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The Vaccine Data War (General)

by dan @, Thursday, July 30, 2020, 16:26 (92 days ago)

I'm not antivax by any means. I got a flu shot last year just because I was in for a checkup and they offered it. It was the first time I'd had a flu shot, and I did have a pretty severe reaction that lasted two days (severe conjunctivitis, absolute blood red eyes). But I'm getting concerned about the push for this COVID vaccine. There's so much money involved, so much to be made, that although everyone says they're not cutting corners, I don't believe it.

To make matters more concerning, one of the candidate vaccines getting a lot of push uses mRNA technology, which is essentially, according to my understanding, a DNA-based vaccine. And, this technology has never been used before for a vaccine. It has been used for cancer. But we're talking about injecting this into literally billions of people. That's great if it works, but if there are delayed negative effects, it's not so good.

Phase three trials have begun for a mRNA vaccine being developed by Moderna. They began just last week, the end of July 2020. I have seen a lot of predictions that there will likely be a vaccine by late 2020 or early 2021. But according to what I've read, this stage of trials takes one year to complete. So the forces that be are pushing for a vaccine to be released before trials are truly finished. From a recent news story ----

From https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/27/dr-anthony-fauci-isnt-particularly-concerned-about-safe... July 27, 2020 (emphasis added):

"Moderna, which is working in collaboration with the NIH, announced earlier in the day that it began its late-stage trial for its vaccine. The trial will enroll at least 30,000 participants across at least 87 locations, according to ClinicalTrials.gov. Participants in the experimental arm will receive a 100 microgram dose of the potential vaccine on the first day and another 29 days later. Some patients will receive a placebo.

If approved by the Food and Drug Administration, Moderna’s experimental vaccine would be the first of its kind. Researchers will follow participants after the phase-three trial for one year to monitor the vaccine’s potential safety risks and two years to monitor its efficacy, Fauci said."

According to this schedule for the trial, this vaccine, to be truly deemed safe, won't be ready until July 2021 at the earliest. So we're looking at a minimum of one year without a safe vaccine. And yet, I often read pronouncements from politicians and health experts that a vaccine could be ready by the end of 2020 or early 2021. I think I'll hold off until those stage three trials are really finished, and then still do some research before allowing myself to be injected with a potion that messes with my DNA.

It sounds like great technology, and if it's truly safe and effective, I'll be at the front of the line.

EDIT: Here's another article: https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/07/moderna-begins-first-late-stage-us-trial-of-cov...

"Moderna has given the first doses of its experimental COVID-19 vaccine to participants in what will be a 30,000-person trial, as the United States moved into a new phase of the race to develop a vaccine by the start of next year." (emphasis added)

Again, if Phase three takes one year, starting in July of 2020, how could this be available by early of 2021?

Also, though I don't have a source at the moment, I have read and heard in the media that one way they are fast tracking these vaccines is by paying these companies to produce the vaccine for mass use before trials are complete. This is because it is that production phase that can take months once a vaccine has completed all trials. So the US govt. is giving hundreds of millions of dollars to some of these companies to actually start producing these vaccines without financial risk to the companies. If the vaccines fail to pass trials, they'll just be destroyed. It's a logical, sensible approach, but it also does add incentive to see the vaccines deemed safe.

The Vaccine Data War

by dan @, Friday, July 31, 2020, 11:16 (91 days ago) @ dan

Here is the page for the Moderna study on clinicaltrials.gov:

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04470427?cond=COVID-19&phase=2&fund=0&am...

It states the estimated study completion date as October 27, 2022. In fact, they're still recruiting for the study, so it appears that not even one person has gotten the jab for this phase three trial.

The Vaccine Data War

by dan @, Friday, July 31, 2020, 11:30 (91 days ago) @ dan

This just gets more suspect the more I look into it. Here's a video in which the doctor, in white coat and all, claims that results will be available "not until" November or December. But wait, according to clinicaltrials.gov, the trial won't be over until October 2022, two years later than what these TV personalities are saying.

So what gives?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UekD2Fvt2Ro

The Vaccine Data War

by dulan drift, Saturday, August 01, 2020, 08:03 (90 days ago) @ dan

Thanks for that research Dan - you've already uncovered a glaring contradiction in the information being disseminated as well as raising the RNA concerns.

If the narrative is, 'Take this - trust us it's fine!' then it's reasonable we examine if we really can trust those promoting the vaccines or not. As you said, there's a lot of money involved (and politics), and money makes people do funny things.

My attitude will be that i'd like to wait a few years to see how all the vaccines go - then i'll make a decision.

There will be a lot of shaming of anti-vaxxers going on but there have been several cases of vaccines either proving useless or even harmful. The Gulf War Syndrome is a good example:

Ms Humphreys, 39, from Dolgellau, north Wales, who suffers typical symptoms of the syndrome - severe headaches, nausea, muscular pain, joint swelling, short term memory loss and depression - said: "I believe the MoD has used us like guinea pigs to see how effective squalene is.

"There are no words to describe what they have done. It's just medically, morally and ethically wrong."

The Vaccine Data War

by dan @, Sunday, August 02, 2020, 12:04 (89 days ago) @ dulan drift

Yep, me too. I'm going to wait until the dust settles before deciding on a vaccine. My students may not be so lucky. They're required to get a flu vaccine every year before they can attend classes. It will be interesting to see what happens with this vaccine.

Russia Vaccine

by dulan drift, Tuesday, August 11, 2020, 20:32 (80 days ago) @ dan

Russia has approved the world's first vaccine after less than two months of testing.

Funny how it all devolved into a nationalistic pissing competition - at first it was a race to find a vaccine to save the world! It now seems there's no vaccine unless it's produced and endorsed by your political bloc.

Russia Vaccine

by dulan drift, Thursday, August 13, 2020, 06:18 (78 days ago) @ dulan drift

At least with the Russian vaccine we hear the criticisms from 'experts' that would normally be message-managed out of public earshot and branded as anti-vaxxer.

"Politics should have no role in the vaccine approval process in any country, as this would be playing with fire as experience with some historic vaccine programs has shown."

"(T)his vaccine could cause serious harm, not just to those who receive the vaccine, but to COVID-19 vaccine programs more generally."

"Both the Oxford vaccine and Sputnik V use adapted strains of the adenovirus, some of which can cause illnesses including bronchitis and pneumonia, to trigger an immune response."

"Vaccine development always has an element of risk-benefit analysis, Professor Purcell says."

"(Y)ou'd be stupid to run a vaccine trial for less than a year — 90 per cent of vaccines fall over between trials."

China Vaccine

by dulan drift, Saturday, August 15, 2020, 06:15 (76 days ago) @ dulan drift

"One vaccine under development by the pharmaceutical firm CanSino and the People's Liberation Army has already been cleared for use by the nation's military personnel."

Don't think i'll be queuing up to get a jab from the PLA!

Past problems with vaccines in China include:

2010: four children were killed and 74 others harmed in Shanxi province after receiving vaccines that had been improperly stored.

2016: revealed that tens of millions of dollars worth of expired vaccines were sold around the country for years.

Australia Vaccine

by dulan drift, Wednesday, August 19, 2020, 18:50 (72 days ago) @ dulan drift

Australian PM Scott Morrison, talking about a prospective vaccine, said he would "expect it to be as mandatory as you can possibly make it. There are always exemptions for any vaccine on medical grounds, but that should be the only basis."

He later walked back those comments somewhat but said measures would be introduced to "encourage" everyone to get it. Currently, there are financial penalties for parents who decline to have their children vaccinated.

I really don't see the fuss. Most people will take it so what do they care - it's supposed to provide immunity right? So anyone not taking it is not hurting anyone except possibly themselves.

H1N1 Vaccine fail

by dulan drift, Thursday, September 03, 2020, 18:53 (57 days ago) @ dulan drift

Here's an example of a vaccine that backfired:

"In 2009, Pandemrix, a rapidly-developed vaccine for H1N1 swine flu, lead to people developing the chronic sleep disorder narcolepsy."

Russia Vaccine

by dulan drift, Sunday, September 06, 2020, 21:16 (54 days ago) @ dulan drift

The announcement of a Russia vaccine attracted a lot of criticism but "so far, so good" is the verdict according to a Lancet paper after a trial on 38 participants. It did cause side effects including headaches and joint pain but nothing too serious supposedly.

I wonder if it did pass a bigger 'stage-3' trial, would America, Europe and China accept it - or will they still cling to their own versions? Or is that a stupid question?

There are 176 vaccine candidates being developed around the world. 34 are being tested on people. Eight are at stage three.

Oxford Vaccine Problem

by dulan drift, Wednesday, September 09, 2020, 10:41 (51 days ago) @ dulan drift

AstraZeneca, which is developing a high-profile vaccine with the University of Oxford, has paused trials due to a "potentially unexplained illness". A review will be conducted.

No details of the illness were supplied.

Australia has already agreed to purchase 33.8 million doses.

Oxford Vaccine Problem

by dulan drift, Wednesday, September 09, 2020, 18:37 (51 days ago) @ dulan drift

Update:
NY Times is reporting that a vaccine trial participant "had received a diagnosis of transverse myelitis, an inflammatory syndrome that affects the spinal cord and is often sparked by viral infections."

According to Mayo Clinic website:

"Transverse myelitis interrupts the messages that the spinal cord nerves send throughout the body. This can cause pain, muscle weakness, paralysis, sensory problems, or bladder and bowel dysfunction... Most people recover at least partially. Those with severe attacks sometimes are left with major disabilities."

Although "immune system disorders that attack the body's tissues" are listed as a major cause, it's not known whether the vaccine was the trigger in this instance - hence the investigation.

Oxford Vaccine Problem

by dan @, Wednesday, September 09, 2020, 18:52 (51 days ago) @ dulan drift

From the article:

Late-stage vaccine testing remains crucial, as large trials can turn up rare but serious side effects that would surface only if many thousands of people received a vaccine.

“This is the whole point of doing these Phase 2, Phase 3 trials,” said Dr. Phyllis Tien, an infectious disease physician at the University of California, San Francisco. “We need to assess safety, and we won’t know the efficacy part until much later. I think halting the trial until the safety board can figure out whether or not this was directly related to the vaccine is a good idea.” Emphasis added

Which is why the phase three part of the trial, which typically takes at least a year, is so important.

Oxford Vaccine Problem

by dan @, Wednesday, September 09, 2020, 18:40 (51 days ago) @ dulan drift

The politicization of this whole mess is going to make it so much worse than it needs to be. I'm going to wait a solid year at least before taking any vaccine. After all, that's when the stage three trials will end -- August 2021. And that's an expedited schedule for vaccines.

What a mess.

Message Management

by dulan drift, Friday, September 25, 2020, 10:22 (35 days ago) @ dan

Here we go. As governments fork out untold billions to pay for 'free' vaccines (ultimately it's not free - the taxpayer pays for it), we're now being told to "manage expectations".

"The first COVID-19 vaccine is unlikely to prevent people getting the disease and may only alleviate sufferers’ symptoms, scientists have told UK ministers."

Even at that dramatically lowered bar, which i never heard anyone talk about before, Professor Whitty believes a vaccine that is "40 to 60 per cent effective, is realistic."

One more reason to hold off on getting jabbed.

Dodgy China vaccines

by dulan drift, Sunday, September 27, 2020, 07:26 (33 days ago) @ dulan drift

"The most recent case was in 2018, when Changsheng Biotechnology Co. came under investigation for falsifying records and making ineffective rabies vaccines for children.

In 2017, Wuhan Institute of Biological Products Co., a CNBG subsidiary behind one of the vaccines in phase 3 trials, was found to have made defective diphtheria vaccines that were ineffective."

The financial incentive for just getting something out there, anything, is massive. If it doesn't work then later we can say:

'In the battle against an evolving, unprecedented virus, vaccine development is not an exact science, it's an ongoing process.'

The message will be - that one didn't work - but how about trying this new one!?

Dodgy China vaccines

by dan @, Sunday, September 27, 2020, 15:29 (33 days ago) @ dulan drift

That's exactly right. The drug companies have a pre-paid get out of jail card. After all, if their vaccine is given the green light, then the governments are complicit if anything goes wrong, and those governments are going to turn on the spin full bore to avoid any blame on anybody if people suffer negative effects or if the vaccine is useless, hence leading to a false sense of security which would then lead to people not taking precautions and, as a result, the virus spreading like wildfire.

A bad vaccine could not only hurt people, it could make the pandemic much, much worse. This is an absolute shit show.

Is Breast Milk the best vaccine?

by dulan drift, Tuesday, September 29, 2020, 18:48 (31 days ago) @ dan

"Researchers from the Beijing University of Chemical Technology found that whey proteins from human breast milk can inhibit the coronavirus by “blocking viral attachment, entry and even post-entry viral replication”. Human whey had an inhibition efficiency of about 98 per cent.

In the study Tong Yigang, a professor of microbiology and epidemiology, and his colleagues exposed healthy cells in human breast milk to the virus. They observed almost no viral binding or entry to these cells, and the halting of viral replication in cells that were already infected."

According to Dan's 'slug-slime' theory - that's got zero hope of getting up as cure/vaccine. How the fuck is anyone supposed to make billions out of something that can't be patented?

Vaccines problematic for old people

by dulan drift, Wednesday, October 14, 2020, 17:04 (16 days ago) @ dulan drift

This is a detailed article - destined to be ignored by 'the experts' - that questions the basecamp thinking of the drive to find a vaccine.

The first point is: “There is not one vaccine that can provide 100% efficacy, not one, nada.”

The next point is: Old people have degraded immune systems.

Given vaccine shots are all about fiddling with the immune system to get a result - this gravely complicates the process.

It may well be that the magical 'vaccine' works for a limited period with those that don't need it, the young, with their robust immune systems. But may be fatal to old people.

Whatever 'the vaccine' is - it won't be a silver bullet: we all take it once - Covid goes away.

It's a series of shots - that's just initially.

It will then be a perpetual yearly mega-industry of drugs, fear and control - register your details - line up for your shots.

If it doesn't even protect the vulnerable, is the underlying logic of it a giant con?

Personally, I'd like to know how the virus originated before i take any vaccine.

If it did leak from a Wuhan lab, which still seems like the Occam's Razor answer, where they were manipulating harmless bat viruses to make them super contagious - then do i want a lab manipulated vaccine (containing elements of the disease) to counter that lab engineered virus?

Maybe, but i'd like to take a few years to think about it.

Vaccines problematic for old people

by dan @, Wednesday, October 14, 2020, 18:58 (16 days ago) @ dulan drift

If it did leak from a Wuhan lab, which still seems like the Occam's Razor answer, where they were manipulating harmless bat viruses to make them super contagious - then do i want a lab manipulated vaccine (containing elements of the disease) to counter that lab engineered virus?

This is the $10,000 question.

The next point is: Old people have degraded immune systems.

And I would rate this as the $8,000 question, still very respectable.

I think a good vaccine is a godsend, but I don't think we should trust them blindly, like we do, say, postage stamps.

Before coming to Taiwan in late 1989 I started getting the first of three vaccine shots for hepatitis, what was it, B? It was the one that was endemic in Taiwan at the time. In fact, Taiwan had the highest rates of Hep B (?) in the world at the time, and it was basically fatal, usually leading to liver cancer. So, yeah, I got the vaccine, or at least the first shot, before leaving the US.

I went to a clinic in Kaohsiung after arriving to get the follow-ups, and the doctor confirmed that it was indeed endemic. What's more, she had herself tested before getting the vaccine, and found that she had acquired a natural immunity. So, due, apparently, to low dose exposure, she had acquired natural immunity to this deadly virus that was a top killer at the time, via liver cancer, in Taiwan.

So it is a very complex issue. Can taking a vaccine actually mess with an immune system that would otherwise fend off the disease? To what extent do we overgeneralize on the need for vaccination? When does it do more harm than good, and visa versa?

Vaccines problematic for old people

by dulan drift, Friday, October 16, 2020, 08:26 (14 days ago) @ dan


So it is a very complex issue. Can taking a vaccine actually mess with an immune system that would otherwise fend off the disease? To what extent do we overgeneralize on the need for vaccination? When does it do more harm than good, and visa versa?

That's a lot of dollars worth of good questions. Unfortunately the water has gotten so muddied by other things that we may never know the answers with full confidence.

These water muddiers include:
1. Nationalism (our vaccine is better than yours)
2. Big pharma greed (leading to a fudging of the efficacy figures)
3. Narrative construction (a vaccine will be the world's saviour - also deflates the impetus to find out what caused the virus in the first place - not that there's any mainstream media interest in that anyway)

Correction: I mentioned that WIV was manipulating "harmless bat viruses" to make them more contagious to humans - although that's true - that wasn't the case with RaTG13, the closest known match to SARS nCov-2, which was kept at WIV, and appears to have not been harmless even in it's natural form.

There's an interesting article that traces RaTG13 to a Yunan cave and links it to a small outbreak in 2012 that killed several miners who were cleaning the cave of bat feces. The authors hypothesize that this virus, which was collected and stored at WIV, could have mutated in those that it infected - they lived for over 100 days - and may have been 'ready-to-go' without requiring manipulation. The virus was considered non-extant in nature, so it's source would still be an escape from an Wuhan lab, but it may not have required any additional engineering.

I'll try to look at this and other hypothesis in more detail in a different thread but just wanted to make the correction here.

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