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Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien (General)

by dulan drift, Sunday, February 04, 2018, 21:50 (77 days ago)

Started at 3.30 this morning with twin 4+ quakes a minute apart, then a 3+ at 8.36pm, then a 5.1 just 36 minutes later. The 3+ was slightly further north, but the others were in almost the exact same location in northern Hualien. All of them relatively shallow

This is a very similar pattern to what happened here - a building sequence - no doubt anyone sitting on top of these quakes today is starting to feel pretty damn nervous and wondering where it's all going

[image]

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dulan drift, Sunday, February 04, 2018, 22:47 (77 days ago) @ dulan drift

Just finished writing the above when a 5.8 hit in the same spot in Hualien near the border of Yilan!

Followed by several more quakes including another 5+

All very shallow

Getting quakes almost every minute there after the 5.8

All the below have happened since my original post!

[image]

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dulan drift, Monday, February 05, 2018, 08:44 (77 days ago) @ dulan drift

Aftershocks continued all night, which is normal, though there were an awful lot of them - 20 or more

Assume the 5.8 was peak movement

Of course radio silence again from all the earthquake academics - for me that's scandalous that they're enjoying these comfortable careers at the taxpayers' expense, making zero breakthroughs in their research, and offering no guidance at a time when local earthquakes are going off the charts

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dan @, Monday, February 05, 2018, 10:52 (76 days ago) @ dulan drift

Here's an earthquake map that would seem to suggest, at least intuitively if not scientifically, that Japan is due for an earthquake:

http://url.site25.net/6r

Taiwan does seem to be the main point of activity globally over the last week.

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dulan drift, Monday, February 05, 2018, 13:54 (76 days ago) @ dan

Yeah this was another notable fore-shock situation - recently the east coast fault line has been particularly active

Meanwhile, aftershocks are continuing at a ridiculous rate. Even now they are getting quakes every 30 minutes or so - it's a record apparently in terms of the number of quakes in a sequence

Interestingly there was a super moon recently - which feeds into the theory that extra slosh of king tides can trigger quakes in an area that is already on the edge

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dulan drift, Monday, February 05, 2018, 15:22 (76 days ago) @ dulan drift

See there is a spring tide for North-west Taipei at the moment - see if that sets off anything

Hualien quake looks to have died down finally to a dull roar - still getting aftershocks but back around the 3M range

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dulan drift, Tuesday, February 06, 2018, 18:07 (75 days ago) @ dulan drift

And on it goes!

It was already record breaking in terms of number of quakes in the sequence yesterday - and it's continued on with quakes virtually every hour or more since then - including another 5M - in fact it seems to have ramped back up today after a brief lull yesterday afternoon

This is unchartered territory and something major and unprecedented is playing out

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dan @, Tuesday, February 06, 2018, 19:20 (75 days ago) @ dulan drift

I wonder if some of those natural hot springs aren't bubbling more than usual.

It's been fairly quiet up here recently, at least since the big one we had a week or so ago.

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dulan drift, Wednesday, February 07, 2018, 00:22 (75 days ago) @ dan

Just had a 6M in the same area!

This level of activity is unprecedented and government officials and so called experts have no idea what's going on

All day they have been reassuring people that the worst was over and everything was 'normal' but it obviously isn't


Unbelievably, they still haven't closed Su Hwa Highway or evacuated anyone from the epicentre zone

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dulan drift, Wednesday, February 07, 2018, 00:28 (75 days ago) @ dulan drift

Reports of buildings collapsed in Hualien city!

3 more aftershocks - including a 5M

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dulan drift, Wednesday, February 07, 2018, 00:37 (75 days ago) @ dulan drift

1st and 2nd floor of hotel has crumbled in Hualien - no reports of casualties as yet

This is becoming a major goof by officialdom - people are terrified naturally after four days of earthquakes - but getting no guidance at all from whole universities full of seismic 'experts'

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dulan drift, Wednesday, February 07, 2018, 00:55 (75 days ago) @ dulan drift

Aftershocks every few minutes now and all frightfully shallow - God knows where this is heading

In 20 years I've never seen anything like this in terms of sustained seismic activity - I wonder if the world has seen anything like it before

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dan @, Wednesday, February 07, 2018, 04:00 (75 days ago) @ dulan drift

Wow. You'd think they would treat this as an ongoing event, the ongoing event that it is.

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dulan drift, Wednesday, February 07, 2018, 07:30 (75 days ago) @ dan

Wow. You'd think they would treat this as an ongoing event, the ongoing event that it is.

Exactly, it's a classic head in the sand scenario.

The same way the government never got around to closing Su Hwa Highway until two two buses got swept off it in a typhoon - they are waiting for someone to die until they act

Apparently CWB sent a threatening legal notice to a guy who is into predicting earthquakes who'd also red-flagged this sequence - saying he was causing public panic

If 100 earthquakes over a four day period is not going to cause panic then I doubt some guy online asking CWB to release the ULF data is going to do it

Meanwhile, the earthquakes have continued all night at the rate of one every 10 minutes - they just had a 4.5 - all of them shallow

It's at a point now, with such unprecedented activity, that anything would seem possible - including a monster 9M quake

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dan @, Wednesday, February 07, 2018, 07:50 (75 days ago) @ dulan drift

There must be a lot of political pressure not to suggest that there is an increased risk of earthquakes. I mean, heaven forbid there are any tourists dollars lost. Better to lose the tourists after they've paid for the room.

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dulan drift, Wednesday, February 07, 2018, 08:04 (75 days ago) @ dan

Just read that the Premier has ordered urgent repairs to a highway closed by the quake - I presume it's the Su Hwa

Fuck me! Get those guys out of there! Don't worry about keeping the road open until someone has got a handle on what we're dealing with here - it's outrageous that they are sending workers into a situation like that just to keep a road open


Although it was called a 6M by CWB, the US has called it a 6.4

Despite the Taipei Times stupidly reporting no casualties or damage, pictures are emerging of pretty extensive damage with two people confirmed dead so far

4 buildings have toppled, including two hotels, and a bridge has twisted and become unusable

[image]


[image]

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dulan drift, Wednesday, February 07, 2018, 08:20 (75 days ago) @ dulan drift

They are still getting quakes there every 10 minutes

Reports of 2 dead and 100 people injured - I suspect that's going to go up


Video of a collapsed building

https://youtu.be/-L6qpsb2FgU

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dulan drift, Wednesday, February 07, 2018, 13:09 (74 days ago) @ dulan drift

Still earthquakes galore, including a 4.8 at 5km depth

They are occurring at a rate of several per hour

CWB has finally admitted that maybe this is not 'normal' after all

Watched some of the tv footage and was struck by the extreme bravery of the rescuers - working tirelessly to get people out of partially collapsed buildings even as Hualien city continues to get rocked by almost continuous earthquakes

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dulan drift, Wednesday, February 07, 2018, 13:17 (74 days ago) @ dulan drift

Footage of the aftermath of the earthquake

They are now saying 4 confirmed dead and 183 missing - so unfortunately we can expect the death toll to rise in the next couple of days

https://tw.news.appledaily.com/local/realtime/20180207/1293652/

[image]

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dulan drift, Wednesday, February 07, 2018, 23:50 (74 days ago) @ dulan drift

Still going strong - been earthquakes every half hour at least all day long and just had another 5.7

That's around 6 earthquakes of 5M or more

In 1951 they had 3 x 7+M in Hualien which went onto trigger 6-7M quakes on another three separate faults all down the coast as far as Taidong city

The concern is that it will repeat that pattern.

I feel there is a high likelihood it will trigger at least a 5M in my area at some stage in the next few weeks - the question is whether it's still escalating in Hualien and is there a 7M in the works there or has it maxed out at the 6M of last night

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dan @, Thursday, February 08, 2018, 06:11 (74 days ago) @ dulan drift

And it looks like they're still going strong this morning. Amazing.

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dulan drift, Thursday, February 08, 2018, 10:13 (73 days ago) @ dan

5.8 last night and a 4.8 this morning plus a stack of others - this is like one long five-day earthquake

I suspect there's at least one more big one left in this sequence for Hualien

Then, according to previous history, the whole show could move south to Taidong

Amazing bravery shown by the rescuers to be getting people out of buildings while major quakes still happening with alarming regularity

Massive goof by CWB who called the peak of the sequence with the 5.8M (US 6.1) quake three nights ago and told everyone to relax and that the main danger had passed - given the unprecedented level of activity it was a mind-bogglingly stupid call

[image]

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dan @, Thursday, February 08, 2018, 15:44 (73 days ago) @ dulan drift

Here's an interesting graphic. Note that these all have been in the last week. From http://url.site25.net/6s.

[image]

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dulan drift, Friday, February 09, 2018, 00:42 (73 days ago) @ dan

Nice graphic - maybe there's something in that earth wobbling on its axis theory!

Here's a great photo from Hualien - including some good ol' Taiwan know-how with the way they've propped it up - imagine doing that job in the midst of all the aftershocks!

[image]

And a graphic for the 1951 sequential event showing how it's path played out down the Rift Valley in the space of a couple of months

[image]

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dan @, Friday, February 09, 2018, 05:56 (73 days ago) @ dulan drift

Whoa! I wonder who drew the short straw on that one!

That second graphic is very telling. I'd have an evacuation bag packed if I were you. Actually, you might be better of right where you are, unless that mountain decides to shift.

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dan @, Friday, February 09, 2018, 12:49 (72 days ago) @ dan

Well the last couple today do seem to be creeping south a bit. It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks.

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dulan drift, Friday, February 09, 2018, 16:52 (72 days ago) @ dan

Helluva lot of 'earthquake clouds' around - for the past month really, since the Jan 1 quakes here

This set is just north of Green Island around noon - have also seen a lot up towards Hualien or Cheng Gong (hard to judge) as well as to the south west around Luye (roughly)

[image]

Given the historical patterns, it would be wise for people living along the coast from Hualien to Taidong to be on alert

People think there's nothing you can do to prepare for an earthquake but there are a few things

The main one is use metal brackets to attach your large upright bits of furniture to the wall

You can also tape cupboards closed if you there's an upsurge in activity

The recent earthquakes do seem to be marked by a series of fore-shocks so despite what the experts say, you can forecast a big one to some extent

If we start getting any movement here then I will be very concerned

Here are a few more examples from the previous week

[image]

[image]

[image]

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dan @, Friday, February 09, 2018, 21:10 (72 days ago) @ dulan drift

OK, so I Googled it but didn't come up with much. What are the hallmarks of an earthquake cloud?

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dulan drift, Saturday, February 10, 2018, 01:21 (72 days ago) @ dan

OK, so I Googled it but didn't come up with much. What are the hallmarks of an earthquake cloud?

The layered style

Elongated and layered

Quite beautiful actually

Here's one that someone else took in Hualien

[image]

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dan @, Sunday, February 11, 2018, 11:20 (70 days ago) @ dulan drift

Interesting.

I have no idea if this is at all relevant to the recent activity in Taiwan, but there was a 4.9 earthquake on the Northern Marianas island of Agrihan yesterday. Agrihan is a small island which is just the crown of a massive volcano sticking out of the ocean.

This area sees very little seismic activity, but occasionally it has massive earthquakes. A few years ago an 8.1 hit Guam. It was the largest earthquake in the world that year.

I've been watching this site: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/. It defaults to a view of North America but you can zoom out to a world view.

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dulan drift, Sunday, February 11, 2018, 15:16 (70 days ago) @ dan

Interesting site - do you have any idea how the current activity compares with the 'normal' level of activity?

There has been a noticeable drop-off of tremors in the Hualien zone in the last 48 hours - but still waiting to see if it will have a trigger effect further south down the Rift Valley

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dan @, Sunday, February 11, 2018, 15:24 (70 days ago) @ dulan drift

I actually just started monitoring that site when recent activity in Hualien started, and there was more activity in other parts of the 'ring of fire' during last week. I mean, that's entirely unscientific of course, but it piqued my interest in looking at the big picture.

During the Hualien activity, there was a lot going on in Alaska. It has quieted down across the board in the last couple of days, with the exception being that quake in the Marianas, which is a little unusual.

Escalating Earthquake Sequence Hualien

by dulan drift, Wednesday, February 14, 2018, 08:35 (68 days ago) @ dan

It has quieted down across the board in the last couple of days, with the exception being that quake in the Marianas, which is a little unusual.

I was just thinking that myself - but checked this morning and there's been another spike in activity at the same location - 4 quakes in the last half hour including 2 x 4M - so maybe this show is not over yet

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