and 3) rally Chinese people behind their military actions.

They seem to be doing their best to provoke an accidental 'trigger incident' but yeah, maybe they'll get tired of waiting and just stage one.

Then there's this:

Lyle Goldstein, research professor, Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute: I think China now has adequate forces, including air, missile, electronic warfare, spec ops, naval, undersea and nuclear, to likely prevail in the first phase and perhaps in subsequent phases too.

If China does manage to invade Taiwan, it will be very hard to get them out - not without a lot of death. Before i thought it was a matter of 'Will democratic countries stand up to defend Taiwan?' - hadn't thought much about losing if they do. But it's quite possible.

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Niall Ferguson, Stanford University historian and author: He who rules Taiwan rules the world.

Let's put the sexism aside for one moment - Taiwan is currently ruled by a 'she' - a very smart she - but it's indicative of the drums of war we're suddenly hearing post Covid.

China Sends A Record 28 Military Planes Into Airspace Controlled By Taiwan

This is quite literally an escalation. This wasn't just a slight, momentary invasion of air space. They went about half way around Taiwan then went back on the same route.

The latest flights included 20 Chinese fighter jets, four H-6 bombers (a variant of which is nuclear capable), several early warning planes and an anti-submarine aircraft, according to Taiwan's defense ministry.

A defense ministry graphic showed that the planes followed a similar route to previous flights, flying to the southeast between the southern tip Taiwan and the Pratas Islands, which Taipei controls. Some then turned northeast, flying on the far side of the island before backtracking and heading home.

I notice that they always approach the southwest of Taiwan. I'm guessing that's because the coast in that region is more hospitable to invasion. It could also be because Taiwan has a major military presence in Pingtung. Hsinchu, I believe, is the closest point of Taiwan (aside from outlying islands) to China, but the coast is gnarly.

In the last week the so called 'Rock Solid' support the Biden Admin promised for Taiwan seems to be crumbling somewhat.

Kurt Campbell, White House Policy Coordinator for the Indo-Pacific: We support a strong unofficial relationship with Taiwan. We do not support Taiwan independence. We fully recognize and understand the sensitivities involved here.

Global Times: The statement by Campbell seems to bring the US policy regarding the Taiwan Straits to the right track.

If the Global Times is praising you, that's a worry.

Then the White House removed a tweet that had included the Taiwan flag. This was interpreted as another kowtow.

Jen Psaki: This was an honest mistake (and) we remain committed to the one-China policy.

It's not clear if deleting the tweet was an honest mistake or using the Taiwan flag - sounds like the latter.

Now we've got Kissinger (always pro-China) weighing in with calls to re-enact the Nixon summit - which at it's core involved a recognition of China's claim over Taiwan.

All these things add up to the emergence of a disturbing pattern. Yes war with China is a grave matter - not something to rush into - but so is appeasement and selling out HK and Taiwan. Surely the White House with their masters of slippery language could have found other ways to phrase things rather than a direct slap-down to Taiwan independence.

I noticed most of that action and had the same reaction, though I hadn't seen the Kissinger bit. My father always said that if you can't say something nice about someone, don't say anything at all. So I won't say anything about Kissinger.

But I wouldn't read too much into the recent placating tone of the Biden administration. What really matters are actions, and the US, as far as I know, hasn't changed course in it's willingness to sell arms or regularly exercise right of passage through the Taiwan Strait. If they were to start cancelling arms sales or quasi-official visits or the regular presence of it's navy in the Strait, then I'd be concerned.

This could just be politics, a biding of time for some reason. Words are cheap.

Royal Navy: The green berets and A Company of the 2nd Battalion carried out patrols before Chinooks and landing craft brought in waves of troops, armoured vehicles and artillery to shore for the main thrust inland, all with Australian Tiger attack helicopters in support overhead.

(Australia is) training with allies from the USA, Canada, Japan, Republic of Korea, and New Zealand.

Interesting collection of allies

Talisman Sabre has been scaled back this year because of Covid-19 guidelines, with a maximum of 2,000 troops from outside Australia taking part in the exercises around the Shoalwater Bay Training Area and Townsville - around 150 miles south of where the marines have been training so far

That sounds a bit dumb. We're having the exercise due to the heightened threat of war with China which has resulted from the advent of Covid - but you're scaling back training due to Covid?

There is a Chinese spy ship just off the coast of Queensland monitoring the exercises - not surprisingly.

There is a Chinese spy ship just off the coast of Queensland monitoring the exercises - not surprisingly.

That's not a spy ship. It's a fishing vessel, like these! They heard you had some reef that they hadn't shat on yet, so they thought they have a look.

UK to permanently deploy two warships in Asia Pacific

"Plans for the high-profile visit by the UK carrier strike group come as London deepens security ties with Tokyo amid tensions in the South China Sea."

This strikes me as sort of a big deal, it being a permanent deployment and all. That's quite a commitment. And yet it's a story that doesn't seem to be getting much attention.

"The British carrier, which is carrying F-35B stealth jets on its maiden voyage, will dock at Yokosuka, the home of Japan’s fleet command and the USS Ronald Reagan, the only forward-deployed US aircraft carrier."

That's right in our neighborhood.

"The British ships will not have a permanent base, a spokesperson at the British Embassy in Tokyo said when asked which ports the Royal Navy ships would operate from."

So, a permanent deployment, but not a permanent base. That strikes me as a political, bureaucratic dodge of sorts. If it's a permanent deployment, they will have a de facto permanent base, even if it's not defined as such on paper.

UK to permanently deploy two warships in Asia Pacific

This strikes me as sort of a big deal, it being a permanent deployment and all. That's quite a commitment. And yet it's a story that doesn't seem to be getting much attention.

Interesting. Hopefully it's a sign they're thinking how to thwart an invasion. If China gets into Taiwan it will be hard to get them out without a bloodbath.

Does have that clock-ticking feel to it as well.

You wonder how long you'd have to react if China made a move.

From China's point of view they'd nearly have to take out any aircraft carriers in the area first to increase the chance of a successful invasion - as well as hit bases in Japan.

Anyway, sounds for sure Japan is locked in. Got your bomb-shelter built yet?

I'm assuming the main invasion of Taiwan would come straight across the strait onto the west coast?

Does have that clock-ticking feel to it as well.

It's a weird dynamic. On the one hand, it pushes the clock forward in that it escalates, on the other it pushes it back as it gives reason for pause, by China that is.

You wonder how long you'd have to react if China made a move.

All depends on what move. I'm beginning to think this raises the stakes that China will start something geographically removed from Taiwan to sap resources from the US and its allies. It might be an escalation on disputed islands, or somewhere else in the world. Or, this might play out entirely on a proxy location. No doubt they're calculating their moves. China is predicted to grow at 8% this year. They can do whatever the fuck they want.

From China's point of view they'd nearly have to take out any aircraft carriers in the area first to increase the chance of a successful invasion - as well as hit bases in Japan.

Or have those resources distracted. They don't need to destroy them, just make them impotent with regards to defending Taiwan.

I'm assuming the main invasion of Taiwan would come straight across the strait onto the west coast?

Southwest coast, and they'd hit the air bases in Hsinchu first, along with all communications everywhere. They also seem to have an interest in the north/northeast coast. I'm guessing a two-pronged attack on Taipei, if needed, but how do they land? Not hospitable coasts in that area. So maybe they're looking at Keelung as possible access for deployment to Taipei.

Taiwan News: Former Deputy Defense Minister Chang Che-ping (張哲平) on Wednesday (July 28) rejected allegations that he had divulged secrets to a spy ring working for China.

According to Mirror Media, Chang has attended dinners with members of such a spy ring on several occasions, while his wife has allegedly traveled to Hong Kong at their invitation. As a result, the investigators of a spy ring managed by a Hong Kong businessman have focused their attention on Chang’s activities

This is an aspect that worries me. The military in Taiwan has traditionally been a KMT stronghold - for sure China would have used that to foster connections with high ranking officers - do they have any of them in their pocket?

There was a story a few years ago predicting a 3-day capitulation in the event of an invasion due to certain Taiwanese generals with questionable affiliations. Hopefully they've weeded them out since then.

This is an aspect that worries me. The military in Taiwan has traditionally been a KMT stronghold - for sure China would have used that to foster connections with high ranking officers - do they have any of them in their pocket?

There was a story a few years ago predicting a 3-day capitulation in the event of an invasion due to certain Taiwanese generals with questionable affiliations. Hopefully they've weeded them out since then.

That's always been a question I've had as well. With the history of the Taiwan military being pro-China, culturally speaking at least, how would a conflict play out?

Or is the military culture slowly changing?

Nearly 30 years ago I was teaching English to officers on a military base in Taiwan, and I remember one officer making the comment in class that if Taiwan ever claimed independence, he'd fight for China. I wasn't shocked that he felt that way, knowing that the military was pro-China, but I was that he had the confidence to make such a bold statement publicly, in class, on a military base. Clearly he had no fear of punishment, implying that it was the expected, or at least accepted, view among officers and in the military generally at the time.

But that was a long time ago, and a lot has happened since then, so I sort of assume, or hope at least, that Taiwan's military would actually defend Taiwan.

Jennifer Zeng 曾錚
@jenniferatntd
·
Aug 2
This is a big deal. #China watchers, investors & police/decision makers, pay attention: #CCP has stopping issuing ordinary #passports & other entry & exit documents if u don't have "essential or emergent reasons". This means the #CCP is closing its door again.

The reason cited in this report is to "protect people's health, life safety, and effectively prevent the importation of foreign #epidemics ( #CCP Virus, #COVID19 "
http://society.people.com.cn/n1/2021/0730/c

Might be another tick of the war-clock towards midnight ...

Jennifer Zeng seems to be a CCP escapee. She reads Chinese bulletins/media - watches closely - has up to date info that's she's translating into English.

This is the worrying thing we were talking about. Hopefully he's a just a sidelined yesterday's man having an emotional reaction - though he does represent a powerful group - a small minority - but powerful.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4261383

After COVID cases spiked in Taiwan, retired general Kao An-kuo (高安國) decked himself out in camouflage fatigues, wireframe sunglasses, and a blue beret to release a video on June 7 titled, "A letter from the 'General An-kuo Unification Forum' to brothers in the Army, Navy, and Air Force."

He accused the Taiwan government of slandering China and "maliciously rejecting the mainland vaccine." He blamed the new outbreak and deaths on Taiwan's rejection of China's vaccines, and asserted that if the DPP is allowed to continue with its "foolish acts," Taiwan will be reduced to a "hell on Earth."

Kao urged Taiwan's generals to rise up "for the sake of national righteousness" and to "save the people of Taiwan from turmoil." In an apparent reference to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Kao said that when "D-Day" arrives, Taiwan's armed forces "must respond by overthrowing this DPP scam ring in one fell swoop."

Either he, or the translator, is using language very similar to Trump's. No doubt it will resonate with some.

Nobody thought Trump would win. Group think is a frightening thing.

Reuters: This year's report said that China can launch what it termed "soft and hard electronic attacks", including blocking communications across the western part of the first island chain, the string of islands that run from the Japanese archipelago, through Taiwan and down to the Philippines.

China "can combine with its internet army to launch wired and wireless attacks against the global internet, which would initially paralyse our air defences, command of the sea and counter-attack system abilities, presenting a huge threat to us".

Chinese spies in Taiwan could launch a "decapitation strike" to destroy political and economic infrastructure.

Doesn't sound very rosy. China turns off the internet then launches a "decapitation strike". Hopefully they're working on plans to thwart that.

Well, shit. A couple excerpts that stand out for me are:

This year's report said that China can launch what it termed "soft and hard electronic attacks", including blocking communications across the western part of the first island chain, the string of islands that run from the Japanese archipelago, through Taiwan and down to the Philippines.

I wonder what the hard electronic attacks would be. There are undersea cables that supply Taiwan's Internet. They run south of the island. An earthquake in... 2006? severed those lines after the Taiwan split and it partially knocked out the Internet to Hong Kong for weeks. Since then I imagine much traffic has gone satellite, but most is still almost certainly cable.

Or are they talking about disabling stations? Interesting.

Chinese spies in Taiwan could launch a "decapitation strike" to destroy political and economic infrastructure, it added.

There must be literally thousands of Chinese spies in Taiwan, not counting KMT sympathizers.

Regarding KMT sympathizers, I think one of my posts we lost in the recent meltdown was regarding the historic KMT/military relationship, and resulting pro-China leaning of the Taiwan military. I mentioned this in that lost (I think) posting, so apologies for any redundancy, but...

When I taught English at a military academy in Taiwan, I once heard the class leader announce to the class (all officers) that if Taiwan declared independence, he would fight for China. Wow, I thought to myself. I knew then (and this was 30 years ago... guess I should have mentioned that).. I knew then that this was the military's stance, so it did not surprise me that any officers would feel this way, but to announce it publicly on a base did surprise me a bit, given the changes that were happening at the time.

I suspect things have changed a lot since then, but there's still that old guard who still view China as theirs, or at least home. It's an extremely complicated situation.

The question is, to what extent will Taiwan's military actually defend Taiwan? What is the current mindset of the military?

There must be literally thousands of Chinese spies in Taiwan, not counting KMT sympathizers.

Regarding KMT sympathizers, I think one of my posts we lost in the recent meltdown was regarding the historic KMT/military relationship, and resulting pro-China leaning of the Taiwan military. I mentioned this in that lost (I think) posting, so apologies for any redundancy, but...

When I taught English at a military academy in Taiwan, I once heard the class leader announce to the class (all officers) that if Taiwan declared independence, he would fight for China. Wow, I thought to myself. I knew then (and this was 30 years ago... guess I should have mentioned that).. I knew then that this was the military's stance, so it did not surprise me that any officers would feel this way, but to announce it publicly on a base did surprise me a bit, given the changes that were happening at the time.

I suspect things have changed a lot since then, but there's still that old guard who still view China as theirs, or at least home. It's an extremely complicated situation.

The question is, to what extent will Taiwan's military actually defend Taiwan? What is the current mindset of the military?

Yeah - it's a worry. Until recently - like our lifetimes in Taiwan - being a KMT spy was a normal, decent-paying public service department job. How many of those are burning with resentment - ready to activate?

It is the official military report - so it shows that they are aware of it. Presumably reforming it - or trying hard to. It's a high-stakes game of 'Who can you trust?' for any DPP govt and the generals.

Taiwan also knows a thing or two about computers and cyber stuff. They wouldn't be sitting around innocently waiting for a first-strike before thinking how to cyber-attack China back.

Taiwan News: The Financial Times on Saturday (Sept. 11) cited multiple sources as stating that the White House is "seriously considering" granting a request by Taiwan to change the name of its representative office in Washington from the “Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office” (TECRO) to the “Taiwan Representative Office.” According to the sources, White House Asia adviser Kurt Campbell supports the name change.

That's a good sign.

I still don't know why countries don't just recognize Taiwan. Remove 'a convenient lie' from the basis of foreign policy.

CANBERRA, Sept 17 (Reuters): Australia on Thursday said it would scrap the $40 billion deal with France's Naval Group to build a fleet of conventional submarines and would instead build at least eight nuclear-powered submarines with U.S. and British technology after striking a trilateral security partnership.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian described the decision as a stab in the back.

Strained Australia-French ties come as the United States and its allies seek additional support in the Asia and the Pacific amid concern about the rising influence of a more assertive China.

France is about to take over the presidency of the European Union, which on Thursday released its strategy for the Indo-Pacific, pledging to seek a trade deal with Taiwan and to deploy more ships to keep sea routes open.

It's not a good look for allies to be squabbling but i can see why Aus made that decision: if you're going up against nuclear-powered subs then you don't want to be puttering-around in a slower normal-sub.

It's not a time for niceties. There could be questions as to why they signed the deals with France in the first place though.

Still, it's imperative to keep France onside. France has a glorious history of Freedom. Work it out guys.

Meanwhile, the CCP is trying to contain a growing real estate meltdown, and people are getting nervous. Social unrest in China is one of the key ingredients that could push CCP towards moving on Taiwan.

One key issue: The Chinese urban middle class, one of the most important groups for Chinese Communist Party support, has invested heavily in property. As part of government housing reforms in the 1990s, urban residents were handed apartments that previously belonged to their work units, forming the cornerstone of their new wealth. That has made them enthusiastic property speculators and often resulted in large protests after local attempts to control prices—leading the authorities to back off.

Thanks to China’s extraordinary growth rates and the range of tools available to its central government, these problems have always just about stayed under control. But the concern with Evergrande is that it could be Beijing’s Lehman Brothers, pushing a long-brewing catastrophe over the edge. The government is doing its best to avoid that by unspooling the company slowly—through targeted interventions and conversations between regulators and debtors—rather than allowing a single moment of collapse.

But the concern with Evergrande is that it could be Beijing’s Lehman Brothers, pushing a long-brewing catastrophe over the edge.
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Apart from a military perspective - is the Evergrande collapse something that will have world-wide implications economically? Or is the main impact limited to China?

The thing about totalitarianism is that it's institutionalized corruption - it's surprising that something like this hasn't happened sooner. Well it probably has, but it's been managed off-stage.

The trouble with Jack Ma and the tech companies is interesting too - though different.

This is actually a nice story.

Taiwan News: Limassol, Cyprus (Sept. 28) The event's organizer International Association for the Development of Apnea (AIDA) suddenly yanked the Taiwan flag from the leader board on its live-streaming broadcast without warning.

AIDA International President Alexandru Russu apologized to the Taiwan team for the sudden change, explaining the decision was made after live streaming was blocked in China and said there was no plan to restore the flag.

Typical spineless one-everything official.

AIDA Japan then issued a post on Facebook requesting the event's organizers to also remove Japan's flag (saying) .. "this is the only small resistance we can make against the horrible political interference."

"Only Taiwan is disadvantaged. We wish to share the pain with Taiwan" and "not allow politics to interfere in our sport."

Subsequently, athletes from Russia, the U.S., Croatia, the Netherlands, Australia, South Korea, France, Germany, and Slovenia also requested their flags be removed to show solidarity with their Taiwanese competitors.

Separately, i see Anonymous hacked official PRC websites and inserted pro-Taiwan stuff.

This is actually very encouraging, that other athletes take this stand. This could be setting a precedent and could start a trend.

"However, AIDA Taiwan on Thursday issued a formal protest on its Facebook page condemning the organizer for failing to discuss or inform it about the change, the "reckless" method of dealing with Chinese censorship, and it warned that it sets a bad precedent that could lead to the flags of other countries being banned as well." (emphasis added)

But, again, the reaction of other athletes sets a good precedent for dealing with this sort of interference. China does not hold all the cards here, nor do other governments.

TAIPEI, Oct 7 (Reuters): The trips by four French senators and former Australian prime minister Tony Abbott come after four straight days, beginning last Friday, of massed Chinese air force incursions into Taiwan's air defence zone, moves met with concern by Washington and its allies.

Alain Richard discussed the "essential contribution of Taiwan in the important field of human progress".

In March, the Chinese embassy in Paris warned against lawmakers meeting Taiwanese officials, prompting a rebuff from the French foreign ministry, which said French senators are free to meet whomever they wish when they travel.

Sounds simple - pity a few more politicians didn't have the moral courage to do it. But it's a good sign.

I don't know about Joe - the ambiguity stuff - we're past that now surely. Why is it so hard to speak simple truths? Taiwan is a country.

Good on Reuters for reporting it. Meanwhile back in the most locked-down freedom restricted country on earth their ex-PM's trip to world's biggest hotspot did not even make the public-funded ABC news website. Nothing. To this day they have still not done a single story of the possibility Covid was a lab-leak. More important was this story: Wagga Wagga records first Covid case in a year and the usual vax-hesitant vilifying.

BBC: More than a dozen US sailors have been injured after a nuclear submarine hit an "unknown object" while submerged in waters around the South China Sea.

Unknown object? That's gotta be a Chinese sub or ship, right?

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The head editor of one of the Chinese Communist Party's largest propaganda outlets on Thursday (Oct. 7) called for an airstrike to "eliminate" Taiwan-based U.S. troops, who he described as "invaders."

On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal cited U.S. government officials as saying that over two dozen U.S. special operations soldiers and support troops are stationed in Taiwan to provide military training for ground forces. In addition, U.S. Marines are working with Taiwan's naval forces in "small-boat training." The officials stated that the American forces have been in Taiwan for over a year.

In his editorial, Hu (Global Times editor) wrote that the presence of American soldiers would justify activating China's Anti-Secession Law to "destroy and expel" them. The article stressed that the presence of U.S. soldiers in Taiwan is "a red-line that cannot be crossed and that this would be an opportunity for China to realize "reunification by force."

Tick-tock-tick-tock ...

The small-boat training is interesting. I remember from an earlier article that speed-boats may play a crucial role in an invasion.

Hmmm.. good point. I would imagine those subs are particularly good at avoiding hitting things under water. Could it have been a game of chicken that went too far?

Sounds simple - pity a few more politicians didn't have the moral courage to do it. But it's a good sign.

It is indeed, and it is yet another crack in the veneer of the status quo that has been so carefully maintained by the US and begrudgingly accepted by the CCP.

I don't know about Joe - the ambiguity stuff - we're past that now surely. Why is it so hard to speak simple truths? Taiwan is a country.

I never had any hope that Biden would somehow take any bold steps in any way on anything. Why can't the US elect a genuine, intelligent, brave leader? Trump was genuine, but cowardly and stupid. Biden is intelligent, but certainly not genuine nor brave.

Good on Reuters for reporting it.

I listen to a five minute English podcast of news headlines on NHK every morning, and more often than not Taiwan is in the news, and this is relatively new. It's a hot topic here now, at least on the NHK English channel. Of all the things in the world they could report on in that five minutes, Taiwan is probably the most frequently reported international story. Very interesting.

Chiu Kuo-cheng looks pretty tough - you'd have to be to be Defence Minister in Taiwan.

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BEIJING, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Beijing shoppers stocked up on cabbage, rice and flour for the winter on Wednesday, after the government urged people to keep stores of basic goods in case of emergencies

Could be for a lot of reasons - Covid lockdowns - winter storms - wars ...

That's odd. The fact that the announcement caused confusion indicates it's not normal. So why did they make it? What do they expect or plan to happen?

This has been a very active week with regards to news stories regarding Taiwan. The stories were largely upstaged by whatever that useless meeting of power brokers was in Europe regarding climate change.

But let's take a look at what has happened in the last seven days:

Big huge story #1:
MEPs defy Chinese pressure with visit to Taiwan
In a defiant move against China, seven members of the European Parliament have landed in Taipei for a three-day official mission to discuss disinformation and foreign electoral intervention.

This is a pretty astounding development. It made barely a ripple in the media but I don't remember anything like this happening in the last 25 years. It's remarkable.

Big huge story #2
U.S. No Longer Lists Foreign Troops on Taiwan as Trigger for China Conflict
The latest Pentagon report on the Chinese military has omitted the scenario of foreign troops being deployed on Taiwan in a list of actions that the U.S. military assessed could trigger conflict from China.

This seems to be a proactive strategic and diplomatic move in response to recent reports (which should also be on this list) that US forces are in Taiwan training their military. If the US continues to acknowledge that this presence could cause a Chinese invasion, then it accepts some responsibility if indeed an invasion happens. But now that it no longer acknowledges that, it has covered its ass. This, in effect, indirectly communicates that the US does accept that Chinese military action in the near future is very possible.

Big huge story #3
Would the U.S. defend Taiwan if China invades? Biden said yes. But it's complicated

The importance of this story isn't so much what Biden did or didn't say, or how much he can remember what he said, the importance of this story is that it is a national story in the US, and that Taiwan is slowly becoming a household name in the US, even though Americans still surely confuse it with Thailand. The issue of Taiwan is forcing itself on to the world stage against the wishes of world leaders, similar to how the question of a lab leak forced its way. Biden would probably be thrilled if Taiwan just sank into the ocean so he didn't have to deal with it. But that ain't gonna happen. Sorry Joe.

And there are many more stories just in the last few days. Here in Japan, Taiwan is in the news every single day, and it's always due to the potential for conflict with China.

It looks like between right now and 2027, at the latest, is a critical period. I believe there's a Taiwan election in 2024, and China may want to wait to see if the KMT wins before taking action. There's also a US election that year, although that won't matter much.

There is a big wildcard here, and that is the economy. If the Chinese economy or social structure starts breaking down, watch out. And that really is the big question here, the economy. If the currency markets start going crazy or equities dive, anything goes. If this real estate debt crisis in China blows up and people start turning on local governments, watch out.

That's an interesting analysis.

Big huge story #3
Would the U.S. defend Taiwan if China invades? Biden said yes. But it's complicated

The importance of this story isn't so much what Biden did or didn't say, or how much he can remember what he said, the importance of this story is that it is a national story in the US, and that Taiwan is slowly becoming a household name in the US, even though Americans still surely confuse it with Thailand.

That's interesting and funny. Though good on Biden for saying it. Why not? The 'ambiguity' has outlived it's usefulness - it only encourages China. Give the CCP leadership something to think about - do you want to risk losing your whole power stranglehold due to a war in Taiwan?

There's a big story on Reuters today - but it's one of those fancy presentation style ones that takes forever (more than a few seconds) to load so i lost patience with it. But got me thinking while i was waiting: the 'seize' an out-lying island might not be the way to go after all.

Although they could take Dong Sya (Pratas Is) without any trouble, and it would present US with a quandary over whether to defend it, the upshot would be that US would immediately take up positions around/on Taiwan to fortify it - making a full-scale invasion much more difficult, if not impossible.

Therefore, if China does act, it would likely go straight to a full invasion - then try to dig in.

The map of the Chinese sorties into Taiwan airspace are curious - basically all in the same area - around the south west - seems to be one flight south east of Orchid Island - but they're not exactly buzzing the 101. I'm no master war technician, but could this be a decoy strategy to drag focus down to this area while preparing for an invasion in a different spot? Maybe they will go straight for Taipei - the Palace Museum would be a great propaganda coup.

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In 2019, the Solomon Islands Govt switched recognition from Taiwan to China.

The normal way of things is China offers big bags of cash and govts greedily go for it - no more is said.

This is the dirty secret that lies at the heart of world politics - we know Taiwan is a democratic country - we know China is a totalitarian regime - we know we crap on about 'letting Freedom reign - but hey - look at all that money!

As a rule, nobody cares. But the changeover didn't go according to script in the Solomons.

News: Tensions have been flared by a rivalry between the islands of Malaita, the country’s most populous island, and Guadalcanal which are both part of the Solomons Islands.

Guadalcanal is home to the nation’s government which China has allegedly “bribed” to break ties with Taiwan. Malaita, meanwhile, receives aid from United States and Taiwan.

The Malaita province Premier, Mr Suidani, blasted the move saying the Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare had been offered a bribe to support the switch, which Mr Sogavare denied.

He has also defiantly maintained contact with the Taiwan authorities. As a result the province continues to receive outsized aid from Taipei and Washington.

The nation has two days of chaos, with rioting and looting in the capital Honiara and the burning of public buildings and shops.

Mr Suidani has accused Mr Sogavare of being in Beijing’s pocket, alleging he had “elevated the interest of foreigners above those of Solomon Islanders”.

“People are not blind to this and do not want to be cheated anymore.”

As a result, there has been rioting. Unfortunately, Chinese businesses have been attacked and set on fire - made the scapegoats of the local people's anger against big-power politics. It's believed that resentment against Covid restrictions has also fueled unrest.

It's an unlikely stretch to see Solomon Islands becoming a template for the world, but it shows there is a breaking point when you keep telling the people whoppers. A time comes when they don't believe a word you say. At that point you've lost control.

So, in effect, Australian troops will be serving China's interest.

Interesting question. Australia does follow the One-China policy of course - so is it earning trade points with China by re-enforcing that in Solomon?

Or is it there to fill a security vacuum that China may fill if they didn't go?

The story says the rogue island is getting US as well as Taiwanese support so it would be strange if Australia went against US strategy in the Pacific.

It's hard to believe in this day and age but they might even be there to do what they're saying publicly - just calm things down and keep the peace.

I'm all for throwing off the CCP influence and recognizing Taiwan, but none of us want to see Chinese people targeted because of their ethnicity.

I'm curious to see how it unfolds.

I'm all for throwing off the CCP influence and recognizing Taiwan, but none of us want to see Chinese people targeted because of their ethnicity.

Indeed. Not only is it tragic for the community, it promotes even greater government suppression. It's the sort of event that hands government a green light to take aggressive action.

Can you imagine if Taiwanese started targeting immigrant Chinese or China sympathizers? It would be horrible on the basic level of tribalism and common sense, but it would also be politically disastrous for Taiwan.

Wonder if this had something to do with it.
News: China has buckled under the weight of coal and energy shortages to resume directly buying the commodity from Australia for the first time in almost a year.

Buckled under the weight? Or simply started buying it again after Australia rode to China's rescue in the Solomon Islands?

Having a technologically advanced weapon is one thing - but if you've got a breakthrough the other side doesn't have... that's significant. Has been since the days of the catapult.

When i first saw news about hyper-sonic-weapons i thought ok, China's is testing the latest weapon-tech - not too surprised - but i didn't realize they are the world leaders in it.

Put that together with cyber-warfare/AI fighter capability - you've got a strong hand in WW3.

Defense News: It is widely acknowledged to be the leader in the field of hypersonic systems, having already fielded such weapons in the form of the DF-17 hypersonic glide vehicle.

The DF-17 HGV made its first public appearance at a military parade held in China’s capital Beijing in late 2019.

Lot of crazy shit happened in late 2019.

Hypersonic missiles can travel at 5 times the speed of sound, supposedly. That's 761 mph x 5 = 3805 mph (6124kph). Fast enough to evade missile defense systems.

Shame they couldn't do that with planes - i could fly to Taiwan in hour.

Put that together with cyber-warfare/AI fighter capability - you've got a strong hand in WW3.

And add to that the realization in the West that it's quickly losing influence and any window to take advantage of any advantage it still has.

Shame they couldn't do that with planes - i could fly to Taiwan in hour.

Shame we aren't putting all that technology to uses that might actually benefit humanity.

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