Southern Front + typhoon (Weather)

by dan, Saturday, June 14, 2014, 18:42 (3602 days ago) @ dan

Hello Hagibis

It looks like Hagibis is going to be a fast and unpredictable runner.

B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU
48 THEN THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS
POLEWARD OF THE STR AXIS INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH
OF THE STR. GFS, GFDN AND HWRF SHOW A STRONGER STR AND DEPICT A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO TAIWAN BEFORE TURNING THE SYSTEM
NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND. NAVGEM, ECMWF AND JGSM INDICATE A WEAKER
STR AND TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND.
ALL THESE MODELS INDICATE DISSIPATION OVER LAND. THE SOLE OUTLIER IS
COAMPS-TC WHICH TRACKS A 35- TO 45-KNOT SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD (INTO
THE STR) OVER WATER TOWARD TAIWAN. BASED ON UPPER-AIR DATA, THE JTWC
FORECAST FAVORS A NORTHWARD TRACK, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK DUE TO POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE NORTHEAST TURN. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24 BUT IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND PRIOR TO RE-EMERGING OVER THE EAST
CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 72.//

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