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Recent 4+ earthquakes (General)

by dan @, Saturday, February 17, 2018, 19:45 (32 days ago)

Just in the last 24 hours there have been 3 4+ earthquakes around Japan and 1 in Taitung. This is after a few days of relative quiet after the earlier activity in Taiwan.

I've been watching the big picture on and indeed it quieted down around the entire 'ring of fire' over the last few days until yesterday when it started heating up again across the board. The biggest news today was the 7.2 earthquake in Mexico.

Recent 4+ earthquakes

by dulan drift, Saturday, February 17, 2018, 20:04 (31 days ago) @ dan

I will be keeping a close eye on the local scene - don't worry about that!

Any uptick in a particular area right now could very likely be foreshock activity

Seems we substantially settled the question about 'Why isn't there any official guidance?' so it's all DIY prediction at this point

Recent 4+ earthquakes

by dan @, Tuesday, February 20, 2018, 12:00 (29 days ago) @ dulan drift

Recent 4+ earthquakes

by dulan drift, Tuesday, February 20, 2018, 12:09 (29 days ago) @ dan


Is that where you are?

Recent 4+ earthquakes

by dan @, Tuesday, February 20, 2018, 12:56 (29 days ago) @ dulan drift

Not quite, but if it's an 8.5, we're certainly close enough to feel it and probably get some of the tsunami. Aomori is the northernmost country on the main island south of Hokkaido. The nearest real town near us is Hachinohe, which was hit by the 2011 tsunami.

Recent 4+ earthquakes

by dan @, Tuesday, February 20, 2018, 13:27 (29 days ago) @ dan

My school is going to have an earthquake drill in a couple weeks, and this was among the information I got:

"Do not move to another location or outside. Earthquakes occur without any warning and may be so violent that you cannot run or crawl. You are more likely to be injured if you try to move around during strong shaking. Also, you will never know if the initial jolt will turn out to be start of the big one...and that’s why you should always Drop, Cover, and Hold On immediately!" (Emphasis added)

My question is, how do they know that, "You are more likely to be injured if you try to move around during strong shaking"? Have they surveyed people? Is this based on any facts? Or is it just common assumption that gets recycled? All those victims they pull from buildings, did it really matter if they were moving or not?

I've been a a few really big earthquakes, like three I think, and the first thing that comes to mind is to get the hell out of the building because it's coming down!

"Do not move to another location." Really? Even if I'm next to a tall bookshelf or plate glass window?

I think the survival instinct to get out of the deathtrap that some buildings are is a good one. At least the closer you get to the outside, the better chance you have of being rescued if it does come down.

Recent 4+ earthquakes

by dulan drift, Tuesday, February 20, 2018, 16:10 (29 days ago) @ dan

That's an interesting point and yes, you wonder what real-event evidence it's based on - it would be nice to know what is the best method

In the three examples you mentioned, did you actually have time to exit the building before the quake had finished?

I've had three earthquake (two were quite unnerving) experiences where things have started smashing (technically four big ones but one of them I was on the beach). Of those three, two were in high-rise buildings - and you're right, that instinct to get out is strong but in the first of those that just led me out onto the balcony - then came an aftershock and I realized that the balcony may not be the safest place and between shocks I went down seven flights of stairs and got out of the building - where everyone was milling around - by that time it was pretty much over

The second time was on the fifth floor of a department store - in the glassware and ceramics section! (which amplified the drama but actually it was the least serious quake of the three Lots of stuff smashing and people screaming - but there was no way to really make a run for it. The good news was that as it struck, I was admiring a very nice, but expensive glass bowl - which miraculously survived the quake - apart from a a small chip - for which I got a very good discount from a startled sales lady once the pandemonium had subsided

The third was here in a one-floor steel and tin hut - I did move outside - but actually - in that situation I realized that a tin house (though not ideal in a typhoon) is pretty much earthquake-proof so I spent the time after the main bump just securing things that hadn't already smashed

One thing that might help is to start cluing people into fore-shock patterns. There were two 6M's before the 8.1 in Japan in the preceding two days. Could it be that it's when this relatively common pattern starts, that it would be a good time to exit the building, rather than waiting around for the big one?

Recent 4+ earthquakes

by dan @, Tuesday, February 20, 2018, 19:20 (29 days ago) @ dulan drift

In fact, no, I didn't. In the first instance, San Francisco 1989, I did indeed start running for the stairs and barely kept my balance as doing so, and as a young man then too! By the time I got to the hallway, the initial action was over.

The second time was a very similar situation, third floor of a wood frame building, this time in Chiayi County. This was I think a 6.4 or something, and really right under us as we vacationed in the mountains. We were as close to the epicenter as anyone. This felt stronger than the SF quake because I was closer to it. It didn't make much news in Taiwan at the time. I think two people died in the village we were in.

When it hit, my wife was on the balcony of our hotel room, and my first thought was, God, get inside before that balcony falls off. By the time she was in, we just held on until it was over. So, yeah, going onto a balcony is a not a good idea. They tend to collapse.

That was a frightening quake. Roads were all closed, landslides for a couple days around us, very unsettling, haha. Helicopters came to take the dead and injured out. Oddly, that was the one time in my life I traveled without a flashlight or candle. I regretted it as I heard things scurrying around in the absolute pitch black of night. This was up in the mountains in a village called Ruili.

The other time would have been the pair of 6+ quakes that hit Pingtung County in the mid 90's I think. It's the one that cut a main communications cable to Hong Kong and cut off Internet to a lot of folks at the time. Again, too fast to take any meaningful action.

Still, I'm not sure about the advice to 'stay in place'. I still think getting the heck out of a structure before it falls down, if possible, is the best thing to do.

Recent 4+ earthquakes

by dulan drift, Wednesday, February 28, 2018, 17:49 (21 days ago) @ dan

Great stories! Glad you lived to tell the tale(s)

Meanwhile earthquakes continue to rock the planet - a 7.5 in Papua New Guinea - the biggest ever recorded there

Early reports indicate lots of casualties - 15 confirmed dead at this stage - but with whole villages buried in landslides that's bound to rise significantly


Recent 4+ earthquakes

by dulan drift, Friday, March 02, 2018, 20:30 (18 days ago) @ dulan drift

Over 30 reported dead now in the PNG 7.5 quake

Seems to have been a geological altering event with some massive landslides




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