new typhoon building (Weather)

by dan, Friday, September 21, 2012, 08:58 (4245 days ago) @ dulan drift

What a difference a few hours makes. Jelawat is now predicted to take a a NW track. But it looks like a very uncertain track. This looks like it will be a fun one to follow, From JTWC:

THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY INTO A TYPHOON PRIOR TO TAU 72. AFTER THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH PASSES, THE STR WILL REBUILD AND START TO TURN 18W TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. SOME OF THE SPREAD
IS ATTRIBUTED TO DIFFERENCES IN SPEED, WHILE SOME MODELS APPEAR TO
OVER-ANALYZE THE IMPACT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND TURN THE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AS A RESULT. DUE TO THIS LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

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